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QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT FOR MICROBIAL AGENTS
Citation:
Cicmanec*, J L. QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT FOR MICROBIAL AGENTS. Presented at National Ground Water Association's Innovative Approaches to Ground Water Disinfection: Coliforms, Pathogens, and Treatment, Sacramento, CA, 9/05-06/2002.
Description:
Compared to chemical risk assessment, the process for microbial agents and infectious disease is more complex because of host factors and the variety of settings in which disease transmission can occur. While the National Academy of Science has established a paradigm for performing chemical risk assessments, the procedures to be used for pathogenic organisms is still being developed by a variety of scientific organizations for a range of various exposure scenarios including food safety, exposure to recreational waters, and for potential exposure to biosolids. There are four general methods that are either in use or being developed. They include: use of epidemiological information, infectious dose-response modeling, decision tree/event tree analysis, and the systems analysis approach. Each one has its advantages and limitations and depending on the available data, or lack there of, and the exposure setting one approach may be favored over the others. This presentation will include examples of each and the procedures for validating one method by the use of another will also be provided. Perhaps the greatest advances have been made in the area of food safety risk which has been driven by necessity. Recent examples of E. coli O157:H7 transmission via ground beef and Salmonellosis via eggs and poultry neat are well known and they are used extensively. This presentation will also include discussion of organism virulence, varying host susceptibility, and environmental factors that affect disease transmission. A discussion of infectivity assays will also be included.