2010 Progress Report: Impact of Climate Change on Air Quality in the U.S.: Investigations With Linked Global- and Regional-Scale ModelsEPA Grant Number: R833377
Title: Impact of Climate Change on Air Quality in the U.S.: Investigations With Linked Global- and Regional-Scale Models
Investigators: Sillman, Sanford , Keeler, Gerald J. , Penner, Joyce
Institution: University of Michigan
EPA Project Officer: Hunt, Sherri
Project Period: February 1, 2007 through January 31, 2010 (Extended to January 31, 2012)
Project Period Covered by this Report: February 1, 2010 through January 31,2011
Project Amount: $899,468
RFA: Consequences of Global Change For Air Quality (2006) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Global Climate Change , Climate Change , Air
The project will use global and regional-scale models for chemistry and transport to investigate the impact of future climate and emissions on air quality in the United States, with focus on ozone and mercury. It will use models that include gasphase and aqueous photochemistry and an updated representation of the interaction between aerosols and tropospheric chemistry. A major focus will be on observation-based methods – an attempt to identify atmospheric measurements that can be used to estimate the impact of climate change and global increases in emissions on air quality.
Work has focused on the global-scale simulation for current conditions (1997/2001). Results showed that the model is able to match the observed increase in ozone with temperature in the United States, and also matches with measured correlations between reactive nitrogen species (PAN, HNO3) and temperature.
During the final year of the project, we expect to complete the following tasks:
- Simulations for the year 2050 in a global-scale model.
- Evaluations of changes in measured species concentrations between 2001 and 2050 as evidence for identifying changes as they happen.
- Evaluation of predicted correlations between O3 and CO and O3 and PAN in comparison with measurements, and its use to identify the impact of transport.
- Publication of results pertaining to (i) tracers for identifying transport of ozone and measurements of evidence for transport; and (ii) SOA model and predicted effect on climate.
- In comparison with the original plan, the project has developed comparisons with measured O3 versus temperature somewhat ahead of schedule. The project is behind schedule in the addition of mercury to the global-scale model, and in the development of regional simulations linked to the global model for current conditions.
Journal Articles on this Report : 2 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
|Other project views:||All 15 publications||6 publications in selected types||All 6 journal articles|
||Ito A, Sillman S, Penner JE. Global chemical transport model study of ozone response to changes in chemical kinetics and biogenic volatile organic compounds emissions due to increasing temperatures:sensitivities to isoprene nitrate chemistry and grid resolution. Journal of Geophysical Research 2009;114(D9):D09301 (19 pp.).||
||Steiner AL, Davis AJ, Sillman S, Owen RC, Michalak AM, Fiore AM. Observed suppression of ozone formation at extremely high temperatures due to chemical and biophysical feedbacks. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 2010;107(46):19685-19690.||
Supplemental Keywords:RFA, Air, climate change, Air Pollution Effects, Atmosphere
Relevant Websites:http://www-personal.umich.edu/~sillman/obm.htm Exit