A Long Term Integrated Framework Linking Urban Development, Demographic Trends and Technology Changes to Stationary and Mobile Source EmissionsEPA Grant Number: R831841
Title: A Long Term Integrated Framework Linking Urban Development, Demographic Trends and Technology Changes to Stationary and Mobile Source Emissions
Investigators: Anas, Alex , Hewings, Geoffrey
Institution: The State University of New York at Buffalo , University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
EPA Project Officer: Chung, Serena
Project Period: November 1, 2004 through October 31, 2007 (Extended to October 31, 2010)
Project Amount: $675,000
RFA: Regional Development, Population Trend, and Technology Change Impacts on Future Air Pollution Emissions (2004) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Global Climate Change , Climate Change , Air
We seek a tool capable of producing long-term (25-50 year) projections of stationary- and mobile-source emissions in a metropolitan area. While emission models are required for SIP budgets, they are at best accurate for short horizons, taking as given local projections of economic activity and population change. Instead of simply extrapolating these local trends, we seek to explain them, by modeling the fundamental behavioral relationships among individuals and firms and by linking these underlying economic relationships to secular national and international trends in population, economic development and technological changes. Among the specific demographic trends to be examined are the graying of the population, reductions in household size and international immigration. We will also examine the possibility of the continued deindustrialization of U.S. manufacturing and its impact on a metropolitan area with considerable manufacturing (the Chicago MSA). We will consider new technologies likely to impact emissions, such as electric vehicles and hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles, as well as electricity produced by biomass and windmill generators.
The proposed modeling framework is a dynamic computable general equilibrium model (DCGEM) for a metropolitan area based on principles of economic behavior and that can be calibrated well from existing data. The submodels are: 1) the Regional Economy and Land Use (RELU) model that treats the location, production and transportation decisions of both businesses and consumers and the land development decisions of developers under a variety of government taxes and subsidies; 2) EMME/2, a model of congested travel conditions on highway and transit networks; 3) Haiku: a model of the electricity sector; and 4) models of emissions from mobile and stationary sources including those from production outside the electricity sector. We will interface these models to establish feedbacks among them so that they consistently simulate the workings of the Chicago regional economy.
The research will provide a tool that is portable from one metropolitan area to another. It will help identify the policies or trends that are the most effective in reducing emissions, and specify how quickly and at what cost. It will determine whether the benefits of two policies or planning actions are sub-additive or super-additive. Hence, it could help direct future research and help identify future policy initiatives that are economically and politically feasible. Application of the model to other regions in the future would increase understanding of whether the policy actions should vary among metropolitan regions.