2004 Progress Report: Development and Evaluation of a Methodology for Determining Air Pollution Emissions Relative to Geophysical and Societal ChangeEPA Grant Number: R831449
Title: Development and Evaluation of a Methodology for Determining Air Pollution Emissions Relative to Geophysical and Societal Change
Investigators: Williams, Allen , Bye, Beth , Donaghy, Kieran P. , Hewings, Geoffrey , Tao, Zhining , Wuebbles, Donald J.
Current Investigators: Williams, Allen , Bye, Beth , Donaghy, Kieran P. , Ha, Soo Jung , Hewings, Geoffrey , Pallathucheril, Varkki , Tao, Zhining , Wuebbles, Donald J.
Institution: University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
EPA Project Officer: Chung, Serena
Project Period: February 1, 2004 through January 31, 2007 (Extended to July 31, 2007)
Project Period Covered by this Report: February 1, 2004 through January 31, 2005
Project Amount: $749,999
RFA: Consequences of Global Change for Air Quality: Spatial Patterns in Air Pollution Emissions (2003) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Air Quality and Air Toxics , Global Climate Change , Climate Change , Air
The overall objective of this research project is to develop an Emissions Inventory Modeling System (EIMS) that uses econometric models and emissions development tools to formulate future emissions inventories for different climate change scenarios in the format consistent with the National Emissions Inventory (NEI). Changes in population, economy, policies and regulations, technological development, transportation systems, energy systems, landscape and land use, and vegetation and land cover are being considered within the development of the EIMS capability. The specific objectives of this research project are to:
- develop methods and demonstrate capabilities to produce future emissions for climate and air quality modeling over Chicago and the Midwest(following the convention of the NEI, the inventories will consist of county-or grid-level annual point, area, and mobile inventories);
- develop a vegetation cover and land use dataset under future scenarios to address changes in biogenic emissions;
- and (develop a user accessible Decision Support System that will allow users to obtain background information, explore data, analyze and evaluate alternative scenarios, and focus on and depict critical interdependent relationships.
For the initial development and testing of the modeling system, the focus is on the Chicago area, where the econometric modeling is most highly refined. During the later stages of the research, the methods will be extended to the entire Midwest and demonstrate the wider applicability of the techniques. The application of the EIMS will make a major contribution to a key goal of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Global Change Research Program to quantify the emissions associated with, and resulting effects of, regional and global changes on air quality.
The Year 1 accomplishments include:
- We surveyed the overall pollutant emissions in the Chicago area based on NEI99 inventory. Emissions from three major source categories (i.e., point, on-road mobile, and area) were analyzed.
- We developed the framework to transform the source classification code (SCC) level (or process-based) emissions reported in NEI99 to economic sector level (based on standard industrial classification [SIC] code) emissions required by the econometric model. The transformation has been accomplished by assigning SCC emissions to each SIC based on NEI99 reporting, national truck survey data, analogue technique, and expert judgment.
- We formulated a set of sectoral emissions coefficients (EC) based on 1999 emissions data and economic outputs. Assuming a constant EC, we calculated the pollutant emissions from 1970 to 2030 out of the economic output for the same period.
- We analyzed the emissions evolution from 1970-2030. The preliminary results show the importance of the impact of economic structure changes on pollutant emissions.
- We formulated a perturbed future emissions scenario under the EPA “diesel rule,” in which only a portion of emissions was affected. This demonstrates our capability of studying future emissions under combined economic and technological changes and indicates the essence in developing a time-dependent EC to a better estimate of future emissions.
- We set up the Argo-Integrated Biospheric Simulator (IBIS) model and developed a strategy to assimilate 230 species in the Biogenic Emissions Landcover Database version 3.1 (BELD3) data set to 15 biomes used in IBIS.
- We aggregated 1-km resolution BELD3 data into 30-km resolution value so that we can take advantage of the CMM5’s output of future climate data to forecast future land cover and the resultant biogenic emissions using Argo-IBIS.
- We are well positioned in the research progress as originally proposed.
In the next year, we plan to:
- Streamline the transformation from economic sector to SCC level emissions to construct future inventories in a format consistent with NEI99 so that they can be processed using the existing emissions model (e.g., Sparse Matrix Operating Kernel Emissions or SMOKE) in preparation of temporalized, gridded, and speciated emissions for the study of climate and air quality.
- Adapt the MARKet ALlocation (commonly known as MARKAL) model to develop a series of future emissions scenarios in line with changes in energy usage, economic conditions, technology, and climate.
- Continue to reformulate the Chicago Regional Econometric Input-Output Model to build in continuous time capability and to support emissions prediction.
- Analyze decomposition of changes in pollution in the Chicago area.
- Extend the model capability to the entire Midwest region.
- Run Argo-IBIS to project changes in land over and biogenic emissions over the Midwest region under different climate change scenarios.
- Perform regional climate and air-quality simulations for the Midwest region.
- Publish the results in peer-reviewed journal articles.