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LONG-TERM PROJECTIONS OF EASTERN OYSTER POPULATIONS UNDER VARIOUS MANAGEMENT SCENARIOS
Citation:
Jordan, S J. AND J. M. Coakley. LONG-TERM PROJECTIONS OF EASTERN OYSTER POPULATIONS UNDER VARIOUS MANAGEMENT SCENARIOS. JOURNAL OF SHELLFISH RESEARCH 23(1):63-72, (2004).
Impact/Purpose:
Journal article
Description:
Time series of fishery-dependent and fishery-independent data were used to parameterize a model of oyster population dynamics for Maryland's Chesapeake Bay. Model parameters are (1) fishing mortality, estimated from differences between predicted and reported landings scaled to a fishery-independent estimate of exploitation rate; (2) natural mortality, estimated from the ratio of dead to live oysters in fishery-independent survey; (3) recruitment, estimated from annual changes in the market oyster stock and total mortality rates; and (4) carrying capacity, estimated from predicted densities of oysters in the absence of either exploitation or excess mortality from parasitic diseases, multiplied by charted areas of high quality and marginal habitat. The model predicts continuing decline in population abundance and biomass in the absence of significant management intervention. Moderate decreases in fishing mortality, alone or in combination with increases in recruitment through stock enhancement, could reverse recent population trends, resulting in a larger population and improved harvests within 1-2 decades, even if currently high rates of natural mortality are sustained.