Hydrologic Forecasting for Characterization of Non-linear Response of Freshwater Wetlands to Climatic and Land Use Change in the Susquehanna River BasinEPA Grant Number: R833013
Title: Hydrologic Forecasting for Characterization of Non-linear Response of Freshwater Wetlands to Climatic and Land Use Change in the Susquehanna River Basin
Investigators: Wardrop, Denice Heller , Brooks, Robert P. , Dressler, Kevin , Duffy, Christopher , Easterling, William Ewart , Najjar, Raymond , Ready, Richard C , Shortle, James S.
Institution: Pennsylvania State University
EPA Project Officer: Packard, Benjamin H
Project Period: April 20, 2007 through April 19, 2011
Project Amount: $899,656
RFA: Nonlinear Responses to Global Change in Linked Aquatic and Terrestrial Ecosystems and Effects of Multiple Factors on Terrestrial Ecosystems: A Joint Research Solicitation- EPA, DOE (2005) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Global Climate Change , Ecosystems , Climate Change
To characterize nonlinear responses to global climate change in linked aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems through (1) Selection of a linked terrestrial-aquatic ecosystem that provides critical ecosystem services and ecological functions, (2) Characterization of various global change scenarios, incorporating both climate and land cover, and a method of assessing their effect on the identified ecosystem through the primary forcing factor of hydrology (both alone and in conjunction with other human-associated stressors), (3) Identification of potential nonlinear ecological responses (sensu Scheffer et al., 2002) in the selected ecosystem as a result of these changes, and (4) Estimation of the resultant change in ecosystem services on a watershed and Basin-wide scale in the Susquehanna River Basin.
Our general approach to investigating the response of freshwater wetlands to climatic and land use change is based on tools and products of four previous EPA-STAR grants, and involves the following series of activities:
- Develop scenarios of climate and land cover change, operating on a scale of decades, relevant to the Susquehanna River Basin (SRB).
- Using these scenarios, in conjunction with a coupled surface-ground water model, develop a number of predictive hydrologic scenarios for a collection of 11-digit HUC watersheds representing a range of human-associated land uses in the SRB.
- Characterize the relationships between hydrologic and landcover parameters and ecosystem characteristics and services in wetlands of various types in the SRB, focusing on those with preliminary evidence of non-linearity and/or thresholds.
- Utilize the predicted hydrologic scenarios to forecast changes in ecosystem services across the entire Susquehanna River Basin, clearly identifying where and when non-linearities and/or thresholds in response occur, utilizing a series of unique statistical tools to develop a probability surface.
We will develop a unique analytical method for prediction of climate and land cover change impacts, incorporating the forecasting of hydrologic conditions, which can be used to identify thresholds and non-linearities in the functional performance of freshwater wetlands. Any set of hydrologic/land cover change conditions can then be placed upon the probability surface, allowing the statistical model to be used in a predictive fashion. The method could be applied to a wide variety of aquatic ecosystems for which state changes occur over either a spatial and temporal extent, or both.