Updates to the Demographic and Spatial Allocation Models to Produce Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) (Version 2) (External Review Draft)
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The first version of the Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) project modeled population, residential development, and impervious surface cover changes by decade to the year 2100 consistent with four global carbon emissions storylines and a baseline. The current report discusses improvements to the underlying models of ICLUS that result in version 2 (v2). ICLUS v2 is consistent with updated global socioeconomic scenarios (e.g., Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)) and new global climate change model targets (e.g., Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)).
Improvements include the use of updated population and land use/cover data sets, integration of changing climate variables within the migration model, inclusion of transportation network capacity and its increase over time, growth in commercial and industrial land uses, and the use of population density-driven demands for growth of residential housing, commercial development, and industry.
This report demonstrates the effect of these improvements by comparing national and regional results among the SSP and RCP combinations used and the two climate models selected. ICLUS v2 shows differences in population migration patterns by including climate variables that change over time rather than ones that are static. Additionally, changing commercial and industrial land uses can drive patterns of new urban growth that have consequences for many environmental endpoints.
|Aug 2014||EPA conducted an internal review.|
|Apr 2016||EPA released the draft report for public review and comment.|
This download(s) is distributed solely for the purpose of pre-dissemination peer review under applicable information quality guidelines. It has not been formally disseminated by EPA. It does not represent and should not be construed to represent any Agency determination or policy.
- (130 pp, 5 MB, about PDF)
- Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines (Final Report)
- ICLUS Tools and Datasets (Version 1.3 & 1.3.1)
- ICLUS Tools and Datasets (Version 1.2) and User's Manual: Arcgis Tools and Datasets for Modeling US Housing Density (External Review Draft)
- ICLUS Tools and Datasets (Version 1.3.2)
- Updates to the Demographic and Spatial Allocation Models to Produce Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) (Final Report, Version 2)
Comments on the assessment may be submitted and reviewed using the Docket ID EPA-ORD-2016-0196