Framework for Predicting the Effects of Environmental Change on Populations

EPA Grant Number: R823588
Title: Framework for Predicting the Effects of Environmental Change on Populations
Investigators: Nisbet, Roger M. , Murdoch, William W.
Institution: University of California - Santa Barbara
EPA Project Officer: Hahn, Intaek
Project Period: August 15, 1995 through August 14, 1998
Project Amount: $360,037
RFA: Exploratory Research - Environmental Biology (1995) RFA Text |  Recipients Lists
Research Category: Biology/Life Sciences , Health , Ecosystems


Individual-based population models are being increasingly used to predict the consequences for populations of environmental stress on individuals. This project aims to test the fundamental assumption behind individual-based modeling; namely, that a population may be modeled as a collection of individuals growing, reproducing and dying in accordance with the same rules that were previously determined and tested for isolated individuals. The research will involve the use of modeling to generate predictions, and experiments on laboratory populations of Daphnia to test the predictions. The project is a crucial part of a larger program that aims to develop methods for predicting the effects of exposure to toxicants, and other human-induced perturbations, on the dynamics of ecological systems.

Publications and Presentations:

Publications have been submitted on this project: View all 12 publications for this project

Journal Articles:

Journal Articles have been submitted on this project: View all 8 journal articles for this project

Supplemental Keywords:

RFA, Scientific Discipline, Ecosystem Protection/Environmental Exposure & Risk, Ecology, Ecosystem/Assessment/Indicators, Ecosystem Protection, exploratory research environmental biology, Chemical Mixtures - Environmental Exposure & Risk, Chemistry, Ecological Effects - Environmental Exposure & Risk, Monitoring/Modeling, Ecological Effects - Human Health, Biology, Ecological Indicators, ecological exposure, anthropogenic stress, environmental monitoring, ecological modeling, exposure, population level response, ecological impacts, predictive model, ecosystem health, population models, predicting environmental change, environmental impact

Progress and Final Reports:

  • 1996
  • 1997
  • Final Report