2005 Progress Report: Bayesian Methods for Characterizing Complex Multivariate Exposures

EPA Grant Number: R831843
Title: Bayesian Methods for Characterizing Complex Multivariate Exposures
Investigators: Herring, Amy H. , Savitz, David A.
Institution: University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
EPA Project Officer: Hahn, Intaek
Project Period: November 1, 2004 through October 31, 2007
Project Period Covered by this Report: November 1, 2004 through October 31, 2005
Project Amount: $389,248
RFA: Environmental Statistics Research: Novel Analyses of Human Exposure Related Data (2004) RFA Text |  Recipients Lists
Research Category: Environmental Statistics , Health , Health Effects

Objective:

The objectives of this research project are to: (1) develop useful methods for summarizing complex exposures and for examining the relationship between the exposures and health outcomes; (2) account properly for resultant uncertainty in the exposure assessment; and (3) use the models for estimation, prediction, and other inferences about the effects of multichemical, multipathway exposures.

Progress Summary:

We have made substantial progress toward our goal of developing statistical methods for assessing the relationship between complex multivariate exposures and health outcomes of interest. During Year 1 of the project, we have concentrated on exploring different methods of shrinkage for the purpose of borrowing information across similar exposure times and disinfection byproducts (DBPs), using the point mass mixture priors discussed in the proposal. At this time, we have submitted one manuscript for publication. We use Dirichlet process priors, incorporating a point mass mixture in the base measure, as an approach for adaptive shrinkage. In addition, two manuscripts are in preparation and will be submitted this winter. The first manuscript compares the proposed shrinkage method with popular shrinkage methods (including semi-Bayes and parametric Bayes) currently being used, with simulation results indicating the superior performance of our proposed method in a variety of settings. Another manuscript applies these methods in a basic model using the water exposure data, assessing the association between each component DBP and spontaneous abortion while simultaneously adjusting for the other DBPs, which share high correlation with each other.

Future Activities:

For the next reporting period, we will extend the methods developed to the complex data structure present in Right from the Start. We will continue model building and assessment with respect to assessing the sensitivity of results to the particular uptakes factors used, and we will determine whether certain periods of gestation are more sensitive to DBP effects than others. Using the methods developed during the first year of the grant, we will use shrinkage to handle the high-dimensionality of the exposure and large number of predictor variables. We plan to present preliminary results based on this work at the ENAR Meeting in Tampa, Florida in March.


Journal Articles on this Report : 12 Displayed | Download in RIS Format

Other project views: All 15 publications 12 publications in selected types All 12 journal articles
Type Citation Project Document Sources
Journal Article Carmichael SL, Herring AH, Sj√∑din A, Jones R, Needham L, Ma C, Ding K, Shaw GM. Hypospadias and halogenated organic pollutant levels in maternal mid-pregnancy serum samples. Chemosphere 2010;80(6):641-646. R831843 (2005)
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  • Journal Article Dunson DB, Herring AH, Engel SM. Bayesian selection and clustering of polymorphisms in functionally related genes. Journal of the American Statistical Association 2008;103(482):534-546. R831843 (2005)
    R831711 (2007)
    R831711 (Final)
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  • Journal Article Herring AH. Nonparametric Bayes Shrinkage for Assessing Exposures to Mixtures Subject to Limits of Detection. Epidemiology 2010;21(4):S71-S76. R831843 (2005)
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  • Journal Article Hoffman CS, Mendola P, Savitz DA, Herring AH, Loomis D, Hartmann KE, Singer PC, Weinberg HS, Olshan AF. Drinking Water Disinfection By-Product Exposure and Duration of Gestation. Epidemiology 2008;19(5):738-746. R831843 (2005)
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  • Journal Article Hoffman CS, Mendola P, Savitz DA, Herring AH, Loomis D, Hartmann KE, Singer PC, Weinberg HS, Olshan AF. Drinking Water Disinfection By-Product Exposure and Fetal Growth. Epidemiology 2008;19(5):729-737. R831843 (2005)
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  • Journal Article Horton BJ, Luben TJ, Herring AH, Savitz DA, Singer PC, Weinberg HS, Hartmann KE. The Effect of Water Disinfection By-products on Pregnancy Outcomes in Two Southeastern US Communities. Journal of Occupational and Environmental Medicine 2011;53(10):1172-1178. R831843 (2005)
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  • Journal Article MacLehose RF, Dunson DB, Herring AH, Hoppin JA. Bayesian Methods for Highly Correlated Exposure Data. Epidemiology 2007;18(2):199-207. R831843 (2005)
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  • Journal Article MacLehose RF, Savitz DA, Herring AH, Hartmann KE, Singer PC, Weinberg HS. Drinking Water Disinfection By-Products and Time to Pregnancy. Epidemiology 2008;19(3):451-458. R831843 (2005)
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  • Journal Article Saville BR, Herring AH. Testing random effects in the linear mixed model using approximate Bayes factors. Biometrics 2009;65(2):369-376. R831843 (2005)
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  • Journal Article Saville BR, Herring AH, Koch GG. A robust method for comparing two treatments in a confirmatory clinical trial via multivariate time-to-event methods that jointly incorporate information from longitudinal and time-to-event data. Statistics in Medicine 2010;29(1):75-85. R831843 (2005)
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  • Journal Article Slaughter JC, Herring AH, Hartmann KE. Bayesian modeling of embryonic growth using latent variables. Biostatistics 2008;9(2):373-389. R831843 (2005)
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  • Journal Article Wright JM, Hoffman CS, Savitz DA. The relationship between water intake and foetal growth and preterm delivery in a prospective cohort study. BMC Pregnancy and Childbirth 2010;10(1):1-8. R831843 (2005)
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  • Supplemental Keywords:

    Bayesian methods, chlorination, disinfection byproducts, drinking water, pregnancy outcome, spontaneous abortion, water quality,, RFA, Economic, Social, & Behavioral Science Research Program, Health, Scientific Discipline, INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION, ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT, Water, POLLUTANTS/TOXICS, Environmental Chemistry, Health Risk Assessment, Risk Assessments, Biochemistry, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Statistics, Water Pollutants, Drinking Water, Risk Assessment, disinfection byproducts, pollutant mixtures, health risk analysis, co-pollutant effects, exposure and effects, disinfection byproducts (DPBs), Bayesian method, other - risk assessment, complex chemical mixtures, multivariate exposure assessment, air pollution, chemical mixtures, drinking water supplies, human exposure, water quality, Bayesian statistical theory, multi chemical exposure, exposure assessment, human health risk, cumulative effects

    Relevant Websites:

    http://www2.sph.unc.edu/profiles/?fuseaction=profile_detail&subject=bios&profile_id=1388&class=FACULTY,STAFF&dropnull=1 Exit

    Progress and Final Reports:

    Original Abstract
  • 2006
  • Final