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ASPEN / EMS-HAP AIR TOXICS ASSESSMENTS
Impact/Purpose:
Extend assessments and estimate uncertainties of ASPEN/EMS-HAP applications to current and future year inventories, projections, and strategies.
Description:
In response to a Congressional mandate and reviews by the Science Advisory Board, a program has been initiated to assess uncertainties of the ASPEN national scale assessment for 1996. Through a panel of national experts and use of state-of-the-art techniques both qualitative and quantitative estimates of uncertainties in that assessment are being developed, and will be publicly released when completed. The uncertainty assessment may also lead to improvements in modeling treatments for deposition, chemical transformation, dispersion, estimation of background concentrations, and treatments of emissions allocation techniques. These uncertainty estimation techniques will be used in future ASPEN/EMS-HAP applications that involve new base year inventories, projections to future years, and alternative emission reduction strategies for toxic pollutants.