2007 Progress Report: Health Risks from Climate Variability and Change in the Upper Midwest: a Place-based Assessment of Climate-related Morbidity

EPA Grant Number: R832750
Title: Health Risks from Climate Variability and Change in the Upper Midwest: a Place-based Assessment of Climate-related Morbidity
Investigators: Patz, Jonathan , Anderson, Henry A. , Hanrahan, Lawrence , Holloway, Tracey , Kanarek, Marty , Li, Bo , Mearns, Linda , Sain, Steve , Vavrus, Steve , Wahba, Grace
Current Investigators: Patz, Jonathan , Anderson, Henry A. , Chipman, Jonathan , Hanrahan, Lawrence , Holloway, Tracey , Kanarek, Marty , Mearns, Linda , Tebaldi, Claudia , Vavrus, Steve , Wahba, Grace
Institution: University of Wisconsin Madison , National Center for Atmospheric Research , Wisconsin Department of Health and Family Services
EPA Project Officer: Chung, Serena
Project Period: February 1, 2006 through January 31, 2009
Project Period Covered by this Report: January 1, 2007 through December 31,2007
Project Amount: $598,560
RFA: The Impact of Climate Change & Variability on Human Health (2005) RFA Text |  Recipients Lists
Research Category: Health , Climate Change , Global Climate Change , Health Effects

Objective:

To evaluate the morbidity effects of current weather variability, we consider temperature and precipitation extremes. Based on our prior climate-health studies, we hypothesize that morbidity will parallel temperature mortality trends. To project the morbidity effects of future climate change, we will combine present-day risk factors with high resolution regional climate model (RCM) fields for the period 2040-2070. We will adjust for adaptation considering air conditioning projections and urban heat response planning.We hypothesize that the net effect of hot- and cold-related morbidity in Wisconsin and Chicago will depend on the duration and intensity of summertime stagnant air masses and wintertime arctic air surges, as well as precipitation extremes, air conditioning use and improved heat wave disaster planning. Expected intensification of the hydrologic cycle in combination with higher maximum summer temperatures could increase potential health risks from recreational waters. The regional conclusions from this study will inform the development of a Reduced-form Model for integrated decision support, facilitating a low-cost transfer of these analysis methods to other study regions and time periods.

Approach:

We will run time-series analyses and utilize extreme value theory (“ExtRemeToolkit”) to compare multiple climate and air pollution data to hospital and emergency room admissions from 1989 to 2004 across the 5 largest cities in Wisconsin plus Chicago. To more directly assess climate-related waterborne diseases (frequently unreported) we include analysis of environmental data and reported beach advisories/closings from bacterial contaminants. Future regional climate scenarios will utilize the most updated climate change projections derived in a multi-model ensemble framework, through the analysis of multiple General Circulation Models (GCMs) and downscaled climate from RCMs under the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Project (NARCCAP) led by NCAR.

Progress Summary:

We have developed a statistical predictive model of heat waves and morbidity for Milwaukee, the largest city in Wisconsin, and have completed downscaled climate change projections for the region. We have analyzed the longest (30-year) climate / coliform record in Wisconsin (Lake Geneva) and have published the papers below.

Expected Results:

Partnering with the Wisconsin Department of Health and Family Services, through their established Health Alert Network and Public Health Information Network, we will have the broad and fully integrated stakeholder engagement required to expedite science-based health policy improvements. Our interdisciplinary team expects to advance understanding of the interactive effects of multiple climate parameters and extremes and – by including adaptive responses and socio-demographic projections –produce a credible climate change/health assessment for this climate-sensitive region. Creating an integrated assessment model for decision support will enhance the likelihood that health agencies and other stakeholders will make use of the aggregate knowledge that will emerge from our highly quantitative analyses to better predict and subsequently reduce climate-related health risks.

Future Activities:

We will run the full time-series analysis of hospital admissions for the rest of the cities in Wisconsin. We will submit for publication a manuscript on the 30-year analysis for Lake Geneva, and we will complete analysis of the other inland lakes. We will also submit for publication the analysis of co-benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation in the upper Midwest region.


Journal Articles on this Report : 9 Displayed | Download in RIS Format

Other project views: All 29 publications 14 publications in selected types All 12 journal articles
Type Citation Project Document Sources
Journal Article Grabow ML, Spak SN, Holloway T, Stone B, Mednick AC, Patz JA. Air quality and exercise-related health benefits from reduced car travel in the Midwestern United States. Environmental Health Perspectives 2012;120(1):68-76. R832750 (2007)
R832750 (Final)
R831840 (Final)
  • Full-text from PubMed
  • Abstract from PubMed
  • Associated PubMed link
  • Full-text: EHP-Full Text PDF
  • Abstract: EHP-Abstract & Full Text HTML
  • Journal Article Holloway T, Spak SN, Barker D, Bretl M, Moberg C, Hayhoe K, Van Dorn J, Wuebbles D. Change in ozone air pollution over Chicago associated with global climate change. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres 2008;113(D22):D22306 (14 pp.). R832750 (2007)
    R831840 (Final)
  • Full-text: Wiley-Full Text PDF
    Exit
  • Abstract: Wiley-Abstract & Full Text HTML
    Exit
  • Journal Article Holman KD, Vavrus SJ. Understanding simulated extreme precipitation events in Madison, Wisconsin, and the role of moisture flux convergence during the late twentieth and twenty-first centuries. Journal of Hydrometeorology 2012;13(3):877-894. R832750 (2007)
    R832750 (Final)
  • Full-text: JHm-Full-text-HTML
    Exit
  • Abstract: JHm-Abstract
    Exit
  • Other: JHm-Full-text-PDF
    Exit
  • Journal Article Kucharik CJ, Serbin SP, Vavrus S, Hopkins EJ, Motew MM. Patterns of climate change across Wisconsin from 1950 to 2006. Physical Geography 2010;31(1):1-28. R832750 (2007)
    R832750 (Final)
  • Full-text: ResearchGate-Abstract & Full Text-PDF
    Exit
  • Abstract: Taylor & Francis-Abstract
    Exit
  • Journal Article Li B, Sain S, Mearns LO, Anderson HA, Kovats S, Ebi KL, Bekkedal MYV, Kanarek MS, Patz JA. The impact of extreme heat on morbidity in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Climatic Change 2012;110(3-4):959-976. R832750 (2007)
    R832750 (Final)
    R832752 (Final)
  • Full-text: SemanticScholar-Full Text PDF
    Exit
  • Abstract: Springer-Abstract
    Exit
  • Journal Article Patz JA, Vavrus SJ, Uejio CK, McLellan SL. Climate change and waterborne disease risk in the Great Lakes region of the U.S. American Journal of Preventative Medicine 2008;35(5):451-458. R832750 (2007)
  • Abstract from PubMed
  • Full-text: ScienceDirect-Full-text HTML
    Exit
  • Abstract: ScienceDirect-Abstract
    Exit
  • Other: ScienceDirect-Full-text PDF
    Exit
  • Journal Article Uejio CK, Peters TW, Patz JA. Inland lake indicator bacteria:long-term impervious surface and weather influences and a predictive Bayesian model. Lake and Reservoir Management 2012;28(3):232-244. R832750 (2007)
    R832750 (Final)
  • Full-text: L&RM-Full-text-HTML
    Exit
  • Abstract: L&RM-Abstract
    Exit
  • Other: L&RM-Full-text PDF
    Exit
  • Journal Article Vavrus S, Walsh JE, Chapman WL, Portis D. The behavior of extreme cold air outbreaks under greenhouse warming. International Journal of Climatology 2006;26(9):1133-1147. R832750 (2007)
  • Full-text: U of Wisconsin-Full Text PDF
    Exit
  • Abstract: InterScience Abstract
    Exit
  • Journal Article Vavrus S, Van Dorn J. Projected future temperature and precipitation extremes in Chicago. Journal of Great Lakes Research 2010;36(Suppl 2):22-32. R832750 (2007)
    R832750 (Final)
  • Full-text: ResearchGate-Abstract HTML & Full-text PDF
    Exit
  • Abstract: SienceDirect-Abstract
    Exit
  • Other: SienceDirect-Full Text PDF
    Exit
  • Supplemental Keywords:

    exposure, watershed, vulnerability, sensitive populations, children, elderly, risk assessment, decision making, cost-benefit, environmental chemistry, epidemiology, remote sensing, Great Lakes,, RFA, Health, Scientific Discipline, Air, Geographic Area, Midwest, Health Risk Assessment, climate change, Risk Assessments, Environmental Monitoring, Ecological Risk Assessment, air quality modeling, ecosystem models, climatic influence, climate related morbidity, emissions impact, modeling, climate models, demographics, human exposure, regional climate model, ambient air pollution, atmospheric models, Global Climate Change

    Progress and Final Reports:

    Original Abstract
  • 2006 Progress Report
  • Final Report