A Systematic Approach for Selecting Climate Projections to Inform Regional Impact Assessments (Final)

Advances in both the scientific understanding of the climate system and the capability to produce climate simulations have led to a growing number of new and updated projections of future climate suitable for use in impacts, vulnerability, and risk assessments in the United States. The volume and complexity of this information present immense challenges for non-specialists attempting to identify relevant projections for their specific analytic or assessment needs. This report presents a practical approach for selecting climate projections, which are simulated responses of the climate system based on a set of assumptions about changes in natural and anthropogenic forcings. Specifically, it provides guidance to help users answer the question, which climate projection(s) should I use? It accomplishes this by helping users visualize strategies for capturing the key uncertainties represented by all the available model projections, using a manageable number of representative projections that can serve as input into their analysis or assessment.

The report describes the approach used by a new online tool that allows users to quickly and transparently identify climate projections relevant to a specific research or assessment question. The report also reviews and describes intractable challenges typically encountered when the identification and acquisition of climate projections is needed.

Impact/Purpose

The report describes the approach used by a new online tool that allows users to quickly and transparently identify climate projections relevant to a specific research or assessment question. The report also reviews and describes intractable challenges typically encountered when the identification and acquisition of climate projections is needed.

Citation

U.S. EPA. A Systematic Approach for Selecting Climate Projections to Inform Regional Impact Assessments (Final). EPA/600/R-20/309, 2020.

History/Chronology

Date Description
01-Sep 2020EPA released the final report.
02-Aug 2020EPA approved the release of the final report.
03-Aug 2019EPA released a revised version of the LASSO tool.
04-Mar 2019EPA conducted user testing of the LASSO tool.
05-Feb 2019EPA released an early version of the LASSO tool online.
06-Aug 2017EPA conducted an external peer review.
07-May 2017EPA conducted an internal review.

This document has been reviewed in accordance with U.S. Environmental Protection Agency policy and approved for publication. Mention of trade names or commercial products does not constitute endorsement or recommendation for use.