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NEW DEVELOPMENTS OF VISUAL PLUMES - EVALUATION OF BACTERIAL POLLUTION
Citation:
Frick, W E., D. J. Baumgartner, D. L. Denton, AND P. W. Roberts. NEW DEVELOPMENTS OF VISUAL PLUMES - EVALUATION OF BACTERIAL POLLUTION. Presented at 2nd International Conference on Marine Waste Water Discharges, Istanbul, Turkey, September 16-20, 2002.
Impact/Purpose:
This research project sets out to design and conduct an assessment of the long-term ecological consequences of alternative watershed management choices. As the first project to be done at this scale using predictive ecological endpoints, we will seek to identify the appropriate components of such an analysis. We will use experience gained in the conduct of this analysis to identify key research and data needs for future analyses. We will extend this analysis beyond previous and ongoing studies in two ways: by incorporating biological endpoints, primarily properties of fish communities, and by introducing the concept of sustainability of ecological state under future scenarios contrasted with the present state of those same ecological resources. Requirements that are identified during the course of this study will permit the recommendation of specific capabilities that should be incorporated in a general modeling system currently under development to support environmental assessments. Finally, the analysis is intended to be of value for establishing environmental management choices that will be beneficial and those that would be detrimental to the sustainability of ecological resources. Specific objectives are listed below:
1. Develop watershed-based modeling systems to forecast the effectiveness of alternative management plans in meeting sediment-related, nutrient-related, pathogen-related, and toxics-related criteria and standards, and biologically-based criteria and standards; and
2. Develop and maintain a comprehensive technical support capability that directly links environmental TMDL exposure research activities and products for the EPA Office of Water, EPA Regional Offices, and the States to be used for implementation of policy, regulatory development, remediation, and enforcement needs.
Description:
Virulent or innocuous, high bacteria concentrations can force health authorities to close beaches, to the regret of the public and the communities that depend on the tourist trade for their livelihood. But, with real-time identification and measurement still in the future, often, by the time the incident has occurred, the potential danger has passed and perfectly safe beaches go unenjoyed (as many test are based on harmless indicator bacteria). Instead, if reliable predictive models could be developed to accurately predict surfzone bacterial concentrations, the number of beach closures might be reduced significantly. Monitoring would serve the role of assuring model efficacy. The U.S. EPA Visual Plumes model is used to demonstrate how such a modeling system may ultimately function. It is also used to identify potential engineering practices, such as port design, to achieve greater rise to optimize the antiseptic effect of sunlight; to minimize nearshore impacts. Areas for immediate model improvement are identified and related potential health issues, such as toxics, are discussed.