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TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEM SIMULATOR
Citation:
McKane, R B. TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEM SIMULATOR. Presented at Presentation to EPA Headquarters Staff, Washington, DC, July 15, 2004.
Description:
The Terrestrial Habitats Project at the Western Ecology Division (Corvallis, OR) is developing tools and databases to meet the needs of Program Office clients for assessing risks to wildlife and terrestrial ecosystems. Because habitat is a dynamic condition in real-world environments, our approach includes the development of a set of linked models that can simulate long-term changes in plant community dynamics as a result of natural or anthropogenic stressors (e.g., fire, climate change, nutrient inputs, contaminants, etc.). These models include a biogeochemistry model (GEM) connected with a hydrogeology model (TOPMODEL) to predict fate and effects of contaminated surface water on soil and plant processes. Resulting changes in nitrogen and carbon cycles will influence plant species composition, which will be simulated using a forest community model (FORCLIM) for the Pacific Northwest ecosystems. Because GEM is not limited to forested ecosystems, it can be coupled with other models to project similar changes in habitat conditions in landscapes such as grasslands or desert scrub. Wildlife population changes that result from habitat alterations can be predicted by overlaying spatially explicit population models (e.g., PATCH, which is being developed by a concurrent project in the Western Ecology Division). This versatility ultimately will permit conclusions derived from one ecosystem to be examined for relevance in another.
Taken together, our research will construct a new methodology for higher tiered terrestrial risk assessments that is spatially explicit and designed for use in real settings. It will track conditions in ecosystems of concern over timeframes that are ecologically relevant, and will provide the tools for assessing impacts on wildlife populations from both direct and indirect (i.e., habitat related) disturbances. The outputs will be computer-generated visualizations of predicted changes that can provide both Risk Assessors and Risk Managers with real tools for use in environmental decision-making.