Trends in Floods and Low Flows in the U.S.: Impact of Spatial Correlation

EPA Grant Number: U915775
Title: Trends in Floods and Low Flows in the U.S.: Impact of Spatial Correlation
Investigators: Douglas, Ellen M.
Institution: Tufts University
EPA Project Officer: Jones, Brandon
Project Period: May 1, 2000 through May 1, 2002
Project Amount: $61,750
RFA: STAR Graduate Fellowships (2000) RFA Text |  Recipients Lists
Research Category: Academic Fellowships , Fellowship - Environmental Statistics , Environmental Statistics

Objective:

The objectives of this study are to: (1) investigate the existence of trends in flood and low flows to assess the potential impact of climate change and to compare with previous studies; and (2) evaluate the effect of spatial correlation of flow records on the interpretation of hypothesis test results by developing a hypothesis test that accounts for the spatial correlation of the data.

Approach:

Trends in flood and low flows in the United States will be evaluated using a regional average Kendall's S trend test at two spatial scales and over two timeframes. Field significance will be assessed using a bootstrap methodology to account for the regional cross-correlation of streamflows.

Expected Results:

The expected results of this research will demonstrate that the cross-correlation of flow records dramatically reduces the effective number of samples available for trend assessment.

Supplemental Keywords:

floods, low flows, trends, spatial correlation, field significance, hydroclimatology., RFA, Economic, Social, & Behavioral Science Research Program, Scientific Discipline, Air, Ecosystem Protection/Environmental Exposure & Risk, Hydrology, Ecosystem/Assessment/Indicators, Ecosystem Protection, exploratory research environmental biology, Chemical Mixtures - Environmental Exposure & Risk, Mathematics, climate change, Ecological Effects - Environmental Exposure & Risk, Ecological Effects - Human Health, Atmospheric Sciences, Ecology and Ecosystems, Environmental Statistics, Ecological Indicators, floods, climate change effects, climatic influence, climate change impact, trends, spatial correlation, low flows, field significance, trends in floods, climate impacts