Next Generation LUR Models: Development of Nationwide Modeling Tools for Exposure Assessment and Epidemiology

EPA Grant Number: R835873C003
Subproject: this is subproject number 003 , established and managed by the Center Director under grant R835873
(EPA does not fund or establish subprojects; EPA awards and manages the overall grant for this center).

Center: Center for Air, Climate, and Energy Solutions
Center Director: Robinson, Allen
Title: Next Generation LUR Models: Development of Nationwide Modeling Tools for Exposure Assessment and Epidemiology
Investigators: Marshall, Julian D. , Brauer, Michael , Hankey, Steve , Millet, Dylan B
Institution: University of Minnesota , University of British Columbia , Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University
EPA Project Officer: Chung, Serena
Project Period: May 1, 2016 through April 30, 2021
RFA: Air, Climate And Energy (ACE) Centers: Science Supporting Solutions (2014) RFA Text |  Recipients Lists
Research Category: Air , Climate Change

Objective:

To advance high-resolution spatiotemporal air pollution products, in order to document air pollution exposures for multiple pollutants and at multiple geographic scales. Results from our spatiotemporal models will aid in evaluating where to reduce emissions and concentrations with the goal of maximum impact to human health; they also will aid in documenting improvements in health that are attributable to prior improvements in air pollution (see Project 5) and thereby in estimating health impacts from future emission changes (see Project 4). Results will be robust, broadly useful to other researchers, and (based on work by our support center) publicly available.

Approach:

We propose developing two sets of multi-pollutant (PM2.5, NO2, O3, CO, and subspecies of PM2.5) land use regression (LUR) models: (1) high spatial resolution national-scale annual-average LUR models for multiple decades for use as exposure assessment tools (Project 5) and (2) high spatiotemporal resolution real-time (hourly) LUR models for the three case study cities (Pittsburgh, Austin, Los Angeles; Project 2). We will use a novel modeling approach to scale outputs from the annual-average models to estimates of real-time concentrations. Our annual-average models will include annual surfaces for year-2000 to present day; we will also employ methods for scaling year-2000 surfaces to previous decades using spatiotemporal factors derived from the monitoring network and/or concentration estimates from CTM models (Project 1), to estimate exposure as early as 1982 for the analyses in Project 5. The models proposed here cover multiple pollutants and have high spatial resolution (~0.1km) and are therefore well suited to explore differences in exposure among regions, cities, and neighborhoods. We will employ new satellite-based products to capture regional variability in concentrations in a hybrid LUR approach. Our real-time models will develop a framework to extract publicly available data (e.g., monitor network, meteorology) as well as novel traffic emissions models to estimate concentrations in real time.

Expected Results:

Results from our annual-average LUR models will be used for exposure assessment in the epidemiological analyses (Project 5). Our LURs will have excellent spatial precision to explore the health effects of exposures to pollutant mixtures and to evaluate differences in air quality-related health effects across varying geographic scales. Our real-time LUR models will develop methods for estimating concentrations with high spatiotemporal resolution and test the feasibility of releasing those results with minimal lag time. Our results will be archived in a publicly available database and will inform Project 2 regarding placement of additional measurements.

Publications and Presentations:

Publications have been submitted on this subproject: View all 1 publications for this subprojectView all 21 publications for this center

Journal Articles:

Journal Articles have been submitted on this subproject: View all 1 journal articles for this subprojectView all 9 journal articles for this center

Supplemental Keywords:

remote-sensing, land use patterns, urban air quality;

Progress and Final Reports:

2016 Progress Report


Main Center Abstract and Reports:

R835873    Center for Air, Climate, and Energy Solutions

Subprojects under this Center: (EPA does not fund or establish subprojects; EPA awards and manages the overall grant for this center).
R835873C001 Mechanistic Air Quality Impact Models for Assessment of Multiple Pollutants at High Spatial Resolution
R835873C002 Air Quality Observatory
R835873C003 Next Generation LUR Models: Development of Nationwide Modeling Tools for Exposure Assessment and Epidemiology
R835873C004 Air Pollutant Control Strategies in a Changing World
R835873C005 Health Effects of Air Pollution and Mitigation Scenarios