Project 1: Regional Air Pollution Mixtures: The Past and Future Impacts of Emission Controls and Climate Change on Air Quality and Health

EPA Grant Number: R835872C001
Subproject: this is subproject number 001 , established and managed by the Center Director under grant R835872
(EPA does not fund or establish subprojects; EPA awards and manages the overall grant for this center).

Center: Regional Air Pollution Mixtures
Center Director: Koutrakis, Petros
Title: Project 1: Regional Air Pollution Mixtures: The Past and Future Impacts of Emission Controls and Climate Change on Air Quality and Health
Investigators: Koutrakis, Petros , Coull, Brent , Jacob, Daniel J. , Mickley, Loretta J. , Schwartz, Joel
Institution: Harvard University
EPA Project Officer: Ilacqua, Vito
Project Period: December 1, 2015 through November 30, 2020
RFA: Air, Climate And Energy (ACE) Centers: Science Supporting Solutions (2014) RFA Text |  Recipients Lists
Research Category: Air , Climate Change , Global Climate Change , Particulate Matter , Air Quality and Air Toxics

Objective:

To characterize historical and projected regional air pollution mixtures, emissions, and trends at a high spatial resolution. Project 1 addresses EPA ACE Center Research Questions 1 and 2, which focus on new approaches to characterize temporal and spatial patterns of pollutant mixtures within and across US regions and investigation of their relation to source emissions, climate, and modifiable factors. In addition, this project addresses Research Question 3 because it investigates the impact of future climate on regional air pollution.

Approach:

Objective 1: Compile comprehensive air pollution, weather, emissions, and GIS datasets for the entire continental US for the period 2000-2015. We will estimate gas and particle concentrations at a high spatial resolution by assimilating data from monitoring networks (compiled in collaboration with the Air Pollution Core), satellite platforms, air pollution models, and spatiotemporal statistical models; Objective 2: Develop and make publically available a national PM2.5 emission inventory database of high spatial resolution (1 km) for 2000-2015. This will be achieved through the application of a novel methodology we developed that predicts point and area source emissions using aerosol optical thickness measured by satellite remote sensors; Objective 3: Characterize spatial and temporal trends of pollutant mixtures. We will perform cluster analysis to group areas that exhibit distinct pollutant profiles or mixtures, referred to as “Air Pollution Regions,” then analyze their spatial patterns and temporal trends to investigate the impact of regulations, climate change, and modifiable factors on regional mixtures; and Objective 4: Forecast the impact of regional climate change on air quality for 2016-2040 using an ensemble of climate models. We will project the potential impact of climate change on regional pollutant mixtures and predict future regional air quality assuming no changes in anthropogenic emissions.

Expected Results:

We will predict air quality mixtures across the US over a relatively long period (2000-2015) using the chemical transport model GEOS-Chem. To our knowledge, this will be the first simulation of air quality of this scale. We will examine the impacts of changes in emissions and climate on US air quality over a period of significant emission reductions, weather changes, and economy fluctuations. We will predict PM2.5  emissions data across the US. Our work will result in a unique database with a high spatial resolution, which will be made available to  researchers,  regulatory  agencies,  and  those  seeking  to  understand  the  impact  of  local emissions sources on their communities. Finally, we will address an important policy issue: the potential effects of 2015-2040 climate change on regional air quality. Overall, we expect to develop new tools and characterize the spatial and temporal patterns of air pollutant mixtures in US, generating information that will benefit researchers, policy makers, and communities.

Publications and Presentations:

Publications have been submitted on this subproject: View all 4 publications for this subprojectView all 38 publications for this center

Journal Articles:

Journal Articles have been submitted on this subproject: View all 4 journal articles for this subprojectView all 29 journal articles for this center

Supplemental Keywords:

particles, pollutant mixtures, pollution trends, regional pollution, public policy, data fusion;

Progress and Final Reports:

2016 Progress Report


Main Center Abstract and Reports:

R835872    Regional Air Pollution Mixtures

Subprojects under this Center: (EPA does not fund or establish subprojects; EPA awards and manages the overall grant for this center).
R835872C001 Project 1: Regional Air Pollution Mixtures: The Past and Future Impacts of Emission Controls and Climate Change on Air Quality and Health
R835872C002 Project 2: Air Pollutant Mixtures in Eastern Massachusetts: Spatial Multi-resolution Analysis of Trends, Effects of Modifiable Factors, Climate and Particle-induced Mortality
R835872C003 Project 3: Causal Estimates of Effects of Regional and National Pollution Mixtures on Health: Providing Tools for Policy Makers
R835872C004 A Causal Inference Framework to Support Policy Decisions by Evaluating the Effectiveness of Past Air Pollution Control Strategies for the Entire United States
R835872C005 Project 5: Projecting and Quantifying Future Changes in Socioeconomic Drivers of Air Pollution and its Health-Related Impacts