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MODELLING IMPACTS ON POPULATIONS: FATHEAD MINNOW (PIMEPHALES PROMELAS) EXPOSURE TO THE ENDOCRINE DISRUPTOR 17-B-TRENBOLONE AS A CASE STUDY
Citation:
Miller, D. H. AND G T. Ankley. MODELLING IMPACTS ON POPULATIONS: FATHEAD MINNOW (PIMEPHALES PROMELAS) EXPOSURE TO THE ENDOCRINE DISRUPTOR 17-B-TRENBOLONE AS A CASE STUDY. ECOTOXICOLOGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL SAFETY. Elsevier International, 59(2004):1-9, (2004).
Impact/Purpose:
a predictive model was developed to translate changes in fecundity of the fathead minnow in a short term laboratory toxicity test to alterations in population growth rate
Description:
Evaluation of population-level impacts is critical to credible ecological risk assessments. In this study, a predictive model was developed to translate changes in fecundity of the fathead minnow in a short term laboratory toxicity test to alterations in population growth rate. The model comnbines a Leslie population projection matrix and the logistic equation. Application of the model requires only a life table for the organism of interest, a measure of carrying capacity for the given population, and estimation of the effect of a stressor on vital rates. The model was applied to investigate population dynamics for fathead minnow exposed to the androgen receptor agonist 17-B-trenbolone. Organismal-level responses for fathead minnows exposed to varying levels of 17-B-trenbolone were used to determine projected alterations in a population existing in a small body of water containing varying concentrations of the androgen. Fathead minnow populations occurring at carrying capacity and subsequently exposed to 0.027 ug/L of 17-B-trenbolone exhibited a 51% projected decrease in average population size after 2 years of exposure. Populations at carrying capacity exposed to concentrations of 17-B-trenbolone plus or minus 0.266 ug/L exhibited a 93% projected decrease in average population size after 2 years of exposure. Overall, fathead minnow populations exposed to continued concentrations of B-trenbolone equal to or greater than 0.027 ug/L were projected to have average equilibrium population sizes of zero.