2007 Progress Report: Regional Development, Population Trend, and Technology Change Impacts on Future Air Pollution Emissions in the San Joaquin ValleyEPA Grant Number: R831842
Title: Regional Development, Population Trend, and Technology Change Impacts on Future Air Pollution Emissions in the San Joaquin Valley
Investigators: Kleeman, Michael J. , Handy, Susan , Lund, Jay , Niemeier, Deb , Sullivan, Dana Coe
Current Investigators: Kleeman, Michael J. , Handy, Susan , Lund, Jay , Niemeier, Deb
Institution: University of California - Davis , Sonoma Technology, Inc.
Current Institution: University of California - Davis
EPA Project Officer: Chung, Serena
Project Period: October 1, 2004 through September 30, 2007 (Extended to September 30, 2010)
Project Period Covered by this Report: October 1, 2006 through September 30, 2007
Project Amount: $680,000
RFA: Regional Development, Population Trend, and Technology Change Impacts on Future Air Pollution Emissions (2004) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Global Climate Change , Climate Change , Air
The objective of this project is to combine innovative land use forecasting models, water constraint models, travel demand models, emissions models, and a source-oriented air quality model into a modeling system with feedback loops to predict future emissions and associated air quality impacts. The modeling system will be used to assess the sensitivity of emissions inventories to future policy scenarios in the areas of land use policies, transportation investments, technological innovations, air quality regulations, and agricultural practices in the San Joaquin Valley (SJV) in the year 2030. The results of this research will improve our understanding of the long term air quality impacts of both incremental and radical changes in land use and infrastructure policies.
During the first year of the project four future policy scenarios were developed for the SJV in the year 2030. These policy scenario’s were constructed in consultation with experts from public agencies and private industry. Two scenarios bound extreme cases ranging from no policy controls on regional development to strict land use policy controls. The remaining two scenarios focus on interim policies that are likely to be implemented.
During the second year of the project the basecase “as-planned” emissions scenario for the San Joaquin Valley was translated into an emissions inventory for point, area, and mobile sources. The results suggest that wood smoke emissions were suppressed during the winter in the SJV due to the application of no-burn rules but increased population “sprawl” outside the current urban regions increased regional wood smoke emissions. Preliminary air quality modeling was performed to asses how air quality would change in response to these future emissions during winter conditions. As expected, primary wood smoke PM concentrations decreased in urban areas and increased in the surrounding outlying areas.
During the third year of the project all of the four future policy scenarios were translated into emissions inventories for point, area, and mobile sources. Sources without a pre-existing VOC/PM profile assignment were identified and an appropriate source profile assignment was made. Several rounds of air quality modeling were performed with profiles at various stages of development. All of the future emissions scenarios resulted in PM2.5 concentrations exceeding 35 μg m-3 under the meteorological conditions experienced in California in December 2000. Scenarios encouraging dense urban areas result in higher concentrations of all combustion source emissions (wood smoke, diesel exhaust, gasoline exhaust) in urban areas, while scenarios allowing more sprawl result in lower concentrations across a larger geographical region.
Air quality models will be used to fully evaluate the effect of regional policy decisions on air quality in the SJV.