Development and Evaluation of a Methodology for Determining Air Pollution Emissions Relative to Geophysical and Societal ChangeEPA Grant Number: R831449
Title: Development and Evaluation of a Methodology for Determining Air Pollution Emissions Relative to Geophysical and Societal Change
Investigators: Williams, Allen , Donaghy, Kieran P. , Hewings, Geoffrey , Wuebbles, Donald J.
Current Investigators: Williams, Allen , Bye, Beth , Donaghy, Kieran P. , Ha, Soo Jung , Hewings, Geoffrey , Pallathucheril, Varkki , Tao, Zhining , Wuebbles, Donald J.
Institution: University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
EPA Project Officer: Chung, Serena
Project Period: February 1, 2004 through January 31, 2007 (Extended to July 31, 2007)
Project Amount: $749,999
RFA: Consequences of Global Change for Air Quality: Spatial Patterns in Air Pollution Emissions (2003) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Air Quality and Air Toxics , Global Climate Change , Climate Change , Air
We propose to develop an Emissions Inventory Modeling System (EIMS) that uses econometric models and emission development tools to formulate future emission inventories for different climate change scenarios in the format used for the National Emissions Inventories (NEI). The objectives of this project are to develop methods and demonstrate a capability to produce future emissions out to 2100 for regional climate and air quality modeling and to develop an approach for extending coverage to all regions of the nation. As a first priority, we will address changes in the spatial distribution of mobile source emissions due to interactions between climate, land-use, and technology change and regional transportation systems, but our approach also addresses changes in the spatial distribution of stationary and biogenic sources.
The general procedure is to use regional econometric model output to develop emission inventories first for Chicago, then extend the approach to develop Midwest inventories, and present a framework for extending the method to develop a national emission inventory. The time frame for emissions development will begin in 1999, so modeled inventories can be compared with NEI inventories for validation, and will extend out to 2100. A Decision Support System will be developed to couple the regional econometric model to the emission inventory model. Changes in population, economy, policy and regulations, technology development, transportation systems, energy systems, landscape and land-use, and vegetation and land cover will all be considered in the development of the EIMS capability. For the initial development and testing, the focus will be on the Chicago area where the econometric modeling is most highly refined, and during the later stages of the research the methods will be extended to the entire Midwest to demonstrate the wider applicability of the techniques.
Incorporating the mathematically refined and verifiable methods of regional econometric modeling into our framework for computing amounts and spatial distributions of pollutants allows us to quantitatively deal with such factors as technology change, regional development patterns, regional transportation systems, and land-use changes. The application of this unique modeling system will make a major contribution to a key goal of the EPA Global Change Research Program to quantify the emissions associated with, and resulting effects of, regional and global changes on air quality.