Regional Air Pollution Mixtures: The past and future impacts of emissions controls and climate change on air quality and health

EPA Grant Number: R835872
Center: Regional Air Pollution Mixtures
Center Director: Koutrakis, Petros
Title: Regional Air Pollution Mixtures: The past and future impacts of emissions controls and climate change on air quality and health
Investigators: Koutrakis, Petros , Coull, Brent , Dominici, Francesca , Schwartz, Joel , Selin, Noelle Eckley
Institution: Harvard University , Massachusetts Institute of Technology
EPA Project Officer: Ilacqua, Vito
Project Period: December 1, 2015 through November 30, 2020
Project Amount: $10,000,000
RFA: Air, Climate And Energy (ACE) Centers: Science Supporting Solutions (2014) RFA Text |  Recipients Lists
Research Category: Air , Health , Climate Change , Integrated Assessment of the Consequences of Climate Change , Air Quality and Air Toxics , Social Science , Airborne Particulate Matter Health Effects , Air Toxics , Health Effects

Objective:

The overarching goal of this Center is to generate new scientific knowledge on past and future US in air quality and the associated health impacts. Specifically, we will investigate the sources, composition, trends and effects of regional air pollutant mixtures across the US over a relatively long chronological period spanning past and future years (2000-2040), and will examine the influence of climate, socioeconomic factors, policy decisions, and control strategies on air pollution, human health and economic outcomes.

Approach:

Project 1: We will investigate pollutant mixtures across the US using historic (2000-2015) and projected (2016-2040) data and compile data from networks, satellites, and the GEOS-Chem model. Using cluster analysis, we will group regions and subsequently, we will examine the impacts of modifiable factors, and changes in emissions and climate on mixtures by region. Finally, we will project the potential impact of climate change on regional air pollution.

Project 2: We will investigate pollutant mixtures in Massachusetts. We will use spatiotemporal models for PM2.5 mass and species to identify modifiable factors related to: transportation, energy, urbanization etc., and evaluate several community control programs. Finally, we will use a novel multi-resolution analysis to decompose PM2.5 into regional, subregional, and locally-generated components and assess their health effects.

Project 3: We will use unique datasets and novel (for air pollution studies) causal inference methods to examine the causal impact on mortality of acute and chronic changes in pollution and pollution trends by region, by mixture, and by modifiable factors. We will identify the causal effects of temperature changes on these impacts, and determine whether they persist at levels below the NAAQS.

Project 4: We will analyze data on emissions control technologies for 4,164 US power plants units for the 1995-2012, and investigate the causal impacts of specific control strategies on emissions and population exposure and health. Finally, we will compare the effectiveness of past and future regulatory strategies impacting power plants.

Project 5: We will project and quantify future changes in socioeconomic drivers of air pollution and its health-related impact. We will develop methods for assessing the relative importance of global change, technologies, and policies to air quality, relative to other uncertainties. We will quantify the future implications of modifiable factors such as technologies and efficiency improvements in the energy and transportation sectors on regional air pollution impacts. Finally, we will characterize state- and regional-level carbon policy implementation measures with respect to their health co-benefits.

Expected Results:

Our Center will address all four research questions of the EPA solicitation to establish ACE Centers. It will: 1) investigate past and projected regional and sub-regional air pollutant mixtures and examine their characteristics and health effects and their relationship to emissions, climate, and modifiable factors; 2) project the potential impact of climate change on regional mixtures; 3) assess the effectiveness of past and future regulatory strategies, and; 4) project and quantify future changes in socioeconomic drivers of air pollution and its healthrelated impact and characterize carbon policy measures with respect to their air co-benefits.


Journal Articles: 29 Displayed | Download in RIS Format

Other center views: All 38 publications 29 publications in selected types All 29 journal articles
Type Citation Sub Project Document Sources
Journal Article Di Q, Rowland S, Koutrakis P, Schwartz J. (2017) A hybrid model for spatially and temporally resolved ozone exposures in the continental United States. J Air and Waste Management Association, 67.1:39-52. R835872C003 (2016)
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Journal Article Schwartz J, Bind MA, Koutrakis P. (2017) Estimating causal effects of local air pollution on daily deaths:effect of low levels. Environ Health Perspect 125:23–29; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP232. R835872C003 (2016)
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Journal Article Makar, M., Antonelli, J., Di, Q., Cutler, D., Schwartz, J., and Dominici, F. (Accepted 2017). Estimating the Causal Effect of Low Levels of Fine Particulate Matter on Hospitalization Epidemiology DOI:10.1097/EDE.0000000000000690, 1-29. R835872 (2016)
R835872C005 (2016)
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Journal Article Zanobetti, A., Coull, B., Kloog, I., Sparrow, D., Vokonas, P., Gold, D.R., and Schwartz, J. (2017). Fine-Scale Spatial and Temporal Variaton in Temperature and Arrhythmia Episodes in the VA Normative Aging Study. Journal of the Air and Waste Management Association 67, 96-104. R835872 (2016)
R834798 (Final)
R834798C002 (Final)
R834798C004 (Final)
R834798C005 (Final)
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Journal Article MacNaughton, P., Eitland, E., Kloog, I., Schwartz, J., and Allen, J. (2017). Impact of Particulate Matter Exposure and Surrounding “Greenness” on Chronic Absenteeism in Massachusetts Public Schools. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 14, 207. R835872 (2016)
R834798 (Final)
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Journal Article Masri, S., Gariepy, J., Coull, B., and Koutrakis, P. (2016). A Novel Calibration Approach Using Satellite and Visibility Observations to Estimate PM2.5 Exposures in Southwest Asia and Afghanistan. Journal of the Air and Waste Management Association 67, 86-95. R835872 (2016)
R834798 (Final)
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Journal Article Masri, S., Garshick, E., Hart, J., Bouhamra, W., and Koutrakis, P. (2017). Use of Visual Range Measurements to Predict PM2.5 Exposures in Southwest Asia and Afghanistan. Journal of the Air and Waste Management Association 67, 75-85. R835872 (2016)
R834798 (Final)
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Journal Article Braun, D., Gorfine, M., Parmigiani, G., Arvold, N.D., Dominici, F., and Zigler, C. (2017). Propensity Scores with Misclassied Treatment Assignment:a Likelihood-Based Adjustment. Biostatistics doi:10.1093/biostatistics/dbraun_Biostat_Nov302016, 1-29. R835872 (2016)
R835872C004 (2016)
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Journal Article Phipatanakul, W., Kourakis, P., Coull, B., Kang, C.-M., Wolfson, J.M., Ferguson, S., Petty, C.R., Samnaliev, M., Cunningham, A., Sheehan, W.J., Gaffin, J.M., Baxi, S.N., Lai, P.S., Permaul, P., Liang, L., Thorne, P.S., Adamkiewicz, G., Brennan, K.J., Baccarelli, A., and Gold, D.R. (2017). The School Inner-City Asthma Intervention Study:Design, Rationale, Methods, and Lessons Learned. Contemporary Clinical Trials 60, 14-23. R835872 (2016)
R834798 (Final)
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Journal Article Dai, L., Mehta, A., Mordukhovich, I., Just, A.C., Shen, J., Hou, L., Koutrakis, P., Sparrow, D., Vokonas, P.S., Baccarelli, A.A., and Schwartz, J.D. (2017). Differential DNA Methylation and PM2.5 Species in a 450K Epigenome-wide Association Study. Epigenetics 12, 139-148. R835872 (2016)
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Journal Article Shen, l., Mickley, L.J., and Murray, L.T. (2017). Influence of 2000-2050 Climate Change on Particulate Matter in the United States:Results from a New Statistical Model. Atmospherical Chemistry and Physics 17, 4355-4367. R835872 (2016)
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Journal Article Di, Q., Rowland, S., Koutrakis, P., and Schwartz, J. (2017). A Hybrid Model for Spatially and Temporally Resolved Ozone Exposures in the Continental United States. Journal of the Air and Waste Management Association 1, 39-52. R835872 (2016)
not available
Journal Article Antonelli, J., Schwartz, J., Kloog, I., & Coull, B. A. (2017). Spatial multiresolution analysis of the effect of PM2.5 on birth weights. The Annals of Applied Statistics, 11(2), 792-807. R835872C002 (2016)
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Journal Article Wang, Y., Shi, L.H., Lee, M., Liu, P.F., Di, Q., Zanobetti, A., and Schwartz, J. (2017). Long-term Exposure to PM2.5 and Mortality Among Older Adults in the Southeastern US. Epidemiology 28, 207-214. R835872 (2016)
R835872C003 (2016)
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Journal Article Di, Q., Wang, Y., Zanobetti, A., Wang, Y., Kourakis, P., Choirat, C., Dominici, F., and Schwartz, J.D. (2017). Air Pollution and Mortality in the Medicare Population. New England Journal of Medicine 376, 2513-2522. R835872 (2016)
R834798C002 (Final)
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Journal Article Colicino, E., Wilson, A., Frisardi, M.C., Prada, D., Power, M.C., Hoxha, M., Doni, L., Spiro, A.I., Vokonas, P.S., Weisskopf, M.G., Schwartz, J., and Baccarelli, A. (2017). Telomere Length, Long-Term Black Carbon Exposure, and Cognitive Function in a Cohort of Older Men:The VA Normative Aging Study. Environmental Health Perspectives 125, 76-81. R835872 (2016)
R834798 (Final)
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Journal Article Antonelli, J., Zigler, C., and Dominici, F. (2017). Guided Bayesian Imputation to Adjust for Confounding when Combining Heterogeneous Data Sources in Comparative Effectiveness Research. Biostatistics 1–16 doi:10.1093/biostatistics/kxx003, 1-16. R835872 (2016)
R835872C005 (2016)
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Journal Article Shen, L., and Mickley, L.J. (2017). Seasonal Prediction of US Summertiem Ozone using Statistical Analysis of Large Scale Climate Patterns. Proceedings of the National Academies of Science 114, 2491-2497. R835872 (2016)
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Journal Article Tang C, Coull B, Schwartz J, Lyapustin A, Di Q, Koutrakis P (2016) Trends and Spatial Patterns of Fine Resolution AOD-Derived PM2.5 Emissions in the Northeast United States from 2002 to 2013. Journal of the Air Waste & Management Association. In press. http://dx.doi.org.ezp-prod1.hul.harvard.edu/10.1080/10962247.2016.1218393. R835872C001 (2016)
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Journal Article Di Q, Kloog I, Koutrakis P, Lyapustin A, Wang Y, Schwartz J (2016) Assessing PM2.5 exposures with high spatiotemporal resolution across the continental United States. Environmental Science & Technology, 50(9):4712-4721. R835872C001 (2016)
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Journal Article Bobb, J.F., Ho, K.K.L., Yeh, R.W., Harrington, L., Zai, A., Liao, K.P., and Dominici, F. (2017). Time-Course of Cause-Specific Hospital Admissions During Snowstorms:An Analysis of Electronic Medical Records From Major Hospitals in Boston, Massachusetts. American Journal of Epidemiology 185, 283-294. R835872 (2016)
R835872C005 (2016)
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Journal Article Tang, C.H., Coull, B.A., Schwartz, J., Lyapustin, A., Di, Q., and Koutrakis, P. (2017). Developing Particle Emission Inventories Using Remote Sensing (PEIRS). Journal of the Air and Waste Management Association http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10962247.2016.1214630, 53-63. R835872 (2016)
R834798 (Final)
not available
Journal Article Tang, C.H., Kourakis, P., Schwartz, J., Coull, B.A., and Di, Q. (2017). Trends and Spatial Patterns of Fine Resolution AOD-Derived PM2.5 Emissions in Northeast United States from 2002 to 2013. Journal of the Air and Waste Management Association http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10962247.2016.1218393, 64-74. R835872 (2016)
R834798 (Final)
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Journal Article Requia, W.J., Adams, M.D., Afrain, A., Koutrakis, P., and Ferguson, M. (2017). Carbon Dioxide Emissions of Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles:A Life-cycle Analysis in Eight Canadian Cities. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 78, 1390-1396. R835872 (2016)
R835872C005 (2016)
R834798 (Final)
not available
Journal Article Requia, W.J., Roig, H.L., Koutrakis, P., and Adams, M.D. (2017). Modeling Spatial Patterns of Traffic Emissions across 5570 Municipal Districts in Brazil. Journal of Cleaner Production 148, 845-853. R835872 (2016)
R834798 (Final)
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Journal Article Requia, W.J., Dalumpines, R., Adams, M.D., Arain, A., Ferguson, M., and Koutrakis, P. (2017). Modeling Spatial Patterns of Link-based PM2.5 Emissions and Subsequent Human Exposure in a Large Canadian Metropolitan Area. Atmospheric Environment 158, 172-180. R835872 (2016)
R834798 (Final)
not available
Journal Article Di Q, Rowland S, Koutrakis P, Schwartz J (2017) A hybrid model for spatially and temporally resolved ozone exposures in the continental United States. Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association, 67(1):39-52. R835872C001 (2016)
not available
Journal Article Tang C, Coull B, Schwartz J, Lyapustin A, Di Q, Koutrakis P (2016) Developing Particle Emission Inventories Using Remote Sensing (PEIRS). Journal of the Air Waste & Management Association. In press. http://dx.doi.org.ezp-prod1.hul.harvard.edu/10.1080/10962247.2016.1214630. R835872C001 (2016)
not available
Journal Article Dorans, K.S., Wilker, E.H., Li, W., Rice, M.B., Ljungman, P.L., Schwartz, J., Coull, B.A., Kloog, I., Koutrakis, P., D'Agostino, R.B., Massari, J.M., Hoffmann, U., O'Donnell, J., and Mittleman, M.A. (2016). Residential Proximity to Major Roads, Exposure to Fine Particulate Matter, and Coronary Artery Calcium. The Framingham Study. Arterioscler Thromb Vasc Biol DOI:10.1161/ATVBAHA.116.307141, 1679-1685. R835872 (2016)
R834798 (Final)
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Supplemental Keywords:

risk analysis, casual inference, socioeconomic changes, emission control policies, emission inventories;

Progress and Final Reports:

2016 Progress Report

Subprojects under this Center: (EPA does not fund or establish subprojects; EPA awards and manages the overall grant for this center).
R835872C001 Project 1: Regional Air Pollution Mixtures: The Past and Future Impacts of Emission Controls and Climate Change on Air Quality and Health
R835872C002 Project 2: Air Pollutant Mixtures in Eastern Massachusetts: Spatial Multi-resolution Analysis of Trends, Effects of Modifiable Factors, Climate and Particle-induced Mortality
R835872C003 Project 3: Causal Estimates of Effects of Regional and National Pollution Mixtures on Health: Providing Tools for Policy Makers
R835872C004 A Causal Inference Framework to Support Policy Decisions by Evaluating the Effectiveness of Past Air Pollution Control Strategies for the Entire United States
R835872C005 Project 5: Projecting and Quantifying Future Changes in Socioeconomic Drivers of Air Pollution and its Health-Related Impacts