Description:

The primary objective of the proposed research is to determine whether expected changes in the composition of the U.S. population by household type over the next 25-100 years will have a substantial influence on total energy demand and carbon dioxide emissions. Specific aims for achieving this overall goal are (1) to develop a set of long-term household projections that characterize plausible ranges of the future distribution of households by size, age, composition, and other demographic characteristics, including nativity; (2) to quantify how consumption patterns vary across households of different types; (3) to introduce disaggregated household types into an existing energy-economic growth model of the U.S. to test the effect of accounting for demographic heterogeneity in energy and emissions projections, including the potential effects of alternative immigration scenarios.

URLs/Downloads:

2003 Progress Report

2004 Progress Report

URL

Final Progress Report

2005 Progress Report

Record Details:

Record Type:PROJECT( ABSTRACT )

Start Date:09/01/2002

Completion Date:09/30/2005

Record ID: 57484

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Related Organizations:

Role :OWNER

Organization Name :BROWN UNIVERSITY

Mailing Address :Prospect St

Citation :Providence

State :RI

Zip Code :2912



Role :OWNER

Organization Name :MAX PLANCK INSTITUTE FOR DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH

Mailing Address :Doberaner Str. 114, D-18057

Citation :Rostock



Role :OWNER

Organization Name :CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY - MONTEREY BAY

Mailing Address :100 Campus Ctr

Citation :Seaside

State :CA

Zip Code :93955

Project Information:

Approach :The approach will be to introduce distinct categories of households by type into the Population-Environment-Technology (PET) model, a state of the art computable general equilibrium model of energy and economic growth developed at Stanford University and CSU Monterey Bay to explore scenarios for future energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions. Appropriate household categories will be determined by statistical analysis of Consumer Expenditure Survey data to determine how patterns of consumption vary by household type. The PET model translates consumption of various goods into demand for energy and resulting carbon dioxide emissions, allowing the total energy requirements of household consumption to be accounted for within a general equilibrium framework. A set of household projections for the U.S. will be created by using recently developed methodology that allows household distributions to be projected in great detail. We will produce an array of scenarios that fully characterize the uncertainty in future household distributions.

Cost :$279,015.00

Research Component :Economics and Decision Sciences

Project IDs:

ID Code :R829801

Project type :EPA Grant