Project 5: Projecting and Quantifying Future Changes in Socioeconomic Drivers of Air Pollution and its Health-Related Impacts

EPA Grant Number: R835872C005
Subproject: this is subproject number 005 , established and managed by the Center Director under grant R835872
(EPA does not fund or establish subprojects; EPA awards and manages the overall grant for this center).

Center: Regional Air Pollution Mixtures
Center Director: Koutrakis, Petros
Title: Project 5: Projecting and Quantifying Future Changes in Socioeconomic Drivers of Air Pollution and its Health-Related Impacts
Investigators: Selin, Noelle Eckley , Barrett, Steven , Reilly, John , Solomon, Susan
Institution: Harvard University , Massachusetts Institute of Technology
EPA Project Officer: Ilacqua, Vito
Project Period: May 1, 2016 through April 30, 2021
RFA: Air, Climate And Energy (ACE) Centers: Science Supporting Solutions (2014) RFA Text |  Recipients Lists
Research Category: Air , Climate Change , Urban Air Toxics , Mercury , Air Quality and Air Toxics , Airborne Particulate Matter Health Effects , Air Toxics , Particulate Matter

Objective:

In Project 5, we will investigate future changes in regional air pollution characteristics as a result of technological and societal changes. We will quantify the future implications of technologies and efficiency improvements in the energy and transportation sectors on regional differences in air pollution impacts. As a case study, we will assess the environmental and health benefits of choices in state and regional carbon policy implementation relevant to recently proposed carbon dioxide emission reductions from the energy sector. We will examine the health-related benefits of reducing concentrations of ozone and particulate matter, as well as changing regional air pollution mixtures including air toxics.

Approach:

We will use an integrated assessment model framework linking economic models with details on advanced technologies for transportation and energy supply that consistently simulates economic and population growth, air quality, and health impacts, including the economic implications of air pollution health impacts. We will use matrices developed using air pollution sensitivities to source- and region-based emissions from the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model to create a computationally efficient integrated framework, which we will use to conduct quantitative uncertainty analysis of modifiable and other factors and their influence on future regional-scale air quality and its health and economic impacts. We will analyze case studies of future technology scenarios for carbon reduction strategies in the energy and transportation sector using economic model simulations, and examine the influence of global change scenarios by driving our integrated assessment framework with future meteorology.

Expected Results:

This project will result in a computationally efficient analysis tool that can be used to assess the relative importance of global change, technologies, and policies to air quality, including their costs and benefits, and taking into account uncertainties. We will identify the factors and modifiable strategies with the most influence on air pollution health impacts, quantifying associated uncertainty ranges. Our approach allows for a consistent estimate of the costs and co-benefits of regional carbon reduction strategies in combination with other air pollution reduction initiatives, including controls on air toxics.

Supplemental Keywords:

PM2.5, complex step method, greenhouse gas, computable general equilibrium, mercury, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, PAHs


Main Center Abstract and Reports:

R835872    Regional Air Pollution Mixtures

Subprojects under this Center: (EPA does not fund or establish subprojects; EPA awards and manages the overall grant for this center).
R835872C001 Project 1: Regional Air Pollution Mixtures: The Past and Future Impacts of Emission Controls and Climate Change on Air Quality and Health
R835872C002 Project 2: Air Pollutant Mixtures in Eastern Massachusetts: Spatial Multi-resolution Analysis of Trends, Effects of Modifiable Factors, Climate and Particle-induced Mortality
R835872C003 Project 3: Causal Estimates of Effects of Regional and National Pollution Mixtures on Health: Providing Tools for Policy Makers
R835872C004 A Causal Inference Framework to Support Policy Decisions by Evaluating the Effectiveness of Past Air Pollution Control Strategies for the Entire United States
R835872C005 Project 5: Projecting and Quantifying Future Changes in Socioeconomic Drivers of Air Pollution and its Health-Related Impacts