Modeling Alternative Vehicle Technology Potential for Climate Change and Air Pollution MitigationEPA Grant Number: U916234
Title: Modeling Alternative Vehicle Technology Potential for Climate Change and Air Pollution Mitigation
Investigators: Chen, Belinda S.
Institution: University of California - Davis
EPA Project Officer: Carleton, James N
Project Period: January 1, 2003 through January 1, 2006
Project Amount: $93,646
RFA: STAR Graduate Fellowships (2003) Recipients Lists
Research Category: Academic Fellowships , Economics and Decision Sciences , Fellowship - Economics
As environmental degradation becomes a more pressing global concern, changes in the transportation system, especially the light-duty vehicle sector, will become necessary. Advanced vehicle technologies have the potential to reduce the environmental impacts from transportation without significantly disrupting current travel behavior or consumer choice. The objective of this research project is to analyze the potential of advanced vehicles to mitigate these effects, given economic and technical constraints.
Currently, I am working to analyze the economic impacts of possible regulatory policies to regulate greenhouse gas emissions from motor vehicles in California. I will use a comprehensive database spanning back to 1975, to determine how changes in emissions, fuel economy, and crash safety regulations have affected vehicle attributes. For example, how quickly has a new technology penetrated the market, and how much does vehicle price initially change before the technology becomes mature? In the future, I also will use a consumer-choice forecast to investigate the impacts of new technologies on vehicle purchase behavior. Based on the resultant penetration curves and fleet turnover rates, I will model the subsequent change in air pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions.