Impact/Purpose:

The framework of accountability is based on measuring environmental outcomes using an integrated environmental assessment model - - assessing and documenting relationships between emissions, air quality, atmospheric deposition, and effects to public health and ecosystems. Work in AMD will focus on relating changes in emissions to changes in environmental conditions prospectively, and the retrospective attribution of observable improvements in environmental conditions to specific emission control strategies.

1.Emission reductions observed in ambient air and atmospheric deposition

Since the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments, a greater number of stationary sources of SO2 and NOx emissions have installed continuous emissions monitoring systems. Improved systems for tracking emissions from mobile sources have also been developed. At this level, an accountability framework provides a bridge between measured emission reductions and changes in the ambient environment. Resources under this initiative would be applied to analyze specific primary and transformed emission products in ambient air and in atmospheric deposition (e.g., nitrogen oxide, particle nitrate) over relevant geographic areas.

2.Predicted air quality and atmospheric deposition improvements

Resources would be applied to enhance the predictive capability to address whether emissions reductions have resulted in the expected improvements in air quality and deposition, for example:

Reduced ozone, PM2.5 concentrations

Reduced deposition of NOx transformations (e.g., wet and dry deposition of nitrate)

Diagnostic species (e.g., peroxides, nitric acid, ammonia) useful for model evaluations and interpreting dynamic changes in the atmosphere associated emissions reductions

In addition to assessing whether the improvements have occurred, this would also entail assessing whether these improvements can be attributed to specific emission control strategies.This team's objective is to research and develop analytical tools that will quantify the effect of regional NOx emission reductions on ambient air quality, thus providing a measure of control stategy accountability.

Description:

This is the first phase of a potentially multi-phase project aimed at identifying scientific methodologies that will lead to the development of innnovative analytical tools supporting the analysis of control strategy effectiveness, namely. accountabilty. Significant reductions in NOx emissions from stationary sources have occurred in the Eastern USA and additional reductions are anticipated in the future. These emission reductions have been required to reduce the troposheric ozone levels based primarily on computer modeling. The NOx RACT rule (NE OTR), CAAA Title IV, NOx SIP call, and the Section 126 rule all require NOx emission reductions throughout the Eastern USA from major sources. In addition, significant future reductions are expected from mobile sources, diesel engine rules, and the Clear Skies initiative or CAIR. Given the significant costs for these emission control measures, it is important to demostrate the effectiveness of these rules through analysis of modeling outputs and observations and our track progress in improving air quality.

Record Details:

Record Type:PROJECT

Start Date:08/01/2003

Projected Completion Date:09/01/2005

OMB Category:Other

Record ID: 80863

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Project Information:

Progress :1. The statistical analysis and modeling workgroup has completed a technical report that is currently undergoing internal peer review prior to publication. It is titled "Interannual Variation in Meteorologically Adjusted Ozone Levels in the Eastern United States: A Comparison of Two Approaches".

2. Emission based air quality modeling utilizing CMAQ for 2002 and 2004 has been completed ( 2x2 grid) for the eastern USA including meteorological data imfluence runs for analysis. These computer runs will be analyzed by different PI's in a effort determine if there is a disernable signal to noise ratio that allows a determination of the effectiveness of major air emission control programs that took effect between 2002 and 2004 such as full implemetation of the NOx SIP call rules. Analysis and use of EGU CEM emissions data has resulted in a very accurate emissions inventory for the major point sources and their resultant control levels during the time period of interest.

3. Analysis of air quality monitoring results for N species from several long term ambient monitoring networks has resulted in several draft and final published reports including "Effects of Missing Seasonal Data on Estimates of Period Means of Wet and Dry Deposition." J. E. Sickles, II (US EPA) and D. S. Shadwick (CSC) and "Seasonal and Regional Air Quality and Atmospheric Deposition in the Eastern U.S." J. E. Sickles, II (US EPA) and D. S. Shadwick (CSC.

4. Analysis of meteorogical influence on ozone levels for the pre-SIP call and post-SIP call periods and the results are documented in the paper "An Examination of the Impact of the Reduction in the Emissions of Nitrogen Oxides on Ozone Air Quality over the Eastern United States" which is being submitted to the Journal of Applied Meteorology.

A new task that will build upon the products of this initiative will be proposed to futher address the development and use of tools that will enable and enhance air quality management accounatbility programs. Future work may focus on implementation and effectiveness of the CAIR and proposed toxins control rules.

All planned products from this initiative are expected to be completed in 2006 and will be listed in TIMS as appropriate. All modeling results will be made available to PI's for additional analysis.



Relevance :This initiative requests resources to ensure a robust environmental monitoring, assessment, and predictive capacity for determining the outcomes and effectiveness of ongoing and planned NOx emissions reductions. Over the next two decades, we expect dramatic improvements in multiple air quality and atmospheric deposition problems driven by major reductions in NOx emissions. NOx SIP Call will start as early as 2003; mobile source rules (heavy duty diesel rule (HDD); non-road engine rule and Tier 2 engine standards) start as early as 2004 (Tier 2), and accelerate in 2007 (HDD) and into 2020 (proposed non-road); proposed Clear Skies Act (CSA) to impact emissions reductions from power generation sources starting in 2008, or a potential PM transport rule effective in 2010 if Clear Skies is not enacted. In addition, significant emission reductions from ozone and PM State Implementation Plans (SIPs) as well as other existing CAA regulations (Section 126, Title 4) are projected.

These control stategies will result in the largest reductions of regional nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions in history, accompanied by substantial reductions in sulfur dioxide (SO2), particulate matter (PM), volatile organic carbon (VOC), and potential reductions in mercury emissions. Collectively, NOx emissions reductions of more than 6 million tons are projected from 2003 to 2020. These NOx emission reductions are expected to lead to significant reductions of downwind ambient O3 and PM concentrations, thereby mitigating the detrimental effects on human health and ecology, as well as reducing direct nitrogen deposition to ecosystems. While the legislative mandates are in place for the NOx reductions, the research and monitoring aspects have not been developed to evaluate whether we met the emission reductions, whether the emission reductions resulted in the anticipated reductions in ozone and PM, and the health and welfare effects of the reductions. Did our control strategies result in the anticipated emission reductions; did our models accurately predict the outcomes of the control strategies; and what are the human and ecosystem health consequences of these reductions? A joint OAR/ORD initiative could focuse on measuring environmental outcomes based on an integrated environmental assessment model - assessing and documenting relationships between emissions, air quality, atmospheric deposition, and effects to public health and ecosystems. In order to accomplish this, there are several areas that need to be addressed.

a. Existing Network enhancements to observe emission reductions in ambient air and atmospheric deposition: Ambient air monitoring and atmospheric deposition network improvements are required in order to provide data capable of confirming the emissions reductions and supply information on diagnostic chemical species to use in model evaluation and monitored trend interpretation. Analyses of the existing and planned ambient monitoring, including PAMS, NAMS/SLAMS, CASTNet, NADP, IMPROVE, PM2.5, STN, and NCORE are currently underway and will result in sound measurement network design changes to address the data needs. The current networks will provide ozone and PM measurements. The proposed monitoring enhancements will add additional monitoring for nitrogen including true NOx, NOy, nitric acid, and ammonia. These species measurements focused in urban/rural pairs will allow diagnostic model testing and data interpretation to evaluate the signal from point and mobile source NOx reductions.

b. Model evaluation and assessment: Resources would be used to determine if the models have accurately predicted the outcomes of the emission reductions in terms of air quality and atmospheric deposition improvements (e.g. did we predict an ozone decrease, and what was the outcome; did we predict a decrease in nitrogen deposition, and what was the outcome). In addition to measuring ozone and PM2.5 ( the secondary atmospheric pro

Clients :Rich Scheffe 541-4650

Project IDs:

ID Code :17772

Project type :OMIS