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MODELING WILDLIFE RESPONSE TO LANDSCAPE CHANGE IN OREGON'S WILLAMETTE RIVER BASIN
Citation:
Schumaker, N H. AND T. L. Ernst. MODELING WILDLIFE RESPONSE TO LANDSCAPE CHANGE IN OREGON'S WILLAMETTE RIVER BASIN. Presented at Society for Conservation Biology annual meeting, Hilo, Hawaii, July 29-August 2, 2001.
Description:
The PATCH simulation model was used to predict the response of 17 wildlife species to
three plausible scenarios of habitat change in Oregon's Willamette River Basin. This 30
thousand square-kilometer basin comprises about 12% of the state of Oregon, encompasses extensive forested and agricultural lands, and is home to 68% of the state's population. 1990 landscape conditions were represented with a 30-meter resolution GIS map that contained 34 habitat types and was derived from classified satellite imagery. In addition, three images for year 2050 were developed that showed how the basin might look if existing land use practices remained in effect, if management shifted to emphasize development, and if policies changed in favor of increased conservation. A literature survey produced sufficient survival, reproduction, and movement data to conduct PATCH simulations for 17 birds and mammals, and the model was run for each of the species and four landscapes. Response to the changing landscapes varied greatly between the species. Attempts to anticipate the model predictions using measures of habitat quality met with varied success, and the failures provide detailed theoretical examples of how a simple population viability analysis might fail to meet its conservation goals.