Modeling Heat and Air Quality Impacts of Changing Urban Land Uses and ClimateEPA Grant Number: R828733
Title: Modeling Heat and Air Quality Impacts of Changing Urban Land Uses and Climate
Investigators: Kinney, Patrick L. , Soleki, William D. , Rao, S. Trivikrama , Small, Christopher , Avissar, Roni
Current Investigators: Kinney, Patrick L. , Soleki, William D. , Rosenthal, Joyce E. , Lynn, Barry , Hogrefe, Christian , Small, Christopher , Rosenzweig, Cynthia , Werth, David , Cox, Jennifer , Civerolo, Kevin , Knowlton, Kim , Ku, Michael , Goldberg, Richard , Avissar, Roni , Holloway, Tracey
Institution: Columbia University in the City of New York , Rutgers University - New Brunswick , The State University of New York , Montclair State University
Current Institution: Columbia University in the City of New York , Duke University , NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies , New York State Department of Environmental Conservation , The State University of New York , University of Wisconsin Madison
EPA Project Officer: Chung, Serena
Project Period: September 1, 2000 through August 31, 2003 (Extended to March 14, 2006)
Project Amount: $1,496,418
RFA: Assessing the Consequences of Interactions between Human Activities and a Changing Climate (2000) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Air Quality and Air Toxics , Global Climate Change , Climate Change , Air
Heat waves and elevated concentrations of ozone and fine particles represent two significant current public health stressors in the NY metropolitan area. Both of these stressors may be impacted by future changes in the global climate as well as continued expansion of human-dominated land uses in the region. To date, there has been little effort to link climate change and land use/land cover (LU/LC) models in assessments of potential future impacts of heat stress and air quality.
The proposed study will link human dimension and natural sciences models describing the behaviors of these systems to yield improved tools for assessing the future public health impacts of climate change in the context of existing environmental stressors. The model will be applied to the 31 county NY metropolitan east coast (MEC) region. The following questions will be addressed:
- What changes in the frequency and severity of extreme heat events are likely
to occur over the next 50 years due to a range of possible scenarios of LU/LC
and climate change in the MEC region?
- How might the frequency and severity of episodic concentrations of ozone
(O3) and airborne particulate matter smaller than 2.5 mm in diameter (PM2.5)
change over the next 50 years due to a range of possible scenarios of LU/LC
and climate change in the MEC region?
- What is the range of possible human health impacts of these changes in
the MEC region?
- How might projected future human exposures and responses to heat stress and air quality differ as a function of socio-economic status and race/ethnicity across the MEC region?
An integrated model will be developed linking models for LU/LC, global climate change, regional climate change, atmospheric chemistry and pollution transport, and the impacts of heat stress and air quality on public health. Four scenarios of LU/LC change and three independent GCMs will be analyzed. Impacts will be examined during the decades of the 2020's and 2050's.
The research will provide improved tools for integrated assessments of future public health risks due to heat and air quality changes driven by climate change/variability and changes in LU/LC. In addition, the research will lead to a better understanding of the driving forces behind long-term environmental changes, and the role played by socio-economic and demographic factors in the resulting human impacts.