2006 Progress Report: Development and Evaluation of a Methodology for Determining Air Pollution Emissions Relative to Geophysical and Societal Change

EPA Grant Number: R831449
Title: Development and Evaluation of a Methodology for Determining Air Pollution Emissions Relative to Geophysical and Societal Change
Investigators: Williams, Allen , Bye, Beth , Donaghy, Kieran P. , Ha, Soo Jung , Hewings, Geoffrey , Lee, Dong-Jun , Lufin Varas, Marcelo Leonardo , Pallathucheril, Varkki , Tao, Zhining , Wuebbles, Donald J.
Current Investigators: Williams, Allen , Bye, Beth , Donaghy, Kieran P. , Ha, Soo Jung , Hewings, Geoffrey , Pallathucheril, Varkki , Tao, Zhining , Wuebbles, Donald J.
Institution: University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
EPA Project Officer: Chung, Serena
Project Period: February 1, 2004 through January 31, 2007 (Extended to July 31, 2007)
Project Period Covered by this Report: February 1, 2006 through January 31, 2007
Project Amount: $749,999
RFA: Consequences of Global Change for Air Quality: Spatial Patterns in Air Pollution Emissions (2003) RFA Text |  Recipients Lists
Research Category: Air Quality and Air Toxics , Global Climate Change , Climate Change , Air


The primary objective is to develop an Emissions Inventory Modeling System (EIMS) that uses a regional econometric input-output model and emissions development tools to formulate future emissions inventories for different social and climate change scenarios in the format consistent with the National Emissions Inventory (NEI). We take into account changes in population, economy, policy and regulations, technology, transportation, energy usage, landscape and land-use, and vegetation and land cover in development of a future emissions inventory. Our approach for anthropogenic emissions is to formulate the emission projections for a given scenario into source classification code (SCC)-based growth factors that can be used to project forward the NEI. Biogenic emissions are projected with a terrestrial land-use model in consideration of different climate change scenarios. Finally a Decision Support System (DSS) is developed that allows users to obtain background information, explore data, and analyze and evaluate alternative scenarios through a graphic user interface available in a public web domain. The development and application of the EIMS will make a major contribution to a key goal of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Global Change Research Program to quantify the emissions associated with, and resulting effects of, regional and global changes in air quality.

Progress Summary:

  • We re-specified the discrete-time Chicago Regional Econometric Input-Output Model (REIM) into a continuous time model and successfully developed various emissions scenarios for that region.
  • We developed an alternative method to project future emission intensity (EMI) that links EMI to sectoral economic outputs. The new approach is an addition to the one we developed last year and will enhance our capability to create a wider range of emissions scenarios.
  • We are close to completing development of the continuous time Midwest REIM. The respective EMI of each pollutant for each economic sector in each individual state is estimated and applied in the preliminary effort to develop future emissions inventory for the Midwest United States.
  • We finished the land-cover simulation using the Argo-Issue-Based Information System (IBIS) model under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1Fi emissions scenario for 2050. The climate projections are based on a state-of-the-art regional climate model developed and operated in the Illinois State Water Survey (ISWS).
  • We developed the prototype of the Web-based DSS.

Future Activities:

  • Complete development of the continuous time Midwest REIM and develop a different economic outlook to support emissions projections.
  • Refine and complete the new approach of estimating future EMI and apply, in combination with the ones formulated last year, to develop various future emissions scenarios.
  • Complete the procedure that generates an NEI-like future emissions inventory so that it can be directly input to Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE) model, an emissions processing model.
  • Complete the development of DSS and have Version 1 available to EPA and other interested groups.
  • Complete the final project report.
  • Publish the results in peer-reviewed journals.

Journal Articles on this Report : 2 Displayed | Download in RIS Format

Other project views: All 7 publications 3 publications in selected types All 3 journal articles
Type Citation Project Document Sources
Journal Article Tao Z, Williams A, Huang H-C, Caughey M, Liang X-Z. Sensitivity of U.S. surface ozone to future emissions and climate changes. Geophysical Research Letters 2007;34(8):L08811 (5 pp.). R831449 (2006)
R831449 (Final)
R830963 (2006)
R830963 (Final)
  • Full-text: AGU-Full Text HTML
  • Other: AGU-Full Text PDF
  • Journal Article Tao Z, Williams A, Donaghy K, Hewings G. A socio-economic method for estimating future air pollutant emissions—Chicago case study. Atmospheric Environment 2007;41(26):5398-5409. R831449 (2006)
    R831449 (Final)
  • Full-text: Science Direct Full Text
  • Abstract: Science Direct Abstract
  • Other: Science Direct PDF
  • Supplemental Keywords:

    global change, climate change, emission, emission intensity, stationary sources, mobile sources, biogenic sources, land-use change, energy usage, population, vehicle mileage traveled, technological change, policy and regulation, continuous-time model, regional econometric input-output model, regional climate model, air quality model, decision support system,, RFA, Scientific Discipline, Air, Ecosystem Protection/Environmental Exposure & Risk, climate change, Air Pollution Effects, Monitoring/Modeling, Environmental Monitoring, Ecological Risk Assessment, Atmospheric Sciences, anthropogenic stress, atmospheric dispersion models, environmental measurement, meteorology, Emissions Inventory Modeling System, climatic influence, emissions monitoring, future projections, global change, economic models, emissions inventory, climate models, greenhouse gases, societal changes, environmental stress, regional emissions model, ecological models, climate model, greenhouse gas, atmospheric models, land use, Global Climate Change, atmospheric chemistry, air quality, ambient air pollution

    Progress and Final Reports:

    Original Abstract
  • 2004 Progress Report
  • 2005 Progress Report
  • Final Report