US EPA

The use of predictive Bayesian methods in dose-response assessment will be investigated. The predictive Bayesian approach offers an alternative to current approaches in that it does not require the selection of a specific confidence limit, yet provides an answer that is more conservative with less data. Standard dose-response models will be assessed within this framework. An additional dose-response model that reflects better the real-world nature of exposure to pathogens in drinking water will be developed and assessed, as well. The models will be verified by simulation of microbial infection and illness processes. Data needs and immediate follow-on NCEA dose-response modeling research will be identified.

The results will feed into the development of pathogen dose-response guidance, as part of the overall microbial risk-assessment guidelines development to support the future generation of risk assessments for use by the Office of Water and Homeland Security.