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THE U.S. EPA'S VISION FOR A BEACH FORECASTING TOOL
Citation:
Frick, W E., M. Davis, A P. Dufour, R S. Lunetta, J G. Lyon, M Molina, D. Rockwell, G N. Stelma Jr., AND X. Tian. THE U.S. EPA'S VISION FOR A BEACH FORECASTING TOOL. Presented at 3rd International Conference on Marine Waste Water Discharges3rd International Conference on Marine Waste Water Discharges, Catania, Italy, September 27-October 2, 2004.
Impact/Purpose:
A main objective of this task is to combine empirical and physical mechanisms in a model, known as Visual Beach, that
â— is user-friendly
â— includes point and non-point sources of contamination
â— includes the latest bacterial decay mechanisms
â— incorporates real-time and web-based ambient and atmospheric and aquatic conditions
â— and has a predictive capability of up to three days to help avert potential beach closures.
The suite of predictive capabilities for this software application can enhance the utility of new methodology for analysis of indicator pathogens by identifying times that represent the highest probability of bacterial contamination. Successful use of this model will provide a means to direct timely collection of monitoring samples, strengthening the value of the short turnaround time for sampling. Additionally, in some cases of known point sources of bacteria, such as waste water treatment plant discharges, the model can be applied to help guide operational controls to help prevent resulting beach closures.
Description:
Beach closures due to water quality that exceeds standard limits occur frequently in the United States. These beach closures deprive the public of opportunities for recreational activities and can have a significant impact on local economics. Because of the large number of marine and freshwater beaches in the U.S., the overall impact of beach closures on the nation could be extensive. These undesirable conditions have heightened interest in potential approaches to keeping beach closures to a minimum, while maintaining safe waters for recreational swimming. Multiple studies have shown that the current monitoring approach for maintaining water quality does not fully protect public health. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the U.S. Geological Survey have been actively engaged in developing prognostic and diagnostic tools to effectively determine when poor water quality will occur, so the public can be appropriately notified before they use beach water resources. Now EPA, NOAA, USGS, and other federal and local agencies are combining their efforts to develop a Beach Forecasting Tool (BFT). The BFT is designed to provide information about collecting and analyzing geophysical, morphological, and demographic data that can be used to predict or forecast current and future waste-field patterns arising from anthropogenic and natural sources. A tiered approach has been adopted ranging from relatively accessible empirical models intended for small municipalities and data sparse areas, to more sophisticated and data intensive models for major water bodies and heavily populated regions. For example, an empirical model may relate rainfall events to beach bacteria concentrations statistically to generate short-term forecasts of beach conditions. On the other hand, major urban public agencies may use specifically tailored numerical circulation and bacterial decay models, also brought into the BFT framework, to predict movement of water and the physical stresses on bacteria and pathogens to produce specific forecasts of beach conditions. The goal is to develop and demonstrate a working BFT prototype in 2005. The prototype will include modules to help define the site(s), satellite images, maps, weather maps, internet linkage, etc.; tools to describe and assess current conditions, e.g., bacterial decay calculators; one or more empirical models for application to data sparse sites; and an implementation of integrated source, circulation, and bacterial fate models.