2004 Progress Report: Applying Spatial and Temporal Modeling of Statistical Surveys to Aquatic Resources

EPA Grant Number: R829095
Center: Space-Time Aquatic Resources Modeling and Analysis Program (STARMAP)
Center Director: Urquhart, N. Scott
Title: Applying Spatial and Temporal Modeling of Statistical Surveys to Aquatic Resources
Investigators: Urquhart, N. Scott , Breidt, F. Jay , Davis, Richard A. , Hoeting, Jennifer A. , Iyer, Hariharan K. , Theobald, David M.
Current Investigators: Urquhart, N. Scott , Breidt, F. Jay , Davis, Richard A. , Gitelman, Alix I. , Hoeting, Jennifer A. , Iyer, Hariharan K. , Johnson, Devin S. , Opsomer, Jean , Ritter, Kerry J. , Stevens, Don L. , Theobald, David M.
Institution: Colorado State University , Oregon State University , Southern California Coastal Water Research Project Authority , University of Alaska - Fairbanks
Current Institution: Colorado State University , Iowa State University , Oregon State University , Southern California Coastal Water Research Project Authority , University of Alaska - Fairbanks
EPA Project Officer: Packard, Benjamin H
Project Period: October 1, 2001 through September 30, 2006
Project Period Covered by this Report: October 1, 2003 through September 30, 2004
Project Amount: $2,998,331
RFA: Research Program on Statistical Survey Design and Analysis for Aquatic Resources (2001) RFA Text |  Recipients Lists
Research Category: Water , Ecosystems , Aquatic Ecosystems , Ecological Indicators/Assessment/Restoration , Water and Watersheds

Objective:

The objectives of this research project are to: (1) develop and implement statistical methods for aquatic surveys; (2) communicate results to states and tribes; and (3) train future generations of environmental statisticians. The STARMAP Center funds multiple projects and the progress of each project is reported in separate reports (see the Annual Reports for R829095C001 through R829095C005).

Progress Summary:

In broad outline, the Space-Time Aquatic Resources Modeling and Analysis Program (STARMAP) is proceeding consistently with the original proposal, except for there was some decline in the rate of work completion during Year 3 of the project. The Center Director estimates that approximately 80 percent of the work proposed for the first 3 years of the program has been completed. About 66 percent of the first 3 years' funds have been expended. The limited success in recruiting postdoctoral fellows is the main reason for both the delayed rate of completion of work and the low expenditure of funds. Recruiting efforts for postdoctoral fellows have been somewhat successful and continue to be pursued vigorously, but alternatives for accomplishing the research are being implemented, as recommended by the program's Science Advisory Committee. Specifically, we are developing part-time relations with several junior statisticians and anticipate continuing to involve them in a role similar to postdoctoral fellows through subcontracts.

STARMAP, in cooperation with Designs and Models for Aquatic Resource Surveys (DAMARS), sponsored the Third Annual Conference on Statistical Survey Design and Analysis for Aquatic Resources at Colorado State University (CSU), September 10-11, 2004. This conference involved major contributions from both programs and the Science Advisory Committees of these program, as well as persons from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), individuals from other federal agencies, and other interested participants, mainly from CSU. Students from both programs had major roles in this conference, presenting talks and posters. Several statisticians not affiliated with either program, including one from Australia, attended this meeting and participated in the discussions.

Members of the STARMAP team have been active in publications and presentations. Nine manuscripts have been published and approximately 60 professional presentations have been given. A large number of manuscripts are in various stages of development and publication. The Director has been active in organizing contributions to both national and international conferences as part of STARMAP's outreach efforts to several audiences. STARMAP was one sponsor of the Graybill Conference, June 16-18, 2004.

During this reporting period, STARMAP personnel have completed 7 scientific publications, have 3 in press, have at least 17 manuscripts under journal review, have completed a masters report, and have at least 17 other manuscripts in various stages of preparation. These personnel made approximately 60 professional presentations (almost all invited) and displayed 7 posters. They participated in at least 35 professional venues, ranging from departmental seminars to international conferences, making presentations or displaying posters at all of them. All STARMAP students have attended at least one professional meeting and made at least one oral presentation or displayed a poster; collectively they attended seven professional meetings, presenting at five of them and displaying posters at the other two. Details appear in the Annual Report Summaries for each of the Center's projects.

Substantial progress has been made in the direction of local area estimation for eventual use in projecting from a sample of data points to other unobserved locations. New methods for analyzing discrete composition data of the sort resulting from collections of aquatic macroinvertebrates have been developed; their utility will be explored further in collaboration with data resulting from the efforts of other investigators funded by EPA's Science To Achieve Results (STAR) program. GIS techniques for accomplishing spatially distributed probability of aquatic resources have been implemented, and are being tested now.

Future Activities:

Two recent STARMAP efforts relate to time-space modeling.: Aa doctoral seminar course, led by Breidt and Davis, explored current literature on spatial-temporal analysis. This course was presented by 10 doctoral statistics students, assisted by 2 faculty and 2 senior staff members. Secondly, EPA prepared a report to Congress on effects of the Clean Air Act Amendments, specifically its effect on trends in the acidification of surface waters. The underlying data involves both probability and purposefully picked sites, data across time (10+ years) and space of the scale of the Northeastern United States, and trend as the primary response. Most of the topics in this advanced seminar concern solutions, but this contemporary EPA situation was considered in all of its real complexity. All of the data from this study are now available for STARMAP participants. We anticipate that features of this complex situation will be considered by several students.


Journal Articles: 42 Displayed | Download in RIS Format

Other center views: All 302 publications 54 publications in selected types All 42 journal articles
Type Citation Sub Project Document Sources
Journal Article Andrews B, Davis RA, Breidt FJ. Maximum likelihood estimation for all-pass time series models. Journal of Multivariate Analysis 2006;97(7):1638-1659. R829095 (Final)
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  • Full-text: ScienceDirect-Full Text PDF
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  • Abstract: ScienceDirect-Abstract
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  • Journal Article Andrews B, Davis RA, Breidt FJ. Rank-based estimation for all-pass time series models. Annals of Statistics 2007;35(2):844-869. R829095 (2005)
    R829095 (Final)
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  • Full-text: Project Euclid-Full Text PDF
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  • Abstract: Project Euclid-Abstract
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  • Other: Cornell University-Full Text PDF
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  • Journal Article Breidt FJ, Hsu N-J. Best mean square prediction for moving averages. Statistica Sinica 2005;15(2):427-446. R829095 (Final)
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  • Full-text: StatisticaSinica-Full Text PDF
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  • Abstract: StatisticaSinica-Abstract
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  • Journal Article Breidt FJ, Claeskens G, Opsomer JD. Model-assisted estimation for complex surveys using penalised splines. Biometrika 2005;92(4):831-846. R829095 (Final)
    R829095C002 (2003)
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  • Abstract: Oxford Journals-Abstract
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  • Other: Ku Leuven-Prepublication PDF
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  • Journal Article Breidt FJ, Opsomer JD, Johnson AA, Ranalli MG. Semiparametric model-assisted estimation for natural resource surveys. Survey Methodology 2007;33(1):35-44. R829095 (Final)
    R829095C002 (2003)
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  • Full-text: Statistics Canada-Full Text PDF
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  • Abstract: Statistics Canada-TOC
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  • Journal Article Breidt FJ, Hsu N-J, Ogle S. Semiparametric mixed models for increment-averaged data with application to carbon sequestration in agricultural soils. Journal of the American Statistical Association 2007;102(479):803-812. R829095 (2005)
  • Abstract: Journal of the American Statistical Association-Abstract
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  • Journal Article Brockwell PJ, Davis RA, Yang Y. Continuous-time Gaussian autoregression. Statistica Sinica 2007;17(1):63-80. R829095 (Final)
  • Full-text: Statistica Sinica - Full Text PDF
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  • Abstract: Statistica Sinica - Abstract
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  • Journal Article Courbois JP, Urquhart NS. Comparison of survey estimates of the finite population variance. Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics 2004;9(2):236-251. R829095 (2004)
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  • Abstract: SpringerLink
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  • Journal Article Da Silva DN, Opsomer JD. Properties of the weighting cell estimator under a nonparametric response mechanism. Survey Methodology 2004;30(1):45-55. R829095 (2003)
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  • Full-text: Statistics Canada-Full Text PDF
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  • Abstract: Statistics Canada-Abstract
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  • Journal Article Dailey M, Gitelman AI, Ramsey FL, Starcevich S. Habitat selection models to account for seasonal persistence in radio telemetry data. Environmental and Ecological Statistics 2007;14(1):55-68. R829095 (2004)
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  • Abstract: Springer - Abstract
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  • Journal Article Davis RA, Dunsmuir WTM, Streett SB. Observation-driven models for Poisson counts. Biometrika 2003;90(4):777-790. R829095 (Final)
  • Abstract: Biometrika - Abstract
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  • Other: Columbia University-Full Text PDF
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  • Journal Article Davis RA, Rodriguez-Yam G. Estimation for state-space models based on a likelihood approximation. Statistica Sinica 2005;15(2):381-406. R829095 (Final)
    R829095C001 (2005)
  • Full-text: Institute of Statistical Science Academia Sinica-Full Text PDF
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  • Abstract: Statistica Sinica-Abstract
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  • Journal Article Davis RA, Lee TCM, Rodriguez-Yam GA. Structural break estimation for nonstationary time series models. Journal of the American Statistical Association 2006;101(473):223-239. R829095 (Final)
  • Full-text: University of California-Full Text PDF
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  • Abstract: Taylor & Francis-Abstract
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  • Journal Article Farnsworth ML, Hoeting JA, Hobbs NT, Miller MW. Linking chronic wasting disease to mule deer movement scales:a hierarchical Bayesian approach. Ecological Applications 2006;16(3):1026-1036. R829095 (Final)
  • Abstract from PubMed
  • Full-text: Colorado State University-Full Text PDF
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  • Abstract: Ecological Applications-Abstract
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  • Journal Article Francisco-Fernandez M, Opsomer JD. Smoothing parameter selection methods for nonparametric regression with spatially correlated errors. Canadian Journal of Statistics 2005;33(2):279-295. R829095 (Final)
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  • Full-text: Universidade da Coruna-Preprint PDF
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  • Abstract: Wiley-Abstract
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  • Journal Article Francisco-Fernandez M, Jurado-Exposito M, Opsomer JD, Lopez-Granados F. A nonparametric analysis of the spatial distribution of Convolvulus arvensis in wheat-sunflower rotations. Environmetrics 2006;17(8):849-860. R829095 (2004)
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  • Full-text: Universidade da Coruna-Prepublication PDF
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  • Abstract: Wiley Interscience Abstract
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  • Journal Article Gitelman AI, Herlihy A. Isomorphic chain graphs for modeling spatial dependence in ecological data. Environmental and Ecological Statistics 2007;14(1):27-40. R829095 (2004)
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  • Abstract: SpringerLink Abstract
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  • Journal Article Hall P, Opsomer JD. Theory for penalised spline regression. Biometrika 2005;92(1):105-118. R829095 (Final)
    R829095C002 (2005)
  • Abstract: Biometrika
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  • Journal Article Hoeting JA, Davis RA, Merton AA, Thompson SE. Model selection for geostatistical models. Ecological Applications 2006;16(1):87-98. R829095 (Final)
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  • Abstract from PubMed
  • Full-text: Colorado State University-Full Text PDF
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  • Abstract: ESA-Abstract
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  • Journal Article Hoeting JA. Some perspectives on modeling species distributions. Bayesian Analysis 2006;1(1):93-98. (Comment on article by Gelfand et al.). R829095 (2004)
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  • Full-text: Carnegie Mellon University-Full Text PDF
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  • Abstract: Carnegie Mellon University-Abstract
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  • Journal Article Johnson AA, Breidt FJ, Opsomer JD. Estimating distribution functions from survey data using nonparametric regression. Journal of Statistical Theory and Practice 2008;2(3):419-431. R829095 (2004)
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  • Abstract: Taylor&Francis-Abstract
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  • Other: Journal Issue Contents
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  • Journal Article Johnson DS, Hoeting JA. Autoregressive models for capture-recapture data:a Bayesian approach. Biometrics 2003;59(2):341-350. R829095 (2004)
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  • Abstract from PubMed
  • Full-text: Colorado State University-Full Text PDF
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  • Abstract: Wiley-Abstract
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  • Journal Article Johnson DS, Hoeting JA. Bayesian multimodel inference for geostatistical regression models. PLoS ONE 2011;6(11):e25677. R829095C001 (2005)
  • Full-text: PLoS ONE-Full Text HTML & PDF Link
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  • Journal Article Kahl JS, Stoddard JL, Haeuber R, Paulsen SG, Birnbaum R, Deviney FA, Webb JR, DeWalle DR, Sharpe W, Driscoll CT, Herlihy AT, Kellogg JH, Murdoch PS, Roy K, Webster KE, Urquhart NS. Peer Reviewed: Have U.S. surface waters responded to the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments? Environmental Science & Technology 2004;38(24):484A-490A. R829095 (2004)
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  • Abstract from PubMed
  • Full-text: University of Virginia-Full Text PDF
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  • Abstract: ES&T-Abstract
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  • Other: Research Gate-Full Text PDF
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  • Journal Article Kauermann G, Opsomer JD. Generalized cross-validation for bandwidth selection of backfitting estimates in generalized additive models. Journal of Computational & Graphical Statistics 2004;13(1):66-89. R829095 (Final)
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  • Full-text: Research Gate-Abstract and Full Text HTML
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  • Abstract: Taylor & Francis - Abstract
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  • Journal Article Kincaid TM, Larsen DP, Urquhart NS. The structure of variation and its influence on the estimation of status: indicators of condition of lakes in Northeast, U.S.A. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment 2004;98(1-3):1-21. R829095 (Final)
    R829095C003 (2003)
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  • Abstract: Springer-Abstract
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  • Journal Article Larsen DP, Kincaid TM, Jacobs SE, Urquhart NS. Designs for evaluating local and regional scale trends. Bioscience 2001;51(12):1069-1078. R829095 (2004)
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  • Abstract: BioOne Abstract
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  • Journal Article Larsen DP, Kaufmann PR, Kincaid TM, Urquhart NS. Detecting persistent change in the habitat of salmon-bearing streams in the Pacific Northwest. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 2004;61(2):283-291. R829095 (2004)
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  • Full-text: Instituto de Ciencias Biologicas-Full Text PDF
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  • Abstract: NRC Research Press Abstract
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  • Journal Article Montanari GE, Ranalli MG. Nonparametric model calibration estimation in survey sampling. Journal of the American Statistical Association 2005;100(472):1429-1442. R829095 (Final)
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  • Abstract: American Statistical Association-Abstract
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  • Journal Article Opsomer JD, Botts C, Kim JY. Small area estimation in a watershed erosion assessment survey. Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics 2003;8(2):139-152. R829095 (2004)
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  • Full-text: Research Gate-Abstract and Full Text HMTL
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  • Abstract: SpringerLink-Abstract
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  • Journal Article Opsomer JD, Miller CP. Selecting the amount of smoothing in nonparametric regression estimation for complex surveys. Journal of Nonparametric Statistics 2005;17(5):593-611. R829095 (Final)
    R829095C002 (2004)
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  • Abstract: Taylor & Francis-Abstract
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  • Journal Article Opsomer JD, Breidt FJ, Moisen GG, Kauermann G. Model-assisted estimation of forest resources with generalized additive models. Journal of the American Statistical Association 2007;102(478):400-409. R829095 (2004)
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  • Full-text: US Forest Service-Full Text PDF
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  • Abstract: Journal of the American Statistical Association-Abstract
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  • Journal Article Opsomer JD, Claeskens G, Ranalli MG, Kauermann G, Breidt FJ. Non-parametric small area estimation using penalized spline regression. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology) 2008;70(1):265-286. R829095C002 (2005)
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  • Abstract: Wiley
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  • Other: Prepublication PDF
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  • Journal Article Opsomer JD, Francisco-Fernandez M. Finding local departures from a parametric model using nonparametric regression. Statistical Papers 2010;51(1):69-84. R829095C002 (2005)
  • Abstract: SpringerLink-Abstract
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  • Journal Article Peterson EE, Merton AA, Theobald DM, Urquhart NS. Patterns of spatial autocorrelation in stream water chemistry. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment 2006;121(1-3):571-596. R829095 (Final)
  • Abstract from PubMed
  • Full-text: Research Gate-Full Text PDF
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  • Abstract: SpringerLink-Abstract
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  • Journal Article Peterson EE, Urquhart NS. Predicting water quality impaired stream segments using landscape-scale data and a regional geostatistical model: a case study in Maryland. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment 2006;121(1-3):615-638. R829095 (2005)
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  • Abstract from PubMed
  • Full-text: Research Gate-Abstract and Full Text HTML
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  • Abstract: SpringerLink-Abstract
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  • Journal Article Reese GC, Wilson KR, Hoeting JA, Flather CH. Factors affecting species distribution predictions: a simulation modeling experiment. Ecological Applications 2005;15(2):554-564. R829095 (Final)
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  • Full-text: U.S. Forest Service-Full Text PDF
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  • Abstract: Ecological Society of America-Abstract
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  • Journal Article Ritter KJ, Leecaster MK. Multi-lag cluster designs for estimating the semivariogram for sediments affected by effluent discharges offshore in San Diego. Environmental and Ecological Statistics 2007;14(1):41-53. R829095 (Final)
  • Abstract: Springer - Abstract
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  • Other: Southern California Coastal Water Research Project-Report PDF
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  • Journal Article Thomas DL, Johnson D, Griffith B. A Bayesian random effects discrete-choice model for resource selection: population-level selection inference. Journal of Wildlife Management 2006;70(2):404-412. R829095 (Final)
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  • Abstract: Wiley-Abstract
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  • Journal Article Ver Hoef JM, Peterson E, Theobald D. Spatial statistical models that use flow and stream distance. Environmental and Ecological Statistics 2006;13(4):449-464. R829095 (Final)
  • Full-text: University of Nebrask-Lincoln-Full Text PDF
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  • Abstract: SpringerLink
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  • Journal Article Waite IR, Herlihy AT, Larsen DP, Urquhart NS, Klemm DJ. The effects of macroinvertebrate taxonomic resolution in large landscape bioassessments: an example from the Mid-Atlantic Highlands, U.S.A. Freshwater Biology 2004;49(4):474-489. R829095 (Final)
    R829095C003 (2004)
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  • Abstract: Wiley - Abstract
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  • Journal Article Wang H, Ranalli MG. Low-rank smoothing splines on complicated domains. Biometrics 2007;63(1):209-217. R829095 (2004)
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  • Abstract from PubMed
  • Abstract: Wiley Interscience-Abstract
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  • Other: BNU-PrepublicationFull Text PDF
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  • Supplemental Keywords:

    latent processes, Matern covariance function, model selection, remote sensing, sampling design, path analysis, kernel regression, thin plate splines, small area estimation, geographic information system, GIS, tessellation stratified sampling, water quality, land cover, land use, accuracy, precision, outreach, distance learning, web-based learning, needs-based instruction, accommodating cultural differences, management, efficiency, RFA, Scientific Discipline, Air, Ecosystem Protection/Environmental Exposure & Risk, Aquatic Ecosystems & Estuarine Research, climate change, Air Pollution Effects, Aquatic Ecosystem, Environmental Monitoring, Atmosphere, EMAP, ecosystem monitoring, statistical survey design, spatial and temporal modeling, aquatic ecosystems, water quality, Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program

    Relevant Websites:

    http://www.stat.colostate.edu/starmap Exit

    http://www.stat.colostate.edu/graybillconference2004/ Exit

    Progress and Final Reports:

    Original Abstract
  • 2002
  • 2003 Progress Report
  • 2005 Progress Report
  • Final Report
  • Subprojects under this Center: (EPA does not fund or establish subprojects; EPA awards and manages the overall grant for this center).
    R829095C001 Combining Environmental Data Sets
    R829095C002 Local Inferences from Aquatic Studies
    R829095C003 Development and Evaluation of Aquatic Indicators
    R829095C004 Extension of Expertise on Design and Analysis to States and Tribes
    R829095C005 Integration and Coordination for STARMAP