Grantee Research Project Results
2019 Progress Report: Ensemble Analysis of Global Change Projections for US Air Quality Using a Novel Combination of Lagrangian and Gridded Air Quality Models
EPA Grant Number: R835874Title: Ensemble Analysis of Global Change Projections for US Air Quality Using a Novel Combination of Lagrangian and Gridded Air Quality Models
Investigators: Lee, Yunha , Lamb, Brian , Walden, Von P. , Guenther, Alex , Avise, Jeremy C. , Zaveri, Rahul A. , Fast, Jerome D.
Current Investigators: Lamb, Brian , Lee, Yunha , Walden, Von P. , Vaughan, Joseph , Guenther, Alex , Avise, Jeremy C. , Zaveri, Rahul A. , Fast, Jerome D.
Institution: Washington State University , Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Current Institution: Washington State University , University of California - Irvine , California Air Resources Board , Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
EPA Project Officer: Keating, Terry
Project Period: January 1, 2016 through December 31, 2018 (Extended to December 31, 2020)
Project Period Covered by this Report: January 1, 2019 through December 31,2019
Project Amount: $789,547
RFA: Particulate Matter and Related Pollutants in a Changing World (2014) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Air , Climate Change
Objective:
Our overall goal is to improve our understanding of the effects of global change on future PM levels in the western US. Our specific objectives are the below.
- Develop a novel application of Lagrangian air quality modeling using an ensemble of high resolution and bias corrected downscaled climate data based on the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) method to provide comprehensive descriptions of PM changes due to meteorological changes.
- Employ this method to examine the effects of the full range of climate projections upon PM levels associated with representative air quality issues in the western US, including wintertime stagnation events, summertime urban to rural transport cases, and wildfire impacts on rural and urban populations.
- Incorporate changes in US anthropogenic emissions, background concentrations, and land use changes within the ensemble of Lagrangian modeling cases to assess the sensitivity of PM to these factors in the western US.
- Integrate the results from these simulations to present the results in forms suitable to inform effective air quality management in the western US and elsewhere.
Progress Summary:
We have completed the evaluation of a Lagrangian air quality box-scale modeling framework (HYSPLIT-MOSAIC) against 54 EPA AQS (Air Quality System) sites over the Pacific Northwest and the 3-D air quality simulations from the AIRPACT forecast system (Air-quality forecasting for the Pacific Northwest).
We have also completed the application of the HYSPLIT-MOSAIC modeling framework for present-day (2010s) and future (2050s) cases.
We are currently writing a journal articles with these results.
Future Activities:
- Estimate the impact of uncertainty in future climate on air quality associated with biogenic emissions, using a MEGAN biogenic emission model and MACA ensemble meteorology
- Publish two journal articles listed below:
Fan, K.*, V. Walden, J. Vaughan, B. Lamb, A. Guenther, J. Avise,, R. Zaveri,, J. Fast, and Y.H. Lee, “A Lagrangian modeling framework for air quality in a changing climate: Part 1. Present-day simulation evaluation”, Prepared to submit to Atmos. Environ. this fall
Fan, K.*, V. Walden, J. Vaughan, B. Lamb, A. Guenther, J. Avise,, R. Zaveri,, J. Fast, and Y.H. Lee, “A Lagrangian modeling framework for air quality in a changing climate: Part 2. application to future air quality”, will submit to Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss. this fall
Journal Articles:
No journal articles submitted with this report: View all 13 publications for this projectSupplemental Keywords:
Air Quality, Climate Change, Lagrangian air quality modelingRelevant Websites:
The webpage describing the project is under development.
Progress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.