2007 Progress Report: Air Quality, Emissions, Growth, and Change: A Method to Prescribe a Desirable Future

EPA Grant Number: R831838
Title: Air Quality, Emissions, Growth, and Change: A Method to Prescribe a Desirable Future
Investigators: Chang, Michael E. , Akhtar, Farhan , Carpenter, Ann , Chapman, James , Chirico, Jennifer M , Noonan, Douglas , Russell, Armistead G.
Institution: Georgia Institute of Technology , Lawrence Frank and Company, Inc.
EPA Project Officer: Chung, Serena
Project Period: December 1, 2004 through November 30, 2007 (Extended to November 30, 2009)
Project Period Covered by this Report: December 1, 2006 through November 30, 2007
Project Amount: $649,999
RFA: Regional Development, Population Trend, and Technology Change Impacts on Future Air Pollution Emissions (2004) RFA Text |  Recipients Lists
Research Category: Global Climate Change , Climate Change , Air

Objective:

At the scale of 50 years, we postulate that emissions and the activities, processes, and infrastructure associated with them, are pliant – that is, they are adaptable. Rather than trying to predict how emissions will change in the future and what impact they will have on future air quality (and hoping that the impact is beneficial), we propose a method in which we define a desirable air quality state and then derive the emissions and activity profiles required to achieve it. Our objectives then are threefold: 1) to develop and apply at the regional community scale a reasonable method for defining one or more desirable future air quality states; 2) to develop and demonstrate an “inverse” approach that utilizes the future desired air quality to derive the emissions, activities, processes, and infrastructure that are needed to achieve the desired future; and 3) to identify the types and amounts of land use modifications, technology advancements, and other changes that will be required to transform or morph the present emissions scenario into the future desired emissions scenario.

Progress Summary:

During this third project year, refinements were added to the economic based approach for defining the desirable future air quality state enabling more variations on the original objective. While it is maintained that none of these proposed future air quality states are necessarily representative of the actual future population’s desire, collectively they may suggest a bounded range of consensus. As these scenarios are propagated through the inverse model to derive the necessary emissions profiles, they will provide us some indication of the sensitivity of the approach to the input future state. Ensuring that the inverse model itself was correctly functioning and that it was developed and deployed in such a way so as to be sufficiently flexible for exploring a range of different air quality objectives was the primary focus of the project team over the last year. Major development and evaluation is now complete. A set of future air quality scenarios have been identified for production runs which will kick off the third and final phase of the project. In preparation for the final phase of the project, we conducted analyses that compared urban form metrics to emissions at the highest resolution available in the air quality model. This sets the stage for being able to connect future model derived emissions with real, tangible land use and transportation characteristics. Results and derivative works from Phases I and II were presented at numerous conferences and symposia, and especially directed towards stakeholders in Georgia.

Future Activities:

With the major development work of Phases I and II now complete, the final project year will be dedicated to completing the third objective in which emissions are related to specific types of neighborhoods and communities, and the amenities and characteristics inherent to them that fit within the constraints of those emissions. As noted in this report, the chief challenge at this point is finding common ground between the emissions estimated by the inverse air quality modeling and the SMARTRAQ database. Once this link is established, it is relatively straight forward to identify the physical characteristics that must be present in order that the desired air quality is realized. Further, with that final link established, we can move into a “production” mode and contemplate outcomes based on the several different future air quality scenarios described in this report. Finally, we will continue the process of communicating results and methods to others in the community.


Journal Articles on this Report : 4 Displayed | Download in RIS Format

Other project views: All 15 publications 4 publications in selected types All 4 journal articles
Type Citation Project Document Sources
Journal Article Liao K-J, Tagaris E, Manomaiphiboon K, Wang C, Woo J-H, Amar P, He S, Russell AG. Quantification of the impact of climate uncertainty on regional air quality. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 2009;9(3):865-878. R831838 (2007)
R830960 (Final)
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  • Journal Article Tagaris E, Liao K-J, Manomaiphiboon K, He S, Woo J-H, Amar P, Russell AG. The role of climate and emission changes in future air quality over southern Canada and northern Mexico. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 2008;8(14):3973-3983. R831838 (2007)
    R830960 (Final)
    R831076 (Final)
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  • Journal Article Tagaris E, Liao K-J, DeLucia AJ, Deck L, Amar P, Russell AG. Potential impact of climate change on air pollution-related human health effects. Environmental Science & Technology 2009;43(13):4979-4988. R831838 (2007)
    R830960 (Final)
    R831076 (Final)
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  • Journal Article Tagaris E, Liao K-J, DeLucia AJ, Deck L, Amar P, Russell AG. Sensitivity of air pollution-induced premature mortality to precursor emissions under the influence of climate change. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 2010;7(5):2222-2237. R831838 (2007)
    R830960 (Final)
    R831076 (Final)
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  • Supplemental Keywords:

    ambient air, troposphere, mobile sources, environmentally conscious design, public policy, non-market valuation, inverse methods, EPA Region IV, Atlanta, Georgia,, RFA, Health, Scientific Discipline, PHYSICAL ASPECTS, Air, Ecosystem Protection/Environmental Exposure & Risk, RESEARCH, Health Risk Assessment, climate change, Air Pollution Effects, Risk Assessments, Monitoring/Modeling, Monitoring, Environmental Monitoring, Physical Processes, Atmospheric Sciences, Ecological Risk Assessment, Atmosphere, ecosystem models, integrated assessments, particulate matter, air quality modeling, atmospheric measurements, model-based analysis, remote sensing, motor vehicle emissions, fine particles, automobile exhaust, exposure, global change, model assisted estimation, air pollution, green house gas concentrations, air quality model, modeling, human exposure, climate models, environmental stressors, human activity, landscape characterization, air quality assessments, airborne urban contaminants, human health risk, land use, air quality, ambient air pollution, public health effects, ozone concentrations, transportation, atmospheric chemistry

    Progress and Final Reports:

    Original Abstract
  • 2005 Progress Report
  • 2006 Progress Report
  • 2008
  • Final