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SIMULATED CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECTS ON DISSOLVED OXYGEN CHARACTERISTICS IN ICE-COVERED LAKES. (R824801)
Citation:
Xing, F. AND H. Stefan. SIMULATED CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECTS ON DISSOLVED OXYGEN CHARACTERISTICS IN ICE-COVERED LAKES. (R824801). TRANSACTIONS OF THE AMERICAN FISHERIES SOCIETY. Elsevier Science Ltd, New York, NY, 103(2-3):209-229, (1997).
Description:
A deterministic, one-dimensional model is presented which simulates daily dissolved oxygen (DO) profiles and associated water temperatures, ice covers and snow covers for dimictic and polymictic lakes of the temperate zone. The lake parameters required as model input are surface area (AS), maximum depth (HMAX), and Secchi depth as a measure of light attenuation and trophic state. The model is driven by daily weather data and operates year-round over multiple years. The model has been validated with extensive data (5976 points). Standard error between simulated and measured dissolved oxygen is 1.9 mg/l. The model is applied to simulate effects of climate change on dissolved oxygen characteristics of 27 lake classes in Minnesota. The projected climate changes due to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 are obtained from the output of the Canadian Climate Center Global Circulation Model (CCC GCM). Climate change delays the ice formation and shortens the ice cover period. Winter anoxia, even in shallow lakes, therefore disappears under a projected 2 × CO2 climate condition. This eliminates winterkill in these lakes. Herein, the simulated DO characteristics have been plotted and interpolated graphically in a coordinate system with a lake geometry ratio (
) on one axis and Secchi depth on the other. The lake geometry ratio expresses a lake's susceptibility to stratification. To illustrate the effect of projected climate change on DO characteristics, separate graphs are presented for values simulated with inputs of past climate conditions (1961-79) and with a projected 2 × CO2 climate scenario.
Author Keywords: Lake; Dissolved oxygen; Climate effect; Ice cover; Stratified lake; Water quality; Fish habitat