Development and Evaluation of a Methodology for Determining Air Pollution Emissions Relative to Geophysical and Societal Change

EPA Grant Number: R831449
Title: Development and Evaluation of a Methodology for Determining Air Pollution Emissions Relative to Geophysical and Societal Change
Investigators: Williams, Allen , Donaghy, Kieran P. , Hewings, Geoffrey , Wuebbles, Donald J.
Current Investigators: Williams, Allen , Bye, Beth , Donaghy, Kieran P. , Ha, Soo Jung , Hewings, Geoffrey , Pallathucheril, Varkki , Tao, Zhining , Wuebbles, Donald J.
Institution: University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
EPA Project Officer: Chung, Serena
Project Period: February 1, 2004 through January 31, 2007 (Extended to July 31, 2007)
Project Amount: $749,999
RFA: Consequences of Global Change for Air Quality: Spatial Patterns in Air Pollution Emissions (2003) RFA Text |  Recipients Lists
Research Category: Air Quality and Air Toxics , Global Climate Change , Climate Change , Air


We propose to develop an Emissions Inventory Modeling System (EIMS) that uses econometric models and emission development tools to formulate future emission inventories for different climate change scenarios in the format used for the National Emissions Inventories (NEI). The objectives of this project are to develop methods and demonstrate a capability to produce future emissions out to 2100 for regional climate and air quality modeling and to develop an approach for extending coverage to all regions of the nation. As a first priority, we will address changes in the spatial distribution of mobile source emissions due to interactions between climate, land-use, and technology change and regional transportation systems, but our approach also addresses changes in the spatial distribution of stationary and biogenic sources.


The general procedure is to use regional econometric model output to develop emission inventories first for Chicago, then extend the approach to develop Midwest inventories, and present a framework for extending the method to develop a national emission inventory. The time frame for emissions development will begin in 1999, so modeled inventories can be compared with NEI inventories for validation, and will extend out to 2100. A Decision Support System will be developed to couple the regional econometric model to the emission inventory model. Changes in population, economy, policy and regulations, technology development, transportation systems, energy systems, landscape and land-use, and vegetation and land cover will all be considered in the development of the EIMS capability. For the initial development and testing, the focus will be on the Chicago area where the econometric modeling is most highly refined, and during the later stages of the research the methods will be extended to the entire Midwest to demonstrate the wider applicability of the techniques.

Expected Results:

Incorporating the mathematically refined and verifiable methods of regional econometric modeling into our framework for computing amounts and spatial distributions of pollutants allows us to quantitatively deal with such factors as technology change, regional development patterns, regional transportation systems, and land-use changes. The application of this unique modeling system will make a major contribution to a key goal of the EPA Global Change Research Program to quantify the emissions associated with, and resulting effects of, regional and global changes on air quality.

Publications and Presentations:

Publications have been submitted on this project: View all 7 publications for this project

Journal Articles:

Journal Articles have been submitted on this project: View all 3 journal articles for this project

Supplemental Keywords:

global change, climate change, emission, stationary sources, mobile sources, biogenic sources, pollutant transport, regional climate model, air quality model, land-use change, technological change, fragmentation of production, transportation intensive production, regional econometric input-output model, spatial-interaction model, decision support system., RFA, Scientific Discipline, Air, Ecosystem Protection/Environmental Exposure & Risk, climate change, Air Pollution Effects, Monitoring/Modeling, Environmental Monitoring, Atmospheric Sciences, Ecological Risk Assessment, anthropogenic stress, atmospheric dispersion models, environmental measurement, meteorology, Emissions Inventory Modeling System, climatic influence, emissions monitoring, future projections, global change, economic models, emissions inventory, climate models, greenhouse gases, societal changes, environmental stress, regional emissions model, ecological models, climate model, greenhouse gas, atmospheric models, land use, Global Climate Change, atmospheric chemistry, air quality, ambient air pollution

Progress and Final Reports:

  • 2004 Progress Report
  • 2005 Progress Report
  • 2006 Progress Report
  • Final Report