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SCENARIO ANALYSIS FOR THE SAN PEDRO RIVER, ANALYZING HYDROLOGICAL CONSEQUENCES FOR A FUTURE ENVIRONMENT
Citation:
Kepner, W G., D J. Semmens, D. C. Goodrich, D A. Mouat, AND S. D. Bassett. SCENARIO ANALYSIS FOR THE SAN PEDRO RIVER, ANALYZING HYDROLOGICAL CONSEQUENCES FOR A FUTURE ENVIRONMENT. Presented at Using Science to Assess Environmental Vulnerabilities - A ReVA MAIA Conference, King of Prussia, PA, May 13-15, 2003.
Impact/Purpose:
The primary objectives of this research are to:
Develop methodologies so that landscape indicator values generated from different sensors on different dates (but in the same areas) are comparable; differences in metric values result from landscape changes and not differences in the sensors;
Quantify relationships between landscape metrics generated from wall-to-wall spatial data and (1) specific parameters related to water resource conditions in different environmental settings across the US, including but not limited to nutrients, sediment, and benthic communities, and (2) multi-species habitat suitability;
Develop and validate multivariate models based on quantification studies;
Develop GIS/model assessment protocols and tools to characterize risk of nutrient and sediment TMDL exceedence;
Complete an initial draft (potentially web based) of a national landscape condition assessment.
This research directly supports long-term goals established in ORDs multiyear plans related to GPRA Goal 2 (Water) and GPRA Goal 4 (Healthy Communities and Ecosystems), although funding for this task comes from Goal 4. Relative to the GRPA Goal 2 multiyear plan, this research is intended to "provide tools to assess and diagnose impairment in aquatic systems and the sources of associated stressors." Relative to the Goal 4 Multiyear Plan this research is intended to (1) provide states and tribes with an ability to assess the condition of waterbodies in a scientifically defensible and representative way, while allowing for aggregation and assessment of trends at multiple scales, (2) assist Federal, State and Local managers in diagnosing the probable cause and forecasting future conditions in a scientifically defensible manner to protect and restore ecosystems, and (3) provide Federal, State and Local managers with a scientifically defensible way to assess current and future ecological conditions, and probable causes of impairments, and a way to evaluate alternative future management scenarios.
Description:
Studies of future management and policy options based on different assumptions provide a mechanism to examine possible outcomes and especially their likely benefits and consequences. The San Pedro River in Arizona and Sonora, Mexico is an area that has undergone rapid changes in land use and cover and subsequently is facing keen environmental crises related to water resources. It is the location of a number of studies that have dealt with change analysis, watershed condition, and most recently, alternative futures analysis. The previous work has primarily dealt with resources of habitat and groundwater related to human development patterns and preferences. In the present study, future options were examined relative to their impact on surface water conditions, e.g. sediment yield and surface runoff. These hydrological outputs were estimated for the baseline year of 2000 and predicted twenty years in the future using hydrological process models and spatially oriented land use models based on stakeholder preferences and historical growth.