2016 Progress Report: Optimal Energy Portfolios to Sustain Economic Advantage, Achieve GHG Targets, and Minimize PM2.5.EPA Grant Number: R835879
Title: Optimal Energy Portfolios to Sustain Economic Advantage, Achieve GHG Targets, and Minimize PM2.5.
Investigators: Kleeman, Michael J. , Chen, Shu-Hua , Muller, Nicholas , Ogden, Joan , Yeh, Sonia
Institution: University of California - Davis , Middlebury College
EPA Project Officer: Keating, Terry
Project Period: April 1, 2016 through March 31, 2019
Project Period Covered by this Report: April 1, 2016 through March 31,2017
Project Amount: $790,000
RFA: Particulate Matter and Related Pollutants in a Changing World (2014) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Air , Climate Change
This research will identify major sources and composition of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and related pollutants in the year 2050 resulting from different energy portfolios that optimize economic outcomes under different assumptions about available technology and climate change. The key hypothesis to be tested in the research project is that future PM2.5 sources, composition, chemical reactions and spatial distributions will drastically change as a function of future energy portfolio and technology adoption. An ensemble of PM2.5 and ozone exposure scenarios will be produced using results from ongoing research combined with multiple models for energy portfolio optimization, criteria pollutant emissions, air quality downscaling and health effects analysis. Two state-of-the-science energy models will serve as the foundation of this analysis, along with coupled meteorological and air quality models applied at scales ranging from statewide (hundreds of km) to neighborhood (250 m). Interactions between smart growth and population exposure also will be considered in rapidly growing areas. The outcomes from the proposed research include economically optimized energy portfolios for California that meet the goal of an 80 percent reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by the year 2050, the PM2.5 and ozone outcomes associated with those portfolios, and the air pollution health costs associated with those energy portfolios for different socioeconomic segments of society.
Meteorological fields generated for the years 2045-2054 have been downscaled to 4km resolution over California to serve as inputs for air quality model calculations. A CA-TIMES Business as Usual (BAU) scenario and Greenhouse Gas Mitigation (GHG-Step) scenario have been analyzed and the corresponding changes to criteria pollutant emissions for California have been calculated. Air quality simulations have been conducted for a representative year in the 2045-2054 time frame using both the BAU and GHG-Step emissions inventories as inputs. The projected health impact due to PM and ozone exposure has been calculated under the BAU and GHG-Step scenarios. The economic costs of air pollution have been calculated using the Value of a Statistical Life (VSL) under the BAU and GHG-Step scenarios.
Further energy scenarios from CA-TIMES will be translated to criteria pollutant emissions. Further meteorological fields will be derived from global models. High-resolution simulations will be conducted over dense urban areas.