2006 Progress Report: Estimation of the Risks to Human Health of PM and PM Components

EPA Grant Number: R832417C001
Subproject: this is subproject number 001 , established and managed by the Center Director under grant R832417
(EPA does not fund or establish subprojects; EPA awards and manages the overall grant for this center).

Center: Johns Hopkins Particulate Matter Research Center
Center Director: Samet, Jonathan M.
Title: Estimation of the Risks to Human Health of PM and PM Components
Investigators: Dominici, Francesca , Bell, Michelle L. , Peng, Roger D. , Samet, Jonathan M. , Zeger, Scott L.
Current Investigators: Peng, Roger D. , Bell, Michelle L. , Dominici, Francesca , Samet, Jonathan M.
Institution: The Johns Hopkins University , Yale University
EPA Project Officer: Chung, Serena
Project Period: October 1, 2005 through September 30, 2010
Project Period Covered by this Report: October 1, 2005 through September 30, 2006
RFA: Particulate Matter Research Centers (2004) RFA Text |  Recipients Lists
Research Category: Health Effects , Air

Objective:

In this project we will develop and apply statistical methods to national data sources to: 1) carry out multi-site time series studies for estimating short-term effects of PM and PM components on mortality and morbidity (Phase I); 2) carry out cohort-studies for estimating long-term effects of PM and PM components in susceptible populations (Phase II); and 3) assess coherence of evidence from bioassays and epidemiological studies on PM toxicity and susceptibility, and explore linkages of sources of harmful PM components to human health risks (Phase III).

By providing individual-level health data for the entire U.S. population of elderly, the National Medicare Cohort will allow us to take full advantage of all existing and future air quality databases on PM and its characteristics. This project will address the following objectives of the Center on a national scale: 1) mapping risks of PM and PM constituents to human health across the United States; 2) using the maps to identify a sampling frame of locations with contrasting higher and lower risks; and 3) carrying out more refined epidemiological studies to estimate further the risks of the more toxic particles to susceptible individuals.

Progress Summary:

The progress of Project 1, entitled “Estimation of the Risk to Human Health of PM and PM components,” is summarized below.

Phase I: Multi-Site Time Series Studies for Estimating Short-Term Effects of PM and PM Components on Mortality and Hospitalization

Progress toward Phase I includes:

  1. Updating Medicare billing claims, weather, and air pollution data sources to the year 2005.
  2. Characterizing spatial and temporal variability of PM2.5 and PM2.5 components across the United States. The manuscript entitled: Spatial and Temporal Variation in PM2.5 Chemical Composition in the United States for Health Effects Studies (2000-2005) led by Dr. Bell is close to submission.
  3. Applying statistical methods for multi-site time series studies for estimating short-term effects of PM2.5 on hospitalization from the National Medicare Cohort. The manuscript entitled Particles Air Pollution Fine Particulates Air Pollution and Hospital Admission for Cardiovascular and Respiratory Diseases, led by Dr. Dominici has been published in the Journal of the American Medical Association, March 8, 295:1127-1135.
  4. Developing statistical methods for multi-site time series studies to investigate whether short-term effects of PM10 (and PM2.5) on mortality are decreasing over time. The manuscript entitled An Update on the NMMAPS Associations Between Particulate Matter and Mortality (1987-2000): Toward a Methodology for Accountability, led by Dr. Dominici has been submitted to Epidemiology.
  5. Developing several methodologies for estimating short-term effects of PM2.5 chemical components.

Phase II: Cohort Studies Based on the National Medicare Cohort for Estimating Longer-Term Effects of PM and PM Composition in Susceptible Populations and for Cause-Specific Health Outcomes

Progress toward Phase II includes:

  1. Developing statistical methods for cohort studies for estimating whether long-term trends in PM2.5 levels are associated with long-term trends in mortality rates. The manuscript entitled: Trends in Particulate Matter and Mortality in 113 U.S. Counties, 2000-2002: Evidence on the Long Term Effects of Air Pollution, led by Dr. Janes has been submitted to Epidemiology.
  2. Carrying out cohort studies for estimating the long-term effects of PM2.5 on mortality, adjusted by spatial confounding. The manuscript entitled Mortality in the Medicare Population and Chronic Exposure to Fine Particulate Air Pollution led by Dr. Zeger is in the process of being submitted.
  3. Carrying out re-analyses of the American Cancer Society Study and of the Six Cities Harvard study by using the Medicare data. The manuscript entitled Re-analysis of the American Cancer Society Study by use of Medicare data (2000-2002) is in process of being submitted.

Future Activities:

Over the next six months, the first phase of analyses will be completed so that Project 2 can move forward with its sampling activities. In particular, maps of risks associated with PM will be developed for the United States and further overlaid with geographic variation in characteristics of PM2.5. We will then move forward with analyses directed at risks associated with PM2.5 components.


Journal Articles on this Report : 7 Displayed | Download in RIS Format

Other subproject views: All 41 publications 36 publications in selected types All 34 journal articles
Other center views: All 89 publications 66 publications in selected types All 64 journal articles
Type Citation Sub Project Document Sources
Journal Article Bell ML, Peng RD, Dominici F. The exposure-response curve for ozone and risk of mortality and the adequacy of current ozone regulations. Environmental Health Perspectives 2006;114(4):532-536. R832417 (Final)
R832417C001 (2006)
R832417C001 (2007)
R832417C001 (2009)
R832417C001 (Final)
R830548 (Final)
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  • Journal Article Bell ML, Dominici F, Ebisu K, Zeger SL, Samet JM. Spatial and temporal variation in PM2.5 chemical composition in the United States for health effects studies. Environmental Health Perspectives 2007;115(7):989-995. R832417 (Final)
    R832417C001 (2006)
    R832417C001 (2007)
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  • Journal Article Dominici F, Peng RD, Bell ML, Pham L, McDermott A, Zeger SL, Samet JM. Fine particulate air pollution and hospital admission for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. JAMA-Journal of the American Medical Association 2006;295(10):1127-1134. R832417 (Final)
    R832417C001 (2006)
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  • Journal Article Janes H, Dominici F, Zeger SL. Trends in air pollution and mortality: an approach to the assessment of unmeasured confounding. Epidemiology 2007;18(4):416-423. R832417 (Final)
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  • Journal Article Peng RD, Dominici F, Louis TA. Model choice in time series studies of air pollution and mortality. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A-Statistics in Society 2006;169(2):179-203. R832417 (Final)
    R832417C001 (2006)
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  • Journal Article Peng RD, Dominici F, Zeger SL. Reproducible epidemiological research. American Journal of Epidemiology 2006;163(9):783-789. R832417 (Final)
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  • Journal Article Symons JM, Wang L, Guallar E, Howell E, Dominici F, Schwab M, Ange BA, Samet J, Ondov J, Harrison D, Geyh A. A case-crossover study of fine particulate matter air pollution and onset of congestive heart failure symptom exacerbation leading to hospitalization. American Journal of Epidemiology 2006;164(5):421-433. R832417 (Final)
    R832417C001 (2006)
    R832417C001 (2007)
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  • Supplemental Keywords:

    time series, susceptible populations, risk estimates,, RFA, Health, Scientific Discipline, PHYSICAL ASPECTS, Air, particulate matter, Health Risk Assessment, Epidemiology, Risk Assessments, Physical Processes, atmospheric particulate matter, atmospheric particles, long term exposure, acute cardiovascular effects, airway disease, exposure, human exposure, ambient particle health effects, atmospheric aerosol particles, ultrafine particulate matter, aersol particles, cardiovascular disease

    Progress and Final Reports:

    Original Abstract
  • 2007 Progress Report
  • 2008 Progress Report
  • 2009 Progress Report
  • Final Report

  • Main Center Abstract and Reports:

    R832417    Johns Hopkins Particulate Matter Research Center

    Subprojects under this Center: (EPA does not fund or establish subprojects; EPA awards and manages the overall grant for this center).
    R832417C001 Estimation of the Risks to Human Health of PM and PM Components
    R832417C002 PM Characterization and Exposure Assessment (Project 2)
    R832417C003 Biological Assessment of the Toxicity of PM and PM Components