Final Report: Sensitivity and Uncertainty Assessment of Global Climate Change Impacts on Ozone and Particulate Matter: Examination of Direct and Indirect, Emission-Induced Effects

EPA Grant Number: R830960
Title: Sensitivity and Uncertainty Assessment of Global Climate Change Impacts on Ozone and Particulate Matter: Examination of Direct and Indirect, Emission-Induced Effects
Investigators: Russell, Armistead G. , Amar, Praveen
Institution: Georgia Institute of Technology , Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management
EPA Project Officer: Chung, Serena
Project Period: March 23, 2003 through March 22, 2006 (Extended to March 22, 2007)
Project Amount: $899,494
RFA: Assessing the Consequences of Global Change for Air Quality: Sensitivity of U.S. Air Quality to Climate Change and Future Global Impacts (2002) RFA Text |  Recipients Lists
Research Category: Climate Change , Air , Air Quality and Air Toxics , Global Climate Change

Objective:

The objectives of the study were to:

  • Assess and compare the impacts of the direct (i.e., from the impact of climate change on meteorology) and indirect (those resulting from emissions changes) effects on regional air quality.
  • Conduct preliminary tests of how mean temperature change in the future affects regional air quality.
  • Provide quantification of the sensitivities in those impacts using direct sensitivity analysis.
  • Account for the uncertainties in future climate change and evaluate the uncertainties in regional air quality and its sensitivities due to climate change uncertainties.
  • Determine to the extent possible at this time if climate change forcing has potentially significant and probable impacts on the direction and magnitude of current emissions controls being considered in the United States for improving air quality (in this case, ozone and fine particulate matter).
  • Further develop the capabilities of the air quality planning organization involved to conduct future studies of this type.

The first objective is the more traditional concern.  We study how air quality is potentially impacted both by the direct forcing alone, as well as the direct and indirect forcings combined, for two reasons:  (1) to isolate and better understand which processes are primarily responsible for changes found; and (2) to recognize that the indirect effects are more uncertain at this time.  While sensitivity and uncertainty assessment, the second, third, and fourth objectives, should be included in any modeling study, in dealing with global climate change such an assessment is the most critical and compelling.  The final two objectives, however, are driven by the most critical issue covered in this proposal:  Does the potential of global climate change influence the choices policymakers need to make when dealing with improving regional air quality now and in the future?  If global climate change is found to have some impact on air quality in the United States (which is very likely), but has little influence on what are the most effective directions for improving air quality (to which the answer is not obvious), the regulatory path is more clear and robust.

Summary/Accomplishments (Outputs/Outcomes):

Year 1

We dealt with the multi-institutional project coordination, beginning with a meeting in Boston (since two of the institutions are based there).  A second meeting was held in Atlanta between the Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management (NESCAUM) staff member and the Georgia Institute of Technology (GaTech) group to transfer technologies and skills.  This is a significant effort in this project as one of the objectives is to develop skills of the Regional Air Quality Planning organization to conduct such studies in the future.

Year 2

With help of the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), a number of annual Mesoscale Model (MM5) datasets dynamically downscaled from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) model were developed.  The data was transferred to GaTech for use as nominal (or base) meteorological input for driving Sparse Matrix Operator Kernal Emissions (SMOKE) and Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ).  The same datasets have also been distributed to the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) for use as proxy meteorology for future climate.  In order to develop a preliminary assessment of how climate changes will impact air quality, a short summer period was simulated.  A meeting among all the groups involved in the study (i.e., GaTech, NESCAUM, and MIT) was held in Boston in March (2005) to discuss technical details.

Year 3

During this year, a major part of the project had been done.  New emission inventories for historic (i.e., 2001) and future (i.e., 2050) years had been prepared and the final simulations had been started.  MIT finished the work for preparing uncertainty fields for temperature and humidity.  These fields are given as uncertainty percentiles (0.5% and 99.5%) based on the base case (50%).  A meeting among all the groups involved in the study (i.e. GaTech, NESCAUM, and MIT) was held in Atlanta in October (2005) to discuss the final technical details.  Due to the time simulation process needed and the delay in the project start, the project has been prolonged to a 4th year with a no-cost extension.

Year 4

During this year, the final simulations and post-processing work have been finished.  The results reveal that the impact of climate change alone on regional air quality over the United States has a minor importance compared to the applied strategies for emissions control.  The significant reductions predicted for sulfate, nitrate, and ammonium concentrations in the future will set organic carbon as the most important PM2.5 component.  Uncertainties in O3 and PM2.5 concentrations due to climate change are larger in the higher extreme case.  Plains have higher uncertainties than elsewhere because the temperature is more uncertain there.  Sensitivities of O3 and PM2.5 formation to precursor emissions are found to change only slightly in response to climate change.  SO2 emission controls are predicted to be most beneficial for decreasing summertime PM2.5 levels while controls of NOx emissions increase in effectiveness in winter.  Contributions of biogenic VOC emissions to PM2.5 formation are simulated to be more important in the future because of higher temperatures, higher biogenic emissions, and lower anthropogenic NOx and SO2 emissions.  A significant number of publications have been published, submitted, or are in preparation for journal publication besides the conference presentations.  Results of our studies have been utilized by NESCAUM in assessing control strategies.

Conclusions:

Publishing the results, mainly in peer-reviewed journals and continuing to present results in peer-reviewed conferences and for policymakers.


Journal Articles on this Report : 33 Displayed | Download in RIS Format

Other project views: All 53 publications 33 publications in selected types All 33 journal articles
Type Citation Project Document Sources
Journal Article Blanc E, Strzepek K, Schlosser A, Jacoby H, Gueneau A, Fant C, Rausch S, Reilly J. Modeling U.S. water resources under climate change. Earth’s Future 2014;2(4):197-224. R830960 (Final)
R834279 (Final)
  • Full-text: Wiley-Full Text PDF
    Exit
  • Abstract: Wiley-Abstract
    Exit
  • Journal Article Fant C, Schlosser CA, Gao X, Strzepek K, Reilly J. Projections of water stress based on an ensemble of socioeconomic growth and climate change scenarios: a case study in Asia. PLoS One 2016;11(3):e0150633 (33 pp.). R830960 (Final)
    R834279 (Final)
  • Full-text from PubMed
  • Abstract from PubMed
  • Associated PubMed link
  • Full-text: PLoS-Full Text PDF
    Exit
  • Abstract: PLoS-Abstract & Full Text HTML
    Exit
  • Journal Article Habermacher FD, Napelenok SL, Akhtar F, Hu Y, Russell AG. Area of influence (AOI) development: fast generation of receptor-oriented sensitivity fields for use in regional air quality modeling. Environmental Science & Technology 2007;41(11):3997-4003. R830960 (Final)
    R831076 (Final)
    R832159 (Final)
  • Abstract from PubMed
  • Full-text: ACS-Full Text HTML
    Exit
  • Abstract: ACS-Abstract
    Exit
  • Other: ACS-Full Text PDF
    Exit
  • Journal Article Hu Y, Odman MT, Russell AG. Mass conservation in the Community Multiscale Air Quality model. Atmospheric Environment 2006;40(7):1199-1204. R830960 (Final)
    R831076 (Final)
  • Full-text: Science Direct-Full Text HTML
    Exit
  • Abstract: Science Direct-Abstract
    Exit
  • Other: Science Direct-Full Text PDF
    Exit
  • Journal Article Hu Y, Odman MT, Chang ME, Jackson W, Lee S, Edgerton ES, Baumann K, Russell AG. Simulation of air quality impacts from prescribed fires on an urban area. Environmental Science & Technology 2008;42(10):3676-3682. R830960 (Final)
    R831076 (Final)
    R832276 (Final)
  • Abstract from PubMed
  • Full-text: ES&T-Full Text HTML
    Exit
  • Abstract: ES&T-Abstract
    Exit
  • Other: ES&T-Full Text PDF
    Exit
  • Journal Article Lee S, Russell AG. Estimating uncertainties and uncertainty contributors of CMB PM2.5 source apportionment results. Atmospheric Environment 2007;41(40):9616-9624. R830960 (Final)
    R831076 (Final)
    R832159 (Final)
  • Full-text: Science Direct-Full Text HTML
    Exit
  • Abstract: Science Direct-Abstract
    Exit
  • Other: Science Direct-Full Text PDF
    Exit
  • Journal Article Lee S, Russell AG, Baumann K. Source apportionment of fine particulate matter in the southeastern United States. Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association 2007;57(9):1123-1135. R830960 (Final)
    R831076 (Final)
    R832159 (Final)
  • Abstract from PubMed
  • Full-text: Taylor & Francis-Full Text PDF
    Exit
  • Abstract: Taylor & Francis-Abstract
    Exit
  • Journal Article Liao K-J, Tagaris E, Manomaiphiboon K, Napelenok SL, Woo J-H, He S, Amar P, Russell AG. Sensitivities of ozone and fine particulate matter formation to emissions under the impact of potential future climate change. Environmental Science & Technology 2007;41(24):8355-8361. R830960 (Final)
    R831076 (Final)
    R832159 (Final)
  • Abstract from PubMed
  • Full-text: ES&T-Full Text HTML
    Exit
  • Abstract: ES&T-Abstract
    Exit
  • Other: ES&T-Full Text PDF
    Exit
  • Journal Article Liao K-J, Tagaris E, Napelenok SL, Manomaiphiboon K, Woo J-H, Amar P, He S, Russell AG. Current and future linked responses of ozone and PM2.5 to emission controls. Environmental Science & Technology 2008;42(13):4670-4675. R830960 (Final)
    R831076 (Final)
    R832159 (Final)
  • Abstract from PubMed
  • Full-text: ES&T-Full Text HTML
    Exit
  • Abstract: ES&T-Abstract
    Exit
  • Other: ES&T-Full Text PDF
    Exit
  • Journal Article Liao K-J, Tagaris E, Manomaiphiboon K, Wang C, Woo J-H, Amar P, He S, Russell AG. Quantification of the impact of climate uncertainty on regional air quality. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 2009;9(3):865-878. R830960 (Final)
    R831838 (2007)
  • Full-text: ACP-Full Text PDF
    Exit
  • Abstract: ACP-Abstract
    Exit
  • Journal Article Liao K-J, Tagaris E, Russell AG, Amar P, He S, Manomaiphiboon K, Woo J-H. Cost analysis of impacts of climate change on regional air quality. Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association 2010;60(2):195-203. R830960 (Final)
  • Abstract from PubMed
  • Full-text: Taylor and Francis-Full Text PDF
    Exit
  • Abstract: Taylor and Francis-Abstract
    Exit
  • Journal Article Marmur A, Unal A, Mulholland JA, Russell AG. Optimization-based source apportionment of PM2.5 incorporating gas-to-particle ratios. Environmental Science & Technology 2005;39(9):3245-3254. R830960 (Final)
    R829213 (2006)
    R829213 (Final)
    R831076 (2004)
    R831076 (2007)
    R831076 (Final)
    R832159 (2005)
    R832159 (2006)
    R832159 (2007)
    R832159 (Final)
  • Abstract from PubMed
  • Full-text: ES&T-Full Text HTML
    Exit
  • Abstract: ES&T-Abstract
    Exit
  • Other: ES&T-Full Text PDF
    Exit
  • Journal Article Marmur A, Park S-K, Mulholland JA, Tolbert PE, Russell AG. Source apportionment of PM2.5 in the southeastern United States using receptor and emissions-based models:conceptual differences and implications for time-series health studies. Atmospheric Environment 2006;40(14):2533-2551. R830960 (Final)
    R829213 (Final)
    R831076 (2007)
    R831076 (Final)
    R832159 (2005)
    R832159 (2006)
    R832159 (2007)
    R832159 (Final)
  • Full-text: ScienceDirect-Full Text HTML
    Exit
  • Abstract: ScienceDirect-Abstract
    Exit
  • Other: ScienceDirect-Full Text PDF
    Exit
  • Journal Article Marmur A, Mulholland JA, Russell AG. Optimized variable source-profile approach for source apportionment. Atmospheric Environment 2007;41(3):493-505. R830960 (Final)
    R829213 (Final)
    R831076 (Final)
    R832159 (2006)
    R832159 (Final)
  • Full-text: Science Direct-Full Text HTML
    Exit
  • Abstract: Science Direct-Abstract
    Exit
  • Other: Science Direct-Full Text PDF
    Exit
  • Journal Article Nam K-M, Selin NE, Reilly JM, Paltsev S. Measuring welfare loss caused by air pollution in Europe:a CGE analysis. Energy Policy 2010;38(9):5059-5071. R830960 (Final)
    R834279 (Final)
  • Full-text: ScienceDirect-Full Text HTML
    Exit
  • Abstract: ScienceDirect-Abstract
    Exit
  • Other: ScienceDirect-Full Text PDF
    Exit
  • Journal Article Napelenok SL, Habermacher FD, Akhtar F, Hu Y, Russell AG. Area of influence (AOI) sensitivity analysis: application to Atlanta, Georgia. Atmospheric Environment 2007;41(27):5605-5617. R830960 (Final)
    R831076 (Final)
    R832159 (2006)
    R832159 (Final)
  • Full-text: Science Direct-Full Text HTML
    Exit
  • Abstract: Science Direct-Abstract
    Exit
  • Other: Science Direct-Full Text PDF
    Exit
  • Journal Article Park S-K, Marmur A, Kim SB, Tian D, Hu Y, McMurry PH, Russell AG. Evaluation of fine particle number concentrations in CMAQ. Aerosol Science and Technology 2006;40(11):985-996. R830960 (Final)
    R831076 (2005)
    R831076 (2006)
    R831076 (Final)
    R832159 (2005)
    R832159 (2006)
    R832159 (2007)
    R832159 (Final)
  • Full-text: Taylor & Francis-Full Text HTML
    Exit
  • Abstract: Taylor & Francis-Abstract
    Exit
  • Other: Taylor & Francis-Full Text PDF
    Exit
  • Journal Article Park S-K, Cobb CE, Wade K, Mulholland J, Hu Y, Russell AG. Uncertainty in air quality model evaluation for particulate matter due to spatial variations in pollutant concentrations. Atmospheric Environment 2006;40(Suppl 2):563-573. R830960 (Final)
    R831076 (2006)
    R831076 (Final)
    R832159 (2005)
    R832159 (2006)
    R832159 (2007)
    R832159 (Final)
  • Full-text: Science Direct-Full Text HTML
    Exit
  • Abstract: Science Direct-Abstract
    Exit
  • Other: Science Direct-Full Text PDF
    Exit
  • Journal Article Sarnat JA, Marmur A, Klein M, Kim E, Russell AG, Sarnat SE, Mulholland JA, Hopke PK, Tolbert PE. Fine particle sources and cardiorespiratory morbidity: an application of chemical mass balance and factor analytical source-apportionment methods. Environmental Health Perspectives 2008;116(4):459-466. R830960 (Final)
    R829213 (Final)
    R831076 (Final)
    R832159 (Final)
  • Full-text from PubMed
  • Abstract from PubMed
  • Associated PubMed link
  • Full-text: EHP-Full Text HTML
  • Other: EHP-Full Text PDF
  • Journal Article Sarnat SE, Klein M, Sarnat JA, Flanders WD, Waller LA, Mulholland JA, Russell AG, Tolbert PE. An examination of exposure measurement error from air pollutant spatial variability in time-series studies. Journal of Exposure Science and Environmental Epidemiology 2010;20(2):135-146. R830960 (Final)
    R829213 (Final)
    R831076 (Final)
    R832159 (Final)
  • Full-text from PubMed
  • Abstract from PubMed
  • Associated PubMed link
  • Full-text: JESEE-Full Text PDF
    Exit
  • Abstract: JESEE-Abstract & Full Text HTML
    Exit
  • Journal Article Schlosser CA, Strzepek K, Gao X, Fant C, Blanc E, Paltsev S, Jacoby H, Reilly J, Gueneau A. The future of global water stress: an integrated assessment. Earth’s Future 2014;2(8):341-361. R830960 (Final)
    R834279 (Final)
  • Full-text: Wiley-Full Text PDF
    Exit
  • Abstract: Wiley-Abstract
    Exit
  • Journal Article Strzepek K, Schlosser A, Gueneau A, Gao X, Blanc E, Fant C, Rasheed B, Jacoby HD. Modeling water resource systems within the framework of the MIT Integrated Global System Model: IGSM-WRS. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems 2013;5(3):638-653. R830960 (Final)
    R834279 (Final)
  • Full-text: Wiley-Full Text PDF
    Exit
  • Abstract: Wiley-Abstract & Full Text HTML
    Exit
  • Journal Article Tagaris E, Manomaiphiboon K, Liao K-J, Leung LR, Woo J-H, He S, Amar P, Russell AG.  Impacts of global climate change and emissions on regional ozone and fine particulate matter concentrations over the United States.  Journal of Geophysical Research 2007;112(D14):D14312 (11 pp.). R830960 (Final)
    R831076 (Final)
  • Full-text: AGU-Full Text HTML
    Exit
  • Other: AGU-Full Text PDF
    Exit
  • Journal Article Tagaris E, Liao K-J, Manomaiphiboon K, Woo J-H, He S, Amar P, Russell AG. Impacts of future climate change and emissions reductions on nitrogen and sulfur deposition over the United States. Geophysical Research Letters 2008;35(8):L08811 (6 pp.). R830960 (Final)
    R831076 (Final)
  • Full-text: AGU-Full Text HTML
    Exit
  • Other: AGU-Full Text PDF
    Exit
  • Journal Article Tagaris E, Liao K-J, Manomaiphiboon K, He S, Woo J-H, Amar P, Russell AG. The role of climate and emission changes in future air quality over southern Canada and northern Mexico. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 2008;8(14):3973-3983. R830960 (Final)
    R831076 (Final)
    R831838 (2007)
  • Full-text: ACP-Full Text PDF
    Exit
  • Abstract: ACP-Abstract
    Exit
  • Journal Article Tagaris E, Liao K-J, DeLucia AJ, Deck L, Amar P, Russell AG. Potential impact of climate change on air pollution-related human health effects. Environmental Science & Technology 2009;43(13):4979-4988. R830960 (Final)
    R831076 (Final)
    R831838 (2007)
  • Abstract from PubMed
  • Full-text: ACS-Full Text HTML
    Exit
  • Abstract: ACS-Abstract
    Exit
  • Other: ACS-Full Text PDF
    Exit
  • Journal Article Tagaris E, Liao K-J, DeLucia AJ, Deck L, Amar P, Russell AG. Sensitivity of air pollution-induced premature mortality to precursor emissions under the influence of climate change. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 2010;7(5):2222-2237. R830960 (Final)
    R831076 (Final)
    R831838 (2007)
  • Full-text from PubMed
  • Abstract from PubMed
  • Associated PubMed link
  • Full-text: MDPI-Full Text HTML
    Exit
  • Other: MDPI-Full Text PDF
    Exit
  • Journal Article Tian D, Wang Y, Bergin M, Hu Y, Liu Y, Russell AG. Air quality impacts from prescribed forest fires under different management practices. Environmental Science & Technology 2008;42(8):2767-2772. R830960 (Final)
    R831076 (Final)
    R832276 (2007)
    R832276 (Final)
  • Abstract from PubMed
  • Full-text: ES&T-Full Text HTML
    Exit
  • Abstract: ES&T-Abstract
    Exit
  • Other: ES&T-Full Text PDF
    Exit
  • Journal Article Tian D, Hu Y, Wang Y, Boylan JW, Zheng M, Russell AG. Assessment of biomass burning emissions and their impacts on urban and regional PM2.5:a Georgia case study. Environmental Science & Technology 2009;43(2):299-305. R830960 (Final)
    R831076 (Final)
    R832276 (Final)
  • Abstract from PubMed
  • Full-text: ES&T-Full Text PDF
    Exit
  • Abstract: ES&T-Abstract
    Exit
  • Other: Georgia Tech-Full Text PDF
    Exit
  • Journal Article Weaver CP, Liang X-Z, Zhu J, Adams PJ, Amar P, Avise J, Caughey M, Chen J, Cohen RC, Cooter E, Dawson JP, Gilliam R, Gilliland A, Goldstein AH, Grambsch A, Grano D, Guenther A, Gustafson WI, Harley RA, He S, Hemming B, Hogrefe C, Huang H-C, Hunt SW, Jacob DJ, Kinney PL, Kunkel K, Lamarque J-F, Lamb B, Larkin NK, Leung LR, Liao K-J, Lin J-T, Lynn BH, Manomaiphiboon K, Mass C, McKenzie D, Mickley LJ, O'neill SM, Nolte C, Pandis SN, Racherla PN, Rosenzweig C, Russell AG, Salathe E, Steiner AL, Tagaris E, Tao Z, Tonse S, Wiedinmyer C, Williams A, Winner DA, Woo J-H, Wu S, Wuebbles DJ. A preliminary synthesis of modeled climate change impacts on U.S. regional ozone concentrations. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 2009;90(12):1843-1863. R830960 (Final)
    R830964 (Final)
    R833369 (Final)
    R833370 (Final)
    R833373 (Final)
    R833374 (Final)
  • Full-text: AMS-Full Text PDF
    Exit
  • Abstract: AMS-Abstract
    Exit
  • Journal Article Weber RJ, Sullivan AP, Peltier RE, Russell A, Yan B, Zheng M, de Gouw J, Warneke C, Brock C, Holloway JS, Atlas EL, Edgerton E. A study of secondary organic aerosol formation in the anthropogenic-influenced southeastern United States. Journal of Geophysical Research 2007;112(D13):D13302 (13 pp.). R830960 (Final)
    R831076 (2007)
    R831076 (Final)
  • Full-text: AGU-Full Text HTML
    Exit
  • Other: AGU-Full Text PDF
    Exit
  • Journal Article Woo JH, He S, Tagaris E, Liao K-J, Manomaiphiboon K, Amar P, Russell AG. Development of North American emission inventories for air quality modeling under climate change. Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association 2008;58(11):1483-1494. R830960 (Final)
    R831076 (Final)
  • Abstract from PubMed
  • Full-text: Taylor and Francis-Full Text PDF
    Exit
  • Abstract: Taylor and Francis-Abstract
    Exit
  • Journal Article Zeng T, Wang Y, Yoshida Y, Tian D, Russell AG, Barnard WR. Impacts of prescribed fires on air quality over the Southeastern United States in spring based on modeling and ground/satellite measurements. Environmental Science & Technology 2008;42(22):8401-8406. R830960 (Final)
    R831076 (Final)
    R832276 (Final)
  • Abstract from PubMed
  • Full-text: ES&T-Full Text HTML
    Exit
  • Abstract: ES&T-Abstract
    Exit
  • Other: ES&T-Full Text PDF
    Exit
  • Supplemental Keywords:

    air quality, climate change, meteorological downscaling, emissions projection, sensitivity, uncertainty,, RFA, Scientific Discipline, Air, Ecosystem Protection/Environmental Exposure & Risk, particulate matter, Air Quality, Air Pollutants, Chemistry, climate change, Air Pollution Effects, Monitoring/Modeling, Atmospheric Sciences, Environmental Engineering, Atmosphere, anthropogenic stress, aerosol formation, ambient aerosol, atmospheric particulate matter, atmospheric dispersion models, ecosystem models, environmental monitoring, environmental measurement, meteorology, climatic influence, emissions monitoring, global change, ozone, air quality models, climate, climate models, greenhouse gases, airborne aerosols, atmospheric aerosol particles, atmospheric transport, Integrated Global Systems Model, environmental stress, ecological models, climate model, greenhouse gas, aerosols, atmospheric models, Global Climate Change, atmospheric chemistry, ambient air pollution

    Relevant Websites:

    http://www.ce.gatech.edu/people/faculty/411/overview Exit

    Progress and Final Reports:

    Original Abstract
  • 2003 Progress Report
  • 2004 Progress Report
  • 2005 Progress Report