2012 Progress Report: Integrating Future Climate Change and Riparian Land-Use to Forecast the Effects of Stream Warming on Species Invasions and Their Impacts on Native Salmonids

EPA Grant Number: R833834
Title: Integrating Future Climate Change and Riparian Land-Use to Forecast the Effects of Stream Warming on Species Invasions and Their Impacts on Native Salmonids
Investigators: Olden, Julian D. , Torgersen, Christian E. , Lawler, Joshua J. , Beechie, Timothy
Current Investigators: Olden, Julian D. , Torgersen, Christian E. , Lawler, Joshua J.
Institution: University of Washington , National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Current Institution: University of Washington , Northwest Fisheries Science Center
EPA Project Officer: Packard, Benjamin H
Project Period: July 1, 2008 through June 30, 2012 (Extended to June 30, 2013)
Project Period Covered by this Report: July 1, 2011 through June 30,2012
Project Amount: $587,209
RFA: Ecological Impacts from the Interactions of Climate Change, Land Use Change and Invasive Species: A Joint Research Solicitation - EPA, USDA (2007) RFA Text |  Recipients Lists
Research Category: Global Climate Change , Aquatic Ecosystems , Ecosystems , Climate Change

Objective:

Climate change, increasing agricultural and urban land-use, and invasive species threaten the functioning of freshwater ecosystems in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. Resource managers, scientists and policy makers are becoming increasingly cognizant that the future will witness simultaneous changes in these factors, yet we still lack the science and decision-support tools required to develop management strategies that are robust to future environmental change. Our project seeks to develop an analytical framework for linking climate change, riparian land-use, stream thermodynamics, and species invasions for the management and conservation of freshwater ecosystems. We demonstrate this framework for the John Day River, Oregon, where human-induced stream warming is promoting the range expansion of invasive smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu) and northern pike minnow (Ptychocheilus oregonensis) into formerly uninhabitable reaches that contain critical migration, spawning, and rearing habitat for endangered Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha). Our proposal has three objectives. First, we will characterize and develop predictive models that forecast spatiotemporal patterns of riverine thermal regimes in response to future climate change and riparian land-use. Second, we will forecast species-specific responses (range contractions and invasions) to projected future thermal regimes. Third, we will evaluate alternative scenarios of climate change to identify critical areas for riparian habitat restoration and protection to mediate future climate-induced warming of streams and species invasions.

Progress Summary:

Smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu) have been widely introduced to fresh waters throughout the world to promote recreational fishing opportunities. In the Pacific Northwest (USA), upstream range expansions of predatory bass, especially into subyearling salmon rearing grounds, is of increasing conservation concern, yet has received little scientific inquiry. Understanding the limitations to bass upstream colonization, the habitat characteristics that influence bass distribution, and the timing and extent of bass and salmon overlap is needed to develop management strategies that mitigate potential ecological impacts of bass. We employed a spatially continuous sampling design to determine the extent of bass and subyearling Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) sympatry in the North Fork John Day River (NFJDR), a free-flowing river system in the Columbia River Basin that contains an upstream expanding population of non-native bass. Extensive (i.e., 53 km) surveys were conducted over 2 years and during an early and late summer period of each year, because these seasons provide a strong contrast in the river’s water temperature and flow condition. Classification and regression trees were applied to determine the primary habitat correlates of bass abundance at reach and channel unit scales. Our study revealed that bass seasonally occupy up to 22% of salmon rearing habitat in the upper NFJDR the length of the mainstem NFJDR where subyearling Chinook salmon occur, and their primary period of sympatry with subyearling Chinook salmon between these species was in the early summer and not during peak water temperatures in late summer. Where these species co-occurred, bass occupied 60-76% of channel units used by subyearling Chinook salmon in the early summer and 28-46% of the channel units they occupied in the late summer. Because these rearing salmon were well below the gape limitation of bass, this overlap could result in either direct predation or sublethal effects of bass on subyearling Chinook salmon. The upstream extent of bass increased 10 to 23 km (2009 and 2010, respectively) as stream temperatures seasonally warmed, but subyearling Chinook salmon were also found farther upstream during this time. Our multi-scale analysis suggests that bass were selecting habitat based on antecedent thermal history at a broad scale, and if satisfactory temperature conditions were met, mesoscale habitat features (i.e., channel unit type and depth) played an additional role in determining bass abundance. The upstream extent of bass in the late summer corresponded to a high-gradient geomorphic discontinuity in the NFJDR, which likely hindered further upstream movements of bass. The habitat determinants and upstream extent of bass were largely consistent across years, despite marked differences in the magnitude and timing of spring peak flows prior to bass spawning. The overriding influence of water temperature on smallmouth bass distribution suggests that managers may be able limit future upstream range expansions of bass into salmon rearing habitat by concentrating on restoration activities (e.g., protection of intact riparian cover) that mitigate climate or land-use related stream warming. These management activities could be prioritized to capitalize on survival bottlenecks in the life-history of bass and spatially focused on landscape knick points such as high-gradient discontinuities to discourage further upstream movements of bass.

Future Activities:

Project future distributions of smallmouth bass and subyearing Chinook salmon under scenarios of climate change.


Journal Articles on this Report : 13 Displayed | Download in RIS Format

Other project views: All 37 publications 27 publications in selected types All 27 journal articles
Type Citation Project Document Sources
Journal Article Carey MP, Sanderson BL, Friesen TA, Barnas KA, Olden JD. Smallmouth bass in the Pacific Northwest:a threat to native species; a benefit for anglers. Reviews in Fisheries Science 2011;19(3):305-315. R833834 (2012)
R833834 (Final)
  • Full-text: University of Washington-Full Text PDF
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  • Abstract: Taylor & Francis-Abstract
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  • Journal Article Carey MP, Sanderson BL, Barnas KA, Olden JD. Native invaders--challenges for science, management, policy, and society. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 2012;10(7):373-381. R833834 (2012)
    R833834 (Final)
  • Full-text: University of Washington-Full Text PDF
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  • Abstract: ESA-Abstract
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  • Journal Article Cucherousset J, Olden JD. Ecological impacts of nonnative freshwater fishes. Fisheries 2011;36(5):215-230. R833834 (2012)
    R833834 (Final)
  • Full-text: Taylor & Francis-Full Text HTML
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  • Abstract: Taylor & Francis-Abstract
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  • Other: Taylor & Francis-Full Text PDF
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  • Journal Article Eros T, Olden JD, Schick RS, Schmera D, Fortin M-J. Characterizing connectivity relationships in freshwaters using patch-based graphs. Landscape Ecology 2012;27(2):303-317. R833834 (2012)
    R833834 (Final)
  • Full-text: University of Toronto-Full Text PDF
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  • Abstract: Springer Link-Abstract
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  • Other: University of Washington-Full Text PDF
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  • Journal Article Gao Y, Vogel RM, Kroll CN, Poff NL, Olden JD. Development of representative indicators of hydrologic alteration. Journal of Hydrology 2009;374(1-2):136-147. R833834 (2012)
    R833834 (Final)
    X3832386 (Final)
  • Full-text: Tufts University-Full Text PDF
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  • Abstract: Science Direct-Abstract
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  • Other: Science Direct-Full Text PDF
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  • Journal Article Kuehne LM, Olden JD. Prey naivety in the behavioural responses of juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) to an invasive predator. Freshwater Biology 2012;57(6):1126-1137. R833834 (2012)
    R833834 (Final)
  • Full-text: Research Gate-Full Text PDF
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  • Abstract: Wiley Online-Abstract
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  • Journal Article Kuehne LM, Olden JD, Duda JJ. Costs of living for juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in an increasingly warming and invaded world. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 2012;69(10):1621-1630. R833834 (2011)
    R833834 (2012)
    R833834 (Final)
  • Full-text: University of Washington-Full Text PDF
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  • Abstract: NRC Research Press-Abstract
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  • Journal Article Lawrence DJ, Olden JD, Torgersen CE. Spatiotemporal patterns and habitat associations of smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu) invading salmon-rearing habitat. Freshwater Biology 2012;57(9):1929-1946. R833834 (2012)
    R833834 (Final)
  • Full-text: University of Washington-Full Text PDF
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  • Abstract: Wiley Online-Abstract
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  • Journal Article Olden JD, Kennard MK, Leprieur F, Tedesco PA, Winemiller KO, Garcia-Berthou E. Conservation biogeography of freshwater fishes:recent progress and future challenges. Diversity and Distributions 2010;16(3):496-513. R833834 (2012)
    R833834 (Final)
  • Full-text: University of Washington-Full Text PDF
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  • Abstract: Wiley Online-Abstract
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  • Journal Article Olden JD, Kennard MK, Lawler JJ, Poff NL. Challenges and opportunities in implementing managed relocation for conservation of freshwater species. Conservation Biology 2011;25(1):40-47. R833834 (2012)
    R833834 (Final)
    R833833 (Final)
  • Abstract from PubMed
  • Full-text: Wiley-Full-text PDF
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  • Abstract: Wiley-Abstract & Full-text HTML
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  • Other: University of Washington-Full-text PDF
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  • Journal Article Olden JD, Kennard MJ, Pusey BJ. A framework for hydrologic classification with a review of methodologies and applications in ecohydrology. Ecohydrology 2012;5(4):503-518. R833834 (2012)
    R833834 (Final)
  • Full-text: University of Washington-Full Text PDF
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  • Abstract: Wiley Online-Abstract
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  • Journal Article Ruesch AS, Torgersen CE, Lawler JJ, Olden JD, Peterson EE, Volk CJ, Lawrence DJ. Projected climate-induced habitat loss for salmonids in the John Day River Network, Oregon, U.S.A. Conservation Biology 2012;26(5):873-882. R833834 (2011)
    R833834 (2012)
    R833834 (Final)
  • Full-text: University of Washington-Full Text PDF
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  • Abstract: Wiley-Abstract
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  • Journal Article Wenger SJ, Olden JD. Assessing transferability of ecological models:an underappreciated aspect of statistical validation. Methods in Ecology and Evolution 2012;3(2):260-267. R833834 (2012)
    R833834 (Final)
  • Full-text: University of Washington-Full Text PDF
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  • Abstract: Wiley Online-Abstract
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  • Supplemental Keywords:

    Anthropogenic stress, environmental measurement, meteorology, climatic influence, socioeconomics, ecosystem indicators, climate models, aquatic ecosystems, environmental stress, invasive species, coastal ecosystems, global climate models, land and water resources, ecological models, air quality, atmospheric chemistry, climate variability, global climate change, RFA, Scientific Discipline, Air, Ecosystem Protection/Environmental Exposure & Risk, Aquatic Ecosystems & Estuarine Research, climate change, Air Pollution Effects, Aquatic Ecosystem, Monitoring/Modeling, Environmental Monitoring, Ecological Risk Assessment, Atmosphere, anthropogenic stress, environmental measurement, meteorology, climatic influence, socioeconomics, ecosystem indicators, climate models, aquatic ecosystems, environmental stress, invasive species, coastal ecosystems, global climate models, land and water resources, climate model, ecosystem stress, ecological models, air quality, atmospheric chemistry, climate variability, Global Climate Change

    Relevant Websites:

    School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences | University of Washington Exit

    Progress and Final Reports:

    Original Abstract
  • 2009 Progress Report
  • 2010 Progress Report
  • 2011 Progress Report
  • Final Report