Regional Development, Population Trend, and Technology Change Impacts on Future Air Pollution Emissions in the San Joaquin Valley

EPA Grant Number: R831842
Title: Regional Development, Population Trend, and Technology Change Impacts on Future Air Pollution Emissions in the San Joaquin Valley
Investigators: Kleeman, Michael J. , Niemeier, Deb , Lund, Jay , Handy, Susan
Institution: University of California - Davis
EPA Project Officer: Chung, Serena
Project Period: October 1, 2004 through September 30, 2007 (Extended to September 30, 2010)
Project Amount: $680,000
RFA: Regional Development, Population Trend, and Technology Change Impacts on Future Air Pollution Emissions (2004) RFA Text |  Recipients Lists
Research Category: Climate Change , Air


Future progress towards the abatement of air pollution in cities throughout the United States is uncertain because population expansion and current socioeconomic trends increase pollutant emissions. There is a gap in our understanding of how these factors will combine to influence air quality at the urban and regional scale. In this research we will integrate economic forecasts with land-use models, water constraint models, travel demand models, and stationary source models to create an emissions modeling system that can be used to predict future air pollution emissions. The new emissions modeling system will be demonstrated by predicting air quality emissions in the San Joaquin Valley (SJV) in central California during the year 2030.


Economic forecasts for the SJV will be obtained from the California Department of Finance, regional planning agencies, local governments, and the expert advisory panel. Land-use scenarios will then be constructed based on assumptions about regional and local policies governing urban growth in the presence of water constraints. Stationary source and off-road mobile source emissions inventories for the SJV will be projected from the base-year emissions inventories created for the California Regional Particulate Air Quality Study (CRPAQS) and the Central California Ozone Study (CCOS). On-road mobile source emissions in the SJV will be predicted using a new travel demand forecast model (UCDrive) with improved spatial resolution. Detailed emissions profiles will be used to transform Volatile Organic Compound (VOC) and Total Suspended Particulate matter (TSP) emissions into a comprehensive description of organic compound composition and size / composition-resolved particulate matter suitable for air quality modeling. A range of possible future air pollution emissions scenarios will be investigated for the SJV to analyze the effect of policy decisions and the adoption of new technology in the presence of population expansion and economic growth.

Expected Results:

Emissions inventories for the summer (ozone) and winter (particulate matter) seasons in the SJV will be constructed for the year 2030. The results of air quality simulations based on each emissions inventory and the analysis conducted on those results will be provided to help understand the critical factors in the emissions generation system that lead to significant changes in predicted air quality. The emissions inventory system produced by this research will be useful in estimating future air quality emissions in other geographic regions in the United States.

Publications and Presentations:

Publications have been submitted on this project: View all 9 publications for this project

Journal Articles:

Journal Articles have been submitted on this project: View all 4 journal articles for this project

Supplemental Keywords:

emissions model, Global Change, San Joaquin Valley, RFA, Scientific Discipline, Air, climate change, Air Pollution Effects, Environmental Monitoring, Ecological Risk Assessment, Atmosphere, Urban and Regional Planning, atmospheric carbon dioxide, ecosystem models, human activities, VOCs, economic models, emissions impact, climate models, demographics, greenhouse gases, urban growth, ecosystem impacts, air quality, climate variability, Global Climate Change

Progress and Final Reports:

  • 2005 Progress Report
  • 2006 Progress Report
  • 2007 Progress Report
  • 2008 Progress Report
  • 2009 Progress Report
  • Final Report