2003 Progress Report: Modeling and Integration

EPA Grant Number: R829458C009
Subproject: this is subproject number 009 , established and managed by the Center Director under grant R829458
(EPA does not fund or establish subprojects; EPA awards and manages the overall grant for this center).

Center: EAGLES - Consortium for Estuarine Ecoindicator Research for the Gulf of Mexico
Center Director: Brouwer, Marius
Title: Modeling and Integration
Current Investigators: Rose, Kenneth A.
Current Institution: Louisiana State University - Baton Rouge , University of Southern Mississippi
EPA Project Officer: Hiscock, Michael
Project Period: December 1, 2001 through November 30, 2005 (Extended to May 20, 2007)
Project Period Covered by this Report: December 1, 2002 through November 30, 2003
RFA: Environmental Indicators in the Estuarine Environment Research Program (2000) RFA Text |  Recipients Lists
Research Category: Ecological Indicators/Assessment/Restoration , Water , Ecosystems


The three objectives of the modeling effort are to:

1. Refine and test predictive models for scaling individual-level effects (croaker and sheepshead minnow) to the population level. This objective is under the program component entitled "Reproductive Function in Estuarine Fishes."

2. Use reproductive and dissolved oxygen (DO) stress indicator data for population modeling of grass shrimp. This objective is under the program component entitled "Molecular Indicators of Dissolved Oxygen Stress in Crustaceans."

3. Integration of results among the components of the CEER-GOM program. This objective is part of the effort for more programwide integration.

The progress of the Louisiana State University (LSU) modeling group for Year 2 of the CEER-GOM program is summarized below, organized by model and linked to the objectives.

Progress Summary:

The modeling and integration being performed by Kenneth Rose, Cheryl Murphy, and Shaye Sable at LSU (the LSU modeling group) did not receive funds for Year 1 of the CEER-GOM program. Although this annual report covers the progress of the second year of the CEER-GOM program, the progress below is for the first year of the funded modeling effort.

The effort of the modeling group at LSU has gradually expanded during Year 2 of the CEER-GOM project. This expansion included the development of additional models and a larger role in the integration of results over the entire program. Additional funds were provided to the LSU group to support these additional efforts. These expansions were done in response to the comments of the Science Advisory Board (SAB).

Physiological Model

We are developing a physiological model of an individual female croaker-like fish that simulates the reproductive process of vitellogenesis. The model begins with pulse of gonadotropin and ends just before the onset of final oocyte maturation. Laboratory data, including experiments from CCER-GOM efforts, are used to configure the model, estimate model parameters, and test model predictions. Three types of endocrine disruptors have been simulated that differed in their mechanisms of action: cadmium, polychlorinated biphenyls, and low dissolved oxygen (DO). The model will be used to aid in our understanding and interpretation of biomarkers measured on fish-caught fish. The physiological model relates to Objective 1.

Croaker Population Model

We made progress in configuring a series of linked models that scale laboratory-measured indicators to population responses. The series consists of three models: (1) statistical; (2) individual-based larval cohort; and (3) stage-based matrix projection population dynamics. The statistical model relates laboratory-measured bioindicators of behavioral responses of larvae to stress to predator avoidance. The individual-based larval cohort model takes the output of the statistical model (predator avoidance) and measured swimming speeds and predicts how larval stage growth and mortality would be affected. The output of the larval cohort model then is used to change the appropriate elements of the matrix model, and the matrix model simulates the consequences to the population over 100 years. Additional refinement and tailoring of the models is ongoing in preparation for their application to hypoxia effects on croaker in the Gulf of Mexico. The linked models relate to Objective 1.

Fish Community Model

We initiated the development of an individual-based fish community model of Gulf of Mexico marsh ecosystem. The model simulates resident fish species (bay anchovy, Fundulus, Sheepshead minnow, and silversides), blue crab, and grass shrimp predatory and competitive interactions on a fine-scale grid of habitat cells. The model will be used to predict the community responses to various scenarios of low DO conditions superimposed on different arrangements of vegetated and open water cells. The issue of how hypoxia interacts with habitat is important for understanding the population- and community-level effects of low DO. The community model was initiated to address Objective 1 (population responses of sheepshead minnow), Objective 2 (population responses of grass shrimp), and Objective 3 (programwide integration). The community modeling effort is a partial response to the first year review by the SAB that called for more involvement of modeling across components and the development of models to aid in programwide integration.

Analysis of Coordinated Sampling of Pensacola Bay

During Year 2 of the project, Pensacola Bay was sampled by CEER-GOM program components in a highly coordinated design. Near the end of Year 2, the LSU modeling group agreed to get more involved in the analysis of the anticipated data as part of programwide integration. A workshop for data analysis and integration is planned during Year 3 of the project. Statistical and graphical methods will be applied to the data collected by the various components to demonstrate integrated analysis methods and hopefully to identify spatial and temporal patterns across indicators. The analysis of the monitoring data is a joint effort of Kenneth Rose and Peter Noble of the Data Management and Analysis component, with close cooperation of all investigators of the other components.

Future Activities:

Additional refinement and tailoring of the croaker population models are ongoing in preparation for their application to hypoxia effects on croaker in the Gulf of Mexico. Continued development of the physiological model will include simulation of the effects of hypoxia and incorporation of environmental stochasticity and physiological parameter uncertainty using Monte Carlo techniques. In addition, a workshop for data analysis and integration is planned during Year 3 of the project.

Journal Articles on this Report : 4 Displayed | Download in RIS Format

Other subproject views: All 23 publications 6 publications in selected types All 6 journal articles
Other center views: All 171 publications 54 publications in selected types All 48 journal articles
Type Citation Sub Project Document Sources
Journal Article Breitburg DL, Adamack A, Rose KA, Kolesar SE, Decker MB, Purcell JE, Keister JE, Cowan JH. The pattern and influence of low dissolved oxygen in the Patuxent River, a seasonally hypoxic estuary. Estuaries 2003;26(2A):280-297. R829458C009 (2003)
not available
Journal Article Murphy CA, Rose KA, Thomas P. Modeling vitellogenesis in female fish exposed to environmental stressors: predicting the effects of endocrine disturbance due to exposure to a PCB mixture and cadmium. Reproductive Toxicology 2005;19(3):395-409. R829458C005 (2003)
R829458C009 (2003)
not available
Journal Article Rose KA, Murphy CA, Diamond SL, Fuiman LA, Thomas P. Using nested models and laboratory data for predicting population effects of contaminants on fish: a step towards a bottom-up approach for establishing causality in field studies. Human and Ecological Risk Assessment 2003;9(1):231-257. R829458C009 (2003)
not available
Journal Article Rose KA. Lack of relationship between simulated fish population responses and their life history traits: inadequate models, incorrect analysis, or site-specific factors?. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 2005;62(4):886-902 R829458C009 (2003)
R829458C009 (2004)
not available

Supplemental Keywords:

population, community, ecosystem, watersheds, estuary, estuaries, Gulf of Mexico, nutrients, hypoxia, innovative technology, biomarkers, water quality, remote sensing, geographic information system, GIS, integrated assessment, risk assessment, fisheries, conservation, restoration, monitoring/modeling, Apalachicola Bay, Consortium for Estuarine Ecoindicator Research for the Gulf of Mexico, CEER-GOM, Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program, Galveston Bay, Mobile Bay, benthic indicators, ecoindicator, ecological exposure, ecosystem monitoring, environmental indicators, environmental stress, estuarine ecoindicator, estuarine integrity., RFA, Scientific Discipline, Air, Geographic Area, Water, ECOSYSTEMS, Ecosystem Protection/Environmental Exposure & Risk, estuarine research, Ecology, Aquatic Ecosystems & Estuarine Research, Ecosystem/Assessment/Indicators, Ecosystem Protection, climate change, Air Pollution Effects, Aquatic Ecosystem, Ecological Effects - Environmental Exposure & Risk, Aquatic Ecosystems, Environmental Monitoring, Ecological Monitoring, Atmosphere, Gulf of Mexico, Ecological Indicators, monitoring, remote sensing, ecoindicator, ecological exposure, estuaries, estuarine integrity, Mobile Bay, dissolved oxygen status, Galveston Bay, Apalachicola Bay, estuarine ecoindicator, environmental indicators, environmental stress, GIS, restoration, water quality, estuarine waters, Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program

Progress and Final Reports:

Original Abstract
  • 2002
  • 2004 Progress Report
  • 2005 Progress Report
  • 2006
  • Final

  • Main Center Abstract and Reports:

    R829458    EAGLES - Consortium for Estuarine Ecoindicator Research for the Gulf of Mexico

    Subprojects under this Center: (EPA does not fund or establish subprojects; EPA awards and manages the overall grant for this center).
    R829458C001 Remote Sensing of Water Quality
    R829458C002 Microbial Biofilms as Indicators of Estuarine Ecosystem Condition
    R829458C003 Individual Level Indicators: Molecular Indicators of Dissolved Oxygen Stress in Crustaceans
    R829458C004 Data Management and Analysis
    R829458C005 Individual Level Indicators: Reproductive Function in Estuarine Fishes
    R829458C006 Collaborative Efforts Between CEER-GOM and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)-Gulf Ecology Division (GED)
    R829458C007 GIS and Terrestrial Remote Sensing
    R829458C008 Macrobenthic Process Indicators of Estuarine Condition for the Northern Gulf of Mexico
    R829458C009 Modeling and Integration