Sensitivity and Uncertainty Assessment of Global Climate Change Impacts on Ozone and Particulate Matter: Examination of Direct and Indirect, Emission-Induced Effects

EPA Grant Number: R830960
Title: Sensitivity and Uncertainty Assessment of Global Climate Change Impacts on Ozone and Particulate Matter: Examination of Direct and Indirect, Emission-Induced Effects
Investigators: Russell, Armistead G. , Amar, Praveen , Kleiman, G. , Miller, R. , Odman, Mehmet Talat , Prinn, Ronald G. , Reilly, John , Wang, C. H.
Current Investigators: Russell, Armistead G. , Amar, Praveen
Institution: Georgia Institute of Technology , Massachusetts Institute of Technology , Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management
Current Institution: Georgia Institute of Technology , Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management
EPA Project Officer: Chung, Serena
Project Period: March 23, 2003 through March 22, 2006 (Extended to March 22, 2007)
Project Amount: $899,494
RFA: Assessing the Consequences of Global Change for Air Quality: Sensitivity of U.S. Air Quality to Climate Change and Future Global Impacts (2002) RFA Text |  Recipients Lists
Research Category: Climate Change , Air , Air Quality and Air Toxics , Global Climate Change

Objective:

The objectives of this research are to

  • Assess and compare the impacts on regional air quality from climate-induced meteorological changes from those resulting from emissions changes
  • Quantify of the sensitivities and uncertainties in those impacts
  • Determine if climate change forcing has potentially significant and probable impacts on direction and magnitude of controls being considered for improving air quality (in this case ozone and fine particulate matter) in the United States.

Uncertainties will be developed using both multiple IGSM simulations and using the DDM-3D derived sensitivity coefficients for first-order analyses. Pollutant concentration, deposition and sensitivity fields will be mapped and analyzed to assess changes due to climate change. Here, we intend to isolate the changes due directly to climate from those that are from climate change induced emissions changes. Central hypotheses to be tested in obtaining those objectives include: (1) ozone formation will become increasingly NOx-limited throughout most of the U.S., and this will decrease the uncertainty in the ozone simulations, (2) the ozone production efficiency (OPE) will remain relatively constant over time and between uncertainty simulations, also serving to limit uncertainty in future ozone levels and identifying effective approaches to manage ozone, (3) future fine particulate matter levels will be dominated by biogenic emissions, including biomass burning, which will lead to significant uncertainties, but can focus control considerations and (4) that local and regional emissions changes will have a greater impact on regional air quality than global background pollutant levels.

Approach:

MIT’s Integrated Global Systems Model (IGSM) results will be downscaled for use in the MM5/SMOKE/CMAQ (M-3) regional air quality modeling system to examine how future climate modification may impact ozone and fine particulate matter air quality in the United States. IGSM has been used to examine climate change uncertainties, and that uncertainty analysis will be propagated through the M-3 system for the years 2040 and 2080. In this study, CMAQ will be used with DDM-3D, an efficient approach to directly calculate model sensitivities to provide first-order sensitivity coefficients. Sensitivities of pollutant concentrations to emissions from biogenic and anthropogenic sources, including biomass burning (e.g., fires) will be determined. Here, M-3 simulations will be conducted for a domain covering the U.S. using 36 km grids for 2000, 2040 and 2080 yearlong periods using fields developed from IGSM. Shorter simulations (two weeks) will be chosen for summer ozone episodes using a 12 km grid

One issue that is important for this and other similar studies is how to downscale results from a global model for use in regional air quality modeling in a consistent fashion. This will be addressed by comparing results developed for 2000 with observations and a similar simulation that used NCEP data and FDDA to develop meteorological fields.

Expected Results:

The potential for global climate change to air quality is of concern to the scientific and policy-making communities, as well as the general public. Significantly complicating this problem are many uncertainties, both in the extent of climate change, and even more so in the response of local and regional air pollution concentrations in the U.S. This research will develop quantitative information on the likely extent of climate impacts on air quality, the levels of uncertainties, and the sensitivities of air quality to climate-induced perturbations.

Publications and Presentations:

Publications have been submitted on this project: View all 53 publications for this project

Journal Articles:

Journal Articles have been submitted on this project: View all 33 journal articles for this project

Supplemental Keywords:

Models 3, Direct Sensitivity Analysis, Air Quality Policy,, RFA, Scientific Discipline, Air, Ecosystem Protection/Environmental Exposure & Risk, particulate matter, Air Quality, Air Pollutants, climate change, Air Pollution Effects, Chemistry, Monitoring/Modeling, Atmospheric Sciences, Atmosphere, Environmental Engineering, anthropogenic stress, aerosol formation, ambient aerosol, atmospheric particulate matter, atmospheric dispersion models, ecosystem models, environmental monitoring, environmental measurement, meteorology, climatic influence, emissions monitoring, global change, ozone, air quality models, climate, climate models, greenhouse gases, airborne aerosols, atmospheric aerosol particles, atmospheric transport, Integrated Global Systems Model, environmental stress, ecological models, climate model, greenhouse gas, aerosols, atmospheric models, Global Climate Change, atmospheric chemistry, ambient air pollution

Progress and Final Reports:

  • 2003 Progress Report
  • 2004 Progress Report
  • 2005 Progress Report
  • Final Report