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A PERSPECTIVE FROM U.S. EPA: UNCERTAINTY, SENSITIVITY, AND PARAMETER ESTIMATION IN MULTIMEDIA EXPOSURE AND RISK ASSESSMENT MODELING
Citation:
Babendreier, J E. A PERSPECTIVE FROM U.S. EPA: UNCERTAINTY, SENSITIVITY, AND PARAMETER ESTIMATION IN MULTIMEDIA EXPOSURE AND RISK ASSESSMENT MODELING. International Workshop on Uncertainty, Sensitivity, and Parameter Estimation for Multimedia Environmental Modeling, Rockville, MD, August 19 - 21, 2003. U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC, 13-17, (2004).
Impact/Purpose:
The primary goals are to: (1) Construct a 400-node PC-based supercomputing cluster supporting Windows and Linux computer operating systems (i.e. SuperMUSE: Supercomputer for Model Uncertainty and Sensitivity Evaluation); (2) Develop platform-independent system software for the management of SuperMUSE and parallelization of EPA models and modeling systems for implementation on SuperMUSE (and other PC-based clusters); (3) Conduct uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of the 3MRA modeling system; (4) Develop advanced algorithmic software for advanced statistical sampling methods, and screening, localized, and global sensitivity analyses; and (5) Provide customer-oriented model applications for probabilistic risk assessment supporting quality assurance in multimedia decision-making.
Description:
Since its amalgamation as a Federal Agency over 30 years ago, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has undertaken many activities contributing to the international community's collective foundation for modern, multimedia environmental modeling. A key component of its current research agenda, the Agency is seeking to better understand the role and functionality of multimedia modeling as an exposure/risk assessment tool to support sound decision-making. Complimenting data collection, also a fundamental activity supporting its mission, EPA's complementary modeling efforts were initially focused on single-medium paradigms, which have formed, for the most part, the technical basis of many of today's regulatory programs. Over the last decade, EPA's assessment capabilities have matured into several integrated, multimedia-modeling software technologies that currently sit at or near deployment for use by both regulators and stakeholders. As these more complex, integrated assessment tools become engaged in the decision-making process, their use has underscored the need to more transparently characterize the attendant uncertainty in model inputs and outputs, and the associated sensitivity of model outputs to input error. Understanding, communicating, and optimally managing the strengths and weaknesses of integrated science, quantitatively captured as multimedia modeling technologies and data, is clearly one of the Agency's greatest goals and challenges. Discussion presented here on EPA's research perspectives for multimedia environmental modeling focus on several themes: modern environmental assessments; probabilistic exposure/risk assessments; OMB-driven information quality guidelines; example research activities being conducted at USEPA/ORD/NERL.