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MODELING LEACHING OF VIRUSES BY THE MONTE CARLO METHOD
Citation:
Faulkner*, B P., W. G. Lyon, F A. Khan*, AND S. Chattopadhyay. MODELING LEACHING OF VIRUSES BY THE MONTE CARLO METHOD. Elsevier (ed.), WATER RESEARCH 37(19):4719-4729, (2003).
Description:
A predictive screening model was developed for fate and transport
of viruses in the unsaturated zone. A database of input parameters
allowed Monte Carlo analysis with the model. The resulting kernel
densities of predicted attenuation during percolation indicated very
small, but finite probabilities of failure for all homogeneous USDA
classified soils to attenuate reovirus 3 by 99.99%. The logarithms of
the parameters for unsaturated hydraulic conductivity a.ected virus
fate and transport about 3 times more than any other parameter, in-
cluding the logarithm of inactivation rate of suspended viruses. Model
results suggest extreme infiltration events may play a predominant role
in leaching of viruses in soils, since such events could impact hydraulic
conductivity. Although predictive modeling may provide insight into
actual attenuation of viruses, hydrogeologic sensitivity assessments for
the unsaturated zone should include a sampling program.