2005 Progress Report: Development and Evaluation of a Methodology for Determining Air Pollution Emissions Relative to Geophysical and Societal ChangeEPA Grant Number: R831449
Title: Development and Evaluation of a Methodology for Determining Air Pollution Emissions Relative to Geophysical and Societal Change
Investigators: Williams, Allen , Donaghy, Kieran P. , Hewings, Geoffrey , Wuebbles, Donald J.
Current Investigators: Williams, Allen , Bye, Beth , Donaghy, Kieran P. , Ha, Soo Jung , Hewings, Geoffrey , Pallathucheril, Varkki , Tao, Zhining , Wuebbles, Donald J.
Institution: University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
EPA Project Officer: Chung, Serena
Project Period: February 1, 2004 through January 31, 2007 (Extended to July 31, 2007)
Project Period Covered by this Report: February 1, 2005 through January 31, 2006
Project Amount: $749,999
RFA: Consequences of Global Change for Air Quality: Spatial Patterns in Air Pollution Emissions (2003) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Air Quality and Air Toxics , Global Climate Change , Climate Change , Air
The overall objective of this research project is to develop an Emissions Inventory Modeling System (EIMS) that uses econometric models and emissions development tools to formulate future emissions inventories for different social and climate change scenarios in the format consistent with the National Emissions Inventory (NEI). We take into account changes in population, economy, policy and regulations, technology, transportation, energy usage, landscape and land use, and vegetation and land cover in the development of a future emissions inventory. Our approach for anthropogenic emissions is to formulate the emission projections for a given scenario into growth factors that can be used to project forward the NEI. Biogenic emissions are projected with a terrestrial land-use model in consideration of different climate change scenarios. Finally, a Decision Support System (DSS) is developed that allows users to obtain background information, explore data, analyze and evaluate alternative scenarios, and focus on and depict critical interdependent relationships. The development and application of the EIMS will make a major contribution to a key goal of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Global Change Research Program to quantify the emissions associated with, and resulting effects of, regional and global changes on air quality.
During Year 2 of the project, we:
- Improved the methodology to transform the SCC level (or process-based) emissions reported in NEI to economic sector level (based on Standard Industrial Classification code and later on North American Industry Classification System code) emissions required by the econometric model. Emissions from on-road transportation and household activities are handled separately using the vehicle miles traveled, population, and energy usage data.
- Investigated the National Emissions Trend data and the past social and economic activity data to establish the relationship between emission intensity (EMI) and time. This time-varying EMI is used in future emission inventory development.
- Completed the development of continuous-time regional econometric input-output model (REIM) for Chicago area; the similar model for the Midwest region is at the test stage.
- Developed scenarios of future emissions in Chicago area based on constant (at 1999 level) EMI and changing EMI, indicating the capability of our EIMs to formulate a wide range of scenarios.
- Compared our emissions scenarios with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projections and the one predicted using the Economic Growth Analysis System, an EPA emission projection model.
- Specified the input data for Argo-Issue-Based Information System (IBIS) model and conduct 1-year current (1995) and 1-year future (2050, A1Fi scenario) simulations. The preliminary model results show 1-year climate data may not be enough to simulate an appropriate vegetation response. Other climate data are solicited to do a more complete simulation.
In the next project year, we will:
- Complete the procedure that generates a NEI-like future emissions inventory so that it can be directly input to the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions model, an emission processing model.
- Continue to refine the continuous-time REIM to support emission prediction.
- Extend the REIM capability to the entire Midwest region.
- Run Argo-IBIS to project changes in land over and biogenic emissions over the Midwest region under different climate change scenarios, using National Centers for Environmental Prediction reanalysis data for the North American region as current climatology representation and the Parallel Climate Model as climatology for the 2050 simulation.
- Complete the development of DSS.
- Publish the results in peer-reviewed journal articles.