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LAND USE CHANGE DUE TO URBANIZATION FOR THE NEUSE RIVER BASIN
Citation:
Matheny, R W. AND T Flum. LAND USE CHANGE DUE TO URBANIZATION FOR THE NEUSE RIVER BASIN. Presented at Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry, Philadelphia, PA, November 12-14, 1999.
Description:
The Urban Growth Model (UGM) was applied to analysis of land use change in the Neuse River Basin as part of a larger project for estimating the regional and broader impact of urbanization. UGM is based on cellular automation (CA) simulation techniques developed at the University of California, Santa Barbara, to predict urban growth. The model uses multiple data sources including topology, road networks, and changes in land use during four different time periods. The rules are more complex than those of a typical CA as the control parameters of the model "self modify" during model runs to best match the pattern of urban growth and other land use changes observed over time. The model was calibrated using land use data from 1950, 1970, 1980, and 1990 at the 1 kilometer scale and best parameters were selected from a suite of model runs made using Monte Carlo methods. Probabilistic predictions were then made using Monte Carlo techniques based on the parameter estimates obtained from the calibration runs and 1992 land use data at 30 meter resolution for 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2020. Animated dynamic mapping of the simulation results provided as part of the UGM software package were used to visualize the past and predicted future change of urban growth in the Neuse River Basin.