2008 Progress Report: Advanced Modeling System for Forecasting Regional Development, Travel Behavior, and Spatial Pattern of Emissions

EPA Grant Number: R831835
Title: Advanced Modeling System for Forecasting Regional Development, Travel Behavior, and Spatial Pattern of Emissions
Investigators: Rodriguez, Daniel , Frey, H. Christopher , Morton, Brian J. , Khattak, Asad , Huntsinger, Leta , Rouphail, Nagui , Song, Yan
Current Investigators: Rodriguez, Daniel , Hanna, Adel , Frey, H. Christopher , Morton, Brian J. , Khattak, Asad , Rouphail, Nagui , Arunachalam, Sarav , Song, Yan
Institution: University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill , North Carolina State University
EPA Project Officer: Chung, Serena
Project Period: September 1, 2004 through November 14, 2009
Project Period Covered by this Report: November 15, 2006 through November 14,2008
Project Amount: $680,000
RFA: Regional Development, Population Trend, and Technology Change Impacts on Future Air Pollution Emissions (2004) RFA Text |  Recipients Lists
Research Category: Climate Change , Air

Objective:

Through simulation modeling of land use, transportation, emissions, and air quality, this research rigorously tests the hypothesis that development patterns significantly affect the quantity and spatial distribution of mobile-source emissions that contribute to unhealthful tropospheric ozone and fine particulate matter (PM). The team has developed a simulation model with land use, travel behavior, and emissions components, using data for the Charlotte (NC) metro area. Scenarios to be simulated include a baseline and projections for various land use patterns, vehicle technologies, and transportation systems. The final output will be spatially distributed emission projections for multiple scenarios, with ozone and PM projections from the Models 3/Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system.

Progress Summary:

Transportation network

Following intensive consultation with the software author, calibration of the integrated transportation and land development model (TRANUS) is nearly complete, and preliminary results in hand. Development of future scenarios continues.

Neighborhood transect, and land use and travel behavior

The team developed a future Smart Growth scenario for Mecklenburg County, to describe both land use and transportation policies, as well as an expanded fixed-guideway transit system. The scenario is illustrated with both a narrative and constructed GIS layers. The team developed a framework to translate the scenario into TRANUS input parameters. Behavioral models, sensitized to land-use variables using three different quantitative representations of the environment and used to estimate mode choice, found variation among trip types and environments. Path analysis illuminated direct and indirect associations.

Emissions

Link-based emissions models for both conventional and alternative vehicle technologies were used to estimate a regional emission inventory. A case study with the Triangle Regional Model illustrated the method for regional emissions estimates and comparing fuel and technologies effects on emissions.

Future Activities:

Through November 2008

Neighborhood Transect and land use and travel behavior modeling

Model runs for the year 2050 are scheduled for May. Land development and transportation scenarios will be coupled with the emissions modeling in summer, and air quality modeling done in fall. We will integrate results from travel behavior analysis and the TRANUS land use/transportation model, and validate/calibrate TRANUS outputs with count data from North Carolina Department of Transportation.

Emissions and air quality monitoring

The emissions team will combine link-based emissions models and vehicle activities data from TRANUS results to estimate baseline and future emission inventories, and investigate integrated and marginal effects of land use and vehicle technology on regional on-road vehicle emissions over a long planning horizon. The UNC-CH air quality modeling group will run models for base case and scenarios.


Journal Articles on this Report : 4 Displayed | Download in RIS Format

Other project views: All 44 publications 15 publications in selected types All 15 journal articles
Type Citation Project Document Sources
Journal Article Cho EJ, Rodriguez D, Song Y. The role of employment subcenters in residential location decisions. Journal of Transport and Land Use 2008;1(2):121-151. R831835 (2008)
R831835 (Final)
  • Full-text: Journal of Transport and Land Use-Full Text PDF
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  • Abstract: Journal of Transport and Land Use-Abstract
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  • Journal Article Frey HC, Rouphail NM, Zhai H, Farias TL, Goncalves GA. Comparing real-world fuel consumption for diesel-and hydrogen-fueled transit buses and implication for emissions. Transportation Research Part D:Transport and Environment 2007;12(4):281-291. R831835 (2007)
    R831835 (2008)
    R831835 (Final)
  • Full-text: Science Direct-Full Text HTML
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  • Abstract: Science Direct-Abstract
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  • Other: Science Direct-Full Text PDF
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  • Journal Article Frey HC, Rouphail NM, Zhai H. Link-based emission factors for heavy-duty diesel trucks based on real-world data. Transportation Research Record 2008;2058:23-32. R831835 (2007)
    R831835 (2008)
    R831835 (Final)
  • Full-text: Sage-Full Text PDF
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  • Abstract: Sage-Abstract
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  • Journal Article Shay E, Khattak AJ. Automobiles, trips, and neighborhood type:comparing environmental measures. Transportation Research Record 2007;2010:73-82. R831835 (2007)
    R831835 (2008)
    R831835 (Final)
  • Full-text: Sage-Full Text PDF
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  • Abstract: NAS-Abstract
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  • Supplemental Keywords:

    RFA, Scientific Discipline, PHYSICAL ASPECTS, Air, Ecosystem Protection/Environmental Exposure & Risk, climate change, Air Pollution Effects, Monitoring/Modeling, Environmental Monitoring, Physical Processes, Urban and Regional Planning, Atmosphere, ecosystem models, infrastructure systems, human activities, ozone , motor vehicle emissions, emissions monitoring, land use model, Emissions Inventory Modeling System, exposure, traffic patterns, green house gas concentrations, modeling, human exposue, air quality model, mobile source emissions, mobile sources, atmospheric pollutant loads, tropospheric ozone, regional emissions model, global warming, climate model, ecological models, predicting ecological response, air quality, climate variability, community structure, Global Climate Change, ambient air pollution, ozone concentrations

    Progress and Final Reports:

    Original Abstract
  • 2005 Progress Report
  • 2006 Progress Report
  • 2007 Progress Report
  • 2009
  • Final Report