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A SALMON-CENTRIC VIEW OF THE 21ST CENTURY IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
Citation:
Lackey, R T. A SALMON-CENTRIC VIEW OF THE 21ST CENTURY IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. Presented at World Summit on Salmon, Vancouver, British Columbia, June 10-13, 2003.
Description:
Throughout the far western United States (California, Oregon, Washington, and Idaho), many wild salmon stocks have declined and some have disappeared. The decline has taken place over the past 150 years, but there have been decades when the pattern has been upward, but, overall, wild salmon runs generally are now less than 10% of 1850 levels. The decline was caused by a well known, but poorly understood, combination of factors, including unfavorable ocean or climatic conditions; excessive commercial, recreational, and subsistence fishing; various farming and ranching practices; dams built for electricity generation, flood control, irrigation, and other purposes; water diversions for agricultural, municipal, or commercial requirements; hatchery production to supplement diminished runs or produce salmon for the retail market; degraded salmon spawning and rearing habitat; predation by marine mammals, birds, and other fish species; competition, especially with exotic fish species; diseases and parasites; loss of marine-derived nutrients from the decomposition of much reduced salmon runs; and possibly others. The runs remain relatively low for many of the same factors that caused the original decline. In spite of the failure of nearly every effort to restore runs of wild salmon, the policy goal of restoring runs of wild runs appears still to enjoy widespread public support. Billions of dollars continue to be spent in a so-far failed attempt to reverse the long-term decline. How can it be that the direct causes of the decline are reasonably well known, have been studied in great detail, and the public appears to be supportive of changing the downward trajectory for wild salmon, yet the long-term prognosis is poor? The answer is that effecting any change in the long-term downward trend for wild salmon is futile in the absence of shifts in the core drivers. Except for climate and ocean conditions, two core drivers over which society has minimal control, the other core drivers are ones society can control: (1) the economic rules of the game, especially the international and domestic drive for economic efficiency; (2) the increasing scarcity and competition for key natural resources, especially for high quality water; (3) the rapidly increasing numbers of humans in the region and the requirement to meet their basic needs; and (4) individual and collective life style choices and priorities. Without substantial changes in these four, interrelated core drivers, the status of wild salmon through this century will likely follow the documented path of the past 150 years. Based on observed current behaviors and choices, there is little indication that the public appears be willing to change the core drivers in the near term. Not all salmon restoration options require draconian changes in these drivers. There are options that are likely to be ecologically viable and appreciably less socially disruptive than current strategies, but these options also have much more modest restoration objectives, require extensive hatchery or other aquacultural intervention, and/or involve creating protected areas.