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ASSESSING ALTERNATIVE FUTURES FOR AGRICULTURE IN IOWA, U.S.A.
Citation:
Santelmann, M. V., R D. White, K. Freemark, J. Nassauer, J. Eilers, K. Vache, B. Danielson, R. C. Corry, M. Clark, S. Polasky, R. Cruse, J. C. Sifneos, H. L. Rustigian, AND C. Coiner. ASSESSING ALTERNATIVE FUTURES FOR AGRICULTURE IN IOWA, U.S.A. LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Hingham, MA, 19:357-374, (2004).
Description:
The contributions of current industrial agricultural practices to environmental degradation and the social problems facing agricultural regions are well known. However, landscape-scale alternatives to current conditions have not been fully explored nor their potential impacts quantified. To address this research need, our interdisciplinary team designed three alternative future scenarios for two Iowa watersheds, and used spatially-explicit models and other techniques to evaluate the potential consequences of changes in farmland management. This paper summarizes and integrates the results of this interdisciplinary research project into an assessment of the designed alternatives. Scenarios were digitized into a Geographic Information Systems (GIS), visualized with maps and simulated images, and evaluated for multiple endpoints to assess impacts of land use change on water quality, social and economic goals, and native biodiversity. Scenario 3, targeting restoration of biodiversity, ranked higher than the current landscape for all endpoints (biodiversity, water quality, farmer preference, and profitability), dominated projected trends (Scenario 1) in all endpoints but profitability, for which the two scenarios scored similarly, and dominated Scenario 2 in all endpoints except water quality; Scenario 2, which targeted improvement in water quality, ranked highest of all landscapes in potential water quality and higher than the current landscape and Scenario 1 in all but profitability. Our results indicate that innovative agricultural practices targeting environmental improvements may be acceptable to farmers and could substantially reduce the environmental impacts of agriculture on the rural landscape.