2006 Progress Report: Health Risks from Climate Variability and Change in the Upper Midwest: a Place-based Assessment of Climate-related Morbidity

EPA Grant Number: R832750
Title: Health Risks from Climate Variability and Change in the Upper Midwest: a Place-based Assessment of Climate-related Morbidity
Investigators: Patz, Jonathan , Chipman, Jonathan , Holloway, Tracey , Kanarek, Marty , Vavrus, Steve
Current Investigators: Patz, Jonathan , Anderson, Henry A. , Chipman, Jonathan , Hanrahan, Lawrence , Holloway, Tracey , Kanarek, Marty , Mearns, Linda , Tebaldi, Claudia , Vavrus, Steve , Wahba, Grace
Institution: University of Wisconsin Madison , National Center for Atmospheric Research , Wisconsin Department of Health and Family Services
EPA Project Officer: Chung, Serena
Project Period: February 1, 2006 through January 31, 2009
Project Period Covered by this Report: February 1, 2006 through January 31, 2007
Project Amount: $598,560
RFA: The Impact of Climate Change & Variability on Human Health (2005) RFA Text |  Recipients Lists
Research Category: Health , Climate Change , Global Climate Change , Health Effects


To evaluate the morbidity effects of current weather variability, we consider temperature and precipitation extremes. Based on our prior climate-health studies, we hypothesize that morbidity will parallel temperature mortality trends. To project the morbidity effects of future climate change, we will combine present-day risk factors with high resolution regional climate model (RCM) fields for the period 2040-2070. We will adjust for adaptation considering air conditioning projections and urban heat response planning.We hypothesize that the net effect of hot- and cold-related morbidity in Wisconsin and Chicago will depend on the duration and intensity of summertime stagnant air masses and wintertime arctic air surges, as well as precipitation extremes, air conditioning use and improved heat wave disaster planning. Expected intensification of the hydrologic cycle in combination with higher maximum summer temperatures could increase potential health risks from recreational waters. The regional conclusions from this study will inform the development of a Reduced-form Model for integrated decision support, facilitating a low-cost transfer of these analysis methods to other study regions and time periods.

Future Activities:

Begin collaboration with the WATER Institute at UW-Milwaukee on climate/water quality, and to possibly explore the relationship between heatwaves and neuro-invasion disease from West Nile Virus.

Journal Articles:

No journal articles submitted with this report: View all 29 publications for this project

Supplemental Keywords:

West Nile Virus,, RFA, Health, Scientific Discipline, Air, Geographic Area, Midwest, Health Risk Assessment, climate change, Risk Assessments, Environmental Monitoring, Ecological Risk Assessment, air quality modeling, ecosystem models, climatic influence, climate related morbidity, emissions impact, modeling, climate models, demographics, human exposure, regional climate model, ambient air pollution, atmospheric models, Global Climate Change

Progress and Final Reports:

Original Abstract
  • 2007 Progress Report
  • Final Report